Carnival Drops 22% This Month As Unhedged Fuel Strategy Backfires

Benzinga_recent_news03-13 22:32

Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) is up 3% today as oil pulls back slightly, but the stock is still down 22% this month, with Brent crude trading over $90. Carnival is the only major cruise operator that does...

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Carnival doesn't hedge fuel purchases, unlike RCL and NCLH. Oil spike may cut earnings by $0.20. Traders predict low chance of oil falling to $80 or normal shipping in Strait of Hormuz by April 30. Recession chances up to 34%. Carnival to report Q1 earnings on March 20, but unlikely to change fuel strategy. 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It is working less well now.\nRoyal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE:RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) both hedge the majority of their fuel exposure. RCL is down 3% this year, NCLH 14%.\nWilliam Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia estimates the oil spike could cut roughly $0.20 from Carnival’s full-year earnings per share. \nGoldman Sachs cut its CCL price target to $30 from $34. Stifel lowered to $35 from $40 while maintaining a Buy.\nAs the war rages in the Middle East, Polymarket’s traders only give a 29% chance that oil retreats to $80, and a 10% chance  it hits $70 this month. \nA separate contract on whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by April 30 is trading at 44%. \nThirteen ships have been attacked since the war began on Feb. 28, and the IRGC said Wednesday it will not allow “a litre of oil” through for the benefit of the U.S. and its allies. Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Thursday the closure should continue as “a tool to pressure the enemy.”\nPolymarket’s U.S. recession contract has jumped from 21% in February to 34% now. \nCarnival reports Q1 earnings before the bell on March 20. Wall Street expects $0.18 EPS on roughly $6.1 billion in revenue. That guidance was set before oil doubled from its February lows. \nOne thing investors probably should not expect: a sudden change in fuel strategy. Even if management reversed course now, they would be locking in prices at the worst possible moment. \nThe more interesting question may come later: if oil eventually retreats, will Carnival lock in cheaper fuel then, or make the same bet twice.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2619153021","isCrawlerRequest":true}