Wall Street has heeded a host of superstitions over its 230-year history, with traders wise to the bad mojo of using a red pen, the importance of wearing the same necktie during a winning streak, and always "sell in May and go away."
It's also linked to the modern evolution of Friday the 13th as an unlucky day, based in part on Thomas Lawson's 1907 best-seller about a corrupt stockbroker who crashes the market.
Bad omens abound as investors look to close out the second week of trading since the U.S. war with Iran, with oil trading firmly north of $100 a barrel, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, the VIX, nearing the 30-point mark -- a level that usually signals extreme market stress -- and bond market volatility finally awakening from its yearlong slumber.
Stocks are looking weaker, as well, with the S&P 500 having fallen around 3% since the U.S. launched its first wave of attacks on Feb. 28, dragging the index back to the lowest levels since late November.
What's perhaps even more worrying than the ancient belief of a back-luck Friday is the modern reality of market uncertainty.
Few experts are brave enough to predict when, or even how, the conflict is likely to end, or what the costs will ultimately be. And that grim calculus is coming soon.
Investors will first need to get past Friday, which the VIX reading suggests could see a near 120-points swing for the S&P 500 before the close of trading.
Friday, the Thirteenth author Lawson, himself a noted stock manipulator who used the mass media of his era to influence markets and make and lose a fortune, called it "the Wall Street hoodoo-day."
We'll all find out together if, with the original stock market superstition, life actually imitates art.
-- Martin Baccardax
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Importers Face New Challenges Under Trump's 'Plan B' Tariffs
The U.S. is starting to roll out its " Plan B" tariff strategy. The Trump administration is racing to rebuild tariff revenue it has lost since the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs it imposed using emergency powers. The latest shift creates a new set of complications for importers.
-- Though overall tariff rates could end up slightly lower, the impact from
this approach could possibly hit companies differently than the tariffs
President Donald Trump imposed last April with emergency powers. It could
also create winners and losers within sub-sectors.
-- U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is starting investigations under
Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, looking into structural excess
capacity and production in manufacturing sectors in China, the European
Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia,
Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, and India.
-- Canada and the United Kingdom weren't on this list, but Monica Gorman,
managing director at Crowley Global Advisors, cautions against
interpreting that they will be spared. She expects the administration to
unveil multiple and possibly overlapping Section 301 probes, including
one related to forced labor.
-- The challenge for importers: The tariffs that emerge from these probes
are unlikely to be identical to -- or hit sectors in the same way -- as
the tariffs that were struck down, requiring companies to conduct a new
round of analysis, says Ryan Majerus, partner at King & Spalding.
What's Next: The comment period starts March 17 with the USTR holding a hearing on May 5. Potential tariff remedies could follow. Trade lawyers anticipate the tariffs would be ready by July, when the temporary 10% tariffs Trump imposed in February expire. Exemptions could be far more limited.
-- Reshma Kapadia
CFTC Offers Its First Guidance for Sports Prediction Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is in active discussion with sports leagues over sports prediction markets and is advising prediction-market platforms to consider whether markets based on individual player performance, so-called prop bets, are susceptible to manipulation.
-- The regulator's division of market oversight has sent an advisory
document to designated contract markets, the regulator's term for those
companies licensed to sell event contracts, which is what prediction
markets do. This is as the CFTC prepares new rules for prediction markets
and seeks public comment.
-- The CFTC wants to make sure the platforms aren't listing contracts that
can be susceptible to manipulation, suggesting prediction markets may
want to think twice before listing sports contracts that resolve or
settle based on the action of a single individual. These prop bets are
big moneymakers for traditional sportsbooks.
-- The advisory said the CFTC is talking with sports leagues and their
governing bodies. Appropriate information sharing by these entities with
the CFTC may lead to enhanced CFTC oversight capabilities, it said. It
encourages prediction markets to work with leagues to ensure that
sports-related contracts resolve correctly.
-- Data-sharing and cooperation on integrity monitoring is common in
partnerships between sports leagues and traditional sportsbooks like the
one operated by DraftKings. But most pro leagues aren't working with
prediction markets, the NHL being an exception.
What's Next: More than 20 lawsuits are under way as courts decide whether event contracts that pay out when a team wins should be considered sports gambling subject to state regulation. Kalshi, the leading U.S. prediction market, told Barron's it looks forward to working with regulators to make markets fair and safe.
-- Nick Devor
Honda Latest to Unveil Losses as EV Winter Sets In
The EV winter is here, brought on by poor planning, overly ambitious sales targets, and changing government policies. Honda Motor announced losses of about $15.7 billion as it reassesses its electric vehicle strategy amid changing Trump administration policies and a slowdown in U.S. EV sales.
-- To respond to rapid changes in the current business environment, Honda
said it is making progress in reorganizing its strategic framework and
re-establishing its competitive strengths. That means fewer EVs, more
hybrids, and a better balance of better products in response to consumer
demand.
-- Ford Motor has announced $19.5 billion in EV-related charges, General
Motors $7.6 billion, and Chrysler's parent Stellantis $20 billion. Their
more than $60 billion in combined EV charges is one-third of their $180
billion in combined market value.
-- Separately, Rivian Automotive unveiled prices and specifications for its
long-awaited R2 Platform, a new truck that is supposed to unlock sales
growth during this difficult EV period. One of two premium versions
starts at $54,000, and two standard versions, coming in 2027, start at
$45,000.
-- Rivian's nearly $160 billion valuation in 2021 was based on the belief
that Americans would buy 3 million EVs in 2025. But EV sales were closer
to 1.3 million, flat with 2024, and about 8% of new U.S. car sales,
one-quarter China's rate.
What's Next: Chinese policies heavily incentivize EV purchases, and China's charging infrastructure is more developed. The Trump administration has rolled back several EV-friendly policies and plans for EV chargers. EV sales could fall 50% this year. Market leader Tesla has already turned its focus to AI.
-- Al Root and Janet H. Cho
Morgan Stanley Private Credit Fund Caps Withdrawals
Morgan Stanley's investment management arm became the latest asset manager to cap withdrawals from a private credit fund, telling investors in a letter that it saw a wave of redemption requests this quarter.
-- The company's North Haven Private Income Fund, which has $7.6 billion in
total investments, received investor requests to buy back around 10.9% of
outstanding shares in its quarterly tender offer. The fund capped
repurchases at 5%, its previously disclosed threshold.
-- The volume of withdrawal requests is further evidence of investors'
waning confidence in the health of private credit funds.
-- Blue Owl Capital and BlackRock have also limited withdrawals from certain
funds. And J.P. Morgan tightened lending to private credit funds and
marked down the value of loans to software companies in its portfolios,
according to reports.
-- Morgan Stanley's fund acknowledged the industry's wobbles over the past
year, pointing to a "contraction in asset yields, uncertainty surrounding
the recovery in M&A and speculation on credit deterioration."
What's Next: Many private market lenders are exposed to industries at the epicenter of the AI disruption trade, and some of them have been caught out by falling company values and illiquid loan portfolios. "Though these factors have affected sentiment for the asset class, we're optimistic that some of these pressures may soon ease," the Morgan Stanley investor letter said.
-- Nate Wolf and Alex Kozul-Wright
Global Art Sales Rebounded to $59.6 Billion in 2025
Global art market sales reached $59.6 billion last year as high-quality works drew people back to the market after two years of declines. Although the 4% gain is encouraging, the total is still nearly $9 billion below the 2022 peak, said the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report.
-- A separate report from Bank of America and ArtTactic released this week
said U.S. public auction sales rose 23.1%, propelled by major estate
collections and renewed demand for historical names. The U.S. captured a
record 69% of global auction sales last year.
-- Sales jumped 54.1% in the second half of 2025, after contracting 5.6% in
the first half, the BofA report said. The November surge was led by
Leonard Lauder's $527.5 million collection at Sotheby's, including Gustav
Klimt's Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer, which sold for an artist-record
$236.4 million.
-- Matthew Newton, head of UBS Art Advisory Americas, told Barron's that the
recent art market decline was more about "sellers being willing to sell
than buyers being willing to buy." Transaction volume increased 2% from
2024, driven by more sales of works priced below $50,000.
-- Globally, active bidding on art works drove the public auction market 9%
higher over 2024, driven by 30% growth in sales above $10 million. But
galleries and dealers only saw a 2% increase in sales, with much of that
uptick likely from more high-ticket sales, the Art Basel-UBS report said.
What's Next: The Bank of America-ArtTactic report said that artworks resold within five years resulted in an annualized loss of 5.7%, while those held five to 10 years maintained their purchase prices. Collectors, on average, have to hold a work for a decade or more to see positive returns.
-- Abby Schultz and Janet H. Cho
-- Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O'Donnell, Rupert Steiner
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 13, 2026 06:53 ET (10:53 GMT)
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