Gold faces a perfect stagflation storm as Q4 GDP increases 0.7%

Kitco03-13

(Kitco News) - The gold market is once again caught in a short-term tug-of-war, holding support above $5,100 an ounce as stagflation fears reemerge, with the U.S. economy seeing slower growth in the ...

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Imports decreased less than previously estimated,” the report said.Along with disappointing growth estimates, the report also noted rising inflation pressures. The fourth-quarter price index for GDP increased 3.8%, up from 3.6% reported in the first estimate.Providing a more nuanced look at inflation, the BEA also released Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January, including the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.The report said that headline inflation increased 0.3%, compared to December’s 0.4% increase. Consumer prices appear to be rising in line with economists' expectations.Over the last 12 months, headline inflation rose 2.8%, down slightly from December’s annual reading of 2.9%.The report said the core PCE index increased 0.4% in the first month of the new year, unchanged from December. Inflation rose in line with expectations.For the year, core PCE rose 2.9%, down from 3.0% reported in December. Core inflation was slightly cooler than expected, as economists had been looking for an increase to 3.1%.Although inflation was relatively cooler than expected at the start of the year, many economists are largely ignoring the backward-looking data, as the U.S.-Israel joint war against Iran is generating significant economic uncertainty.The chaos in the Middle East is creating global supply-chain bottlenecks and, in particular, driving oil prices higher, which are expected to push inflation higher through the year.The latest economic report puts gold in a difficult short-term position, as stubborn inflation could force the Federal Reserve to maintain its neutral monetary policy longer than expected.However, many market analysts have said that a potential stagflationary environment is the perfect storm for gold. Analysts also expect that even in the face of higher inflation, the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates to support the U.S. labor market and economy.This environment will push real yields sharply lower, improving gold’s opportunity cost as a non-yielding asset. Currently, gold prices are seeing a modest benefit in their initial reaction to the disappointing GDP data and outdated inflation numbers. Spot gold last traded at $5,120.16, up almost 1% on the day.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2619180197","isCrawlerRequest":true}