Gold miners could double even if bullion stalls, says Ninepoint portfolio manager

Kitco03-13

(Kitco News) - Gold’s historic rally has captured investors’ attention, and now the real opportunity may lie in gold mining equities, according to one portfolio managerIn an interview with Kitco News,...

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But this is actually how these cycles start. This could be a very big one.”Wachowiak explained that the current gold rally has unfolded differently from past cycles. Instead of equity investors driving the move from the start, the rally was initially fueled by central banks accumulating physical gold, a trend that began in 2022 and continues today.That shift fundamentally changed the dynamics of the market.“The rally started with central bank buying of physical gold,” she said. “Equity investors—whether institutional or retail—were not part of that first phase.”Wachowiak explained that since 2024, most investors have been focused on technology stocks and the artificial intelligence boom. With major tech names delivering strong returns, gold and mining stocks remained largely overlooked. She added that it was not until geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and economic uncertainty intensified in 2025 that institutional investors began reconsidering gold for its role as a safe-haven asset.As a result, Wachowiak argues that the rally in gold mining equities is still relatively young.“From an equities perspective, the move is less than a year old,” she said. “Gold ran for a long time before the equities really came to life.”That lag has created what she describes as a significant valuation disconnect between the gold price and the companies that produce it. Mining stocks remain historically inexpensive relative to both the gold price and broader equity markets, suggesting there is still considerable upside if valuations return to long-term averages.Another factor supporting the sector is the growing recognition of gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier, particularly in an environment marked by geopolitical tension, persistent deficits, and discussions around de-dollarization.“Gold can serve as insurance in a portfolio,” Wachowiak said. “It helps hedge currency risk, geopolitical risk, and provides diversification through exposure to a hard asset.”She also noted that the gold mining industry is relatively small compared with other sectors, meaning even modest shifts in investor allocations could have a large impact on prices.“We’re not talking about investors putting 10% of their portfolios into gold,” she said. “Even a 5% allocation can make a meaningful difference because the sector itself is so small.”Within the mining space, Wachowiak said she sees a clear progression in where capital flows during a bull market. The first wave typically targets the largest and most liquid producers, which benefit from ETF inflows and institutional buying.However, she believes the next stage of the cycle—where money begins moving further down the market-cap spectrum—has yet to fully unfold.“The large-cap producers are getting attention, but developers and explorers haven’t really moved yet,” she said. “That’s usually where you see the biggest upside once investors become more comfortable with the sector.”Wachowiak said Ninepoint is positioning their portfolio accordingly. Roughly half of the fund remains invested in producing companies, while the remainder is allocated to developers and exploration companies that could represent the next generation of mines.Producers still offer strong fundamentals, she noted, with many generating robust cash flow and returning capital to shareholders through buybacks. However, most major miners face another challenge: limited growth.“The average reserve life for producers is about 12 years, and many of them don’t have strong pipelines,” she said. “Eventually they will need to replenish those reserves, and that means acquisitions or investments further down the development chain.”This dynamic could ultimately benefit junior mining companies as producers look to secure future projects.While Wachowiak remains optimistic about gold itself, she said she believes mining equities could deliver even greater returns. In her view, gold prices do not necessarily need to rise dramatically for mining stocks to generate significant gains.“I can easily see equities doubling—or more—from here,” she said. “Gold doesn’t need to double for that to happen.”Even if gold prices simply stabilize around current levels, she argues that strong margins and improving investor interest could still drive substantial value creation in the mining sector.“The sector has never been as healthy as it is now,” she said. “Strong balance sheets, strong cash flow, and companies returning capital to shareholders—these are very strong businesses that happen to produce gold.”Looking further ahead, Wachowiak said she sees a broader structural shift taking place across the entire metals and mining industry. In addition to traditional economic cycles, three powerful forces—geopolitics, technological growth, and the global energy transition—are increasingly driving long-term demand for metals.Those structural drivers, she said, could create opportunities for investors for years to come.“This isn’t a six-month opportunity,” she said. “It’s a decade-long opportunity. There will be ups and downs, but the world needs more investment in metals and mining.”For investors who believe the gold bull market is already over, Wachowiak’s message is clear: the equity phase of the cycle is only just getting started.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2619128116","isCrawlerRequest":true}