Here's a deep look at the global oil market and all the efforts to save it

Dow Jones03-14 01:15

MW Here's a deep look at the global oil market and all the efforts to save it

By Philip van Doorn

Also in Weekend Reads: The technical case for the S&P 500 to fall 10%, private-credit fears, safe havens for investors, and advice from the Moneyist

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has risen 44% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Every day, there are new developments that affect the price of oil. Early on Friday, oil prices were down. But in midday action, front-month contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude oil (CL00) were trading for $96.83 a barrel - up 1% from Thursday's settlement price of $95.73, and up 44% from the settlement price of $67.02 on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

This week, the International Energy Agency, which has 32 member countries, announced the group would release 400 billion barrels of oil from reserves, at a time when the international flow of oil had declined by an estimated 15 million barrels a day, according to Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests.

In her regular Commodities Corner column, Myra P. Saefong took a detailed look at efforts by the U.S. and other countries to stabilize the oil market, and what prices and trading patterns were indicating for the longer term.

More coverage of the oil market:

-- Why a 1980s conflict may be the best market analog for the current Iran situation

-- Trump is tapping America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to fight rising gasoline prices. How much oil is left in it now?

-- Trump's next move to stop oil's surge may involve a shipping law from 1920

-- Crude oil is trading like a 'meme stock,' these charts show

-- This oil company's top executives cashed in as the stock climbed to a 16-month high

-- Oil surge sparks Treasury market's worst weekly rout since 'liberation day' chaos

The private-credit saga

If only it were this easy to take money out of a private-credit fund.

Redemption requests from investors in private-credit funds have been mounting, which causes headaches for fund managers who need to limit redemptions to avoid selling illiquid loans at heavy discounts. Much of the action has been driven by the perceived threat to certain software developers, as their market may shrink as potential customers deploy artificial-intelligence technology.

Many of the asset managers of private-credit funds, hedge funds and business development companies are publicly traded, which has been an important factor in the 11.2% decline for the S&P 500 financials sector XX:SP500.40 this year through Thursday. That is the largest price decline for any of the index's 11 sectors.

Here is a sampling of this week's private-credit coverage at MarketWatch:

-- The chorus of disapproval for private credit gets louder as Morgan Stanley fund is the latest to cap withdrawals

-- More pain in private credit with JPMorgan reportedly tightening lending while a $33 billion fund sees heavy redemptions

-- Brett Arends: Investor who lost everything in private credit wishes several thousand more people had warned him of the risks

As AI threatens some industries, it can help others: These stocks may offer a haven for investors amid private-credit troubles

Why this veteran trader expects the S&P 500 to fall 10% from here

For most nonprofessional investors, the history of broad declines in the stock market has shown that it has been best to be patient, because attempts to time the market are likely to fail. If an investor sells into a declining market to sit on the sidelines until the market turns, the tendency is to come back to the market well after a sustained recovery has started. This can end up hurting long-term returns, with the timer underperforming an investor who stayed put.

But traders and short-term investors are wondering what to expect from here. Through Thursday, the S&P 500 SPX had declined 2.5% for 2026.

Lawrence McMillan, who published his weekly column for options traders late on Thursday, believes this is "a good time to take risk off the table." He outlined a strategy for options traders ahead of an expected 10% decline for the S&P 500 from here.

Related coverage:

-- Options traders are pricing in 'disaster' as Iran conflict intensifies. Here's how investors might profit.

-- How to protect your portfolio from Iran-related chaos as traditional safety plays fail

Potential safe havens for investors amid fears over oil prices and falling stock prices

Mark Hulbert looked back at previous geopolitical crises to identify stocks that tended to rise as others declined. Here is his list of 11 stocks to harden your portfolio against Iran risk.

Surprise: The S&P 500's biggest gainer since the Iran conflict started is not an oil stock

Another idea from Hulbert: Here's a rare chance to invest before big stock-index funds and Wall Street dive in

And here are the results of two screens of U.S.-listed energy stocks this week:

-- This may be the best way to play energy stocks if oil stays above $80 a barrel

-- Three energy stocks look like bargains as the Iran conflict drags on

News about companies

Campbell's lowered its outlook for sales and earnings, helping to push its stock to a 23-year low.

Tomi Kilgore and Bill Peters reported on Campbell's $(CPB)$, whose stock fell to its lowest price in 23 years after the company cut its outlook for sales and profit. During a conference call, Campbell's CEO Mick Beekhuizen said the company needed to become more competitive "from a pricing perspective." He was contradicted by MarketWatch readers, who outlined a different strategy for Campbell's in their comments.

More from MarketWatch's companies coverage:

-- Ulta Beauty's stock heads for worst day in 2 years as consumers get pickier about cosmetics

-- The charts warn that airline stocks face more worries than just rising oil prices

-- United Airlines just set a daily record for bookings, but that isn't helping the stock

-- 'Cruising used to feel special.' Cruise lines were struggling even before the Iran conflict.

A comforting explanation of Social Security's spousal and survivor benefits

In her Help Me Retire column, Alessandra Malito helped a MarketWatch reader by explaining how Social Security simplifies the process of applying for spousal, individual or survivor benefits.

What if you are sandwiched, caring for your parents as you help your children?

A caregiver for an elderly parent may also have to help their own child while not forgetting to take care of themselves.

This week in her Fix My Portfolio column, Beth Pinsker shared advice with a reader who is under pressure from the need to care for her mother, who is suffering from dementia, while also worrying about how to pay for her child's education.

More from Beth Pinsker: The truth behind 401(k) withdrawal numbers: People aren't being reckless - they're desperate

Tech developments

Here is a sampling of this week's coverage from MarketWatch's technology team:

-- Salesforce makes a big splash in the debt market so it can quickly buy back 14% of its stock

-- How AI could drive a renaissance for blue-collar workers

-- Oracle's stock surges. Here's how it finally left the AI penalty box.

-- Rivian is fulfilling its promise to launch a $45,000 EV, but there's a catch

-- Quantum-computing technology may not be so futuristic after all, according to IBM

How to get paid as you complain

Don't Short Yourself - MarketWatch's new weekly newsletter - offers smart tips to help you earn and grow your money.

In this week's Don't Short Yourself newsletter, Charles Passy shared a lesson about how lucrative it can be to write a letter of complaint.

The Moneyist

Quentin Fottrell is the Moneyist.

Quentin Fottrell - the Moneyist - answered questions from a reader considering a move from New Jersey to Florida. As a senior, she is worried about longer wait times for healthcare in Florida. Fottrell addressed that concern, but then may have surprised the reader with this advice on a different topic.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Here's a deep look at the global oil market and all the efforts to save it

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