A Look At Allison Transmission (ALSN) Valuation After The Dana Off Highway Acquisition News

Simply Wall St.03-16

AdvertisementAllison Transmission Holdings: recent performance snapshot Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) has drawn attention after a recent pullback, with the stock showing a 4.2% decline over the...

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See our latest analysis for Allison Transmission Holdings. At a latest share price of US$112.82, Allison Transmission Holdings has cooled off in the past month but still sits on solid momentum, with a 14.3% 90 day share price return and very strong 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns. Recent moves hint at investors reassessing growth potential and risk, particularly after a strong run over several years. If you are comparing Allison with other industrial and infrastructure related names, it can be useful to scan the wider market for similar themes and potential opportunities via 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks With Allison posting double digit annual revenue and net income growth and trading at a reported 51% intrinsic discount and a 15% gap to analyst targets, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is future growth already priced in? Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued At a last close of US$112.82 against a narrative fair value of US$129.70, Allison Transmission Holdings is framed as undervalued, with that view resting on specific growth, margin and valuation assumptions rather than market sentiment alone.  The recently announced acquisition of Dana's Off-Highway business materially expands Allison's global footprint, diversifies its end markets to include agriculture and construction, and is expected to drive significant operational and cost synergies ($120 million annual run rate), supporting both revenue growth and margin enhancement over the next 4 years.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how this acquisition, projected revenue build and future earnings multiple all connect to that fair value gap? The key input mix might surprise you. Result: Fair Value of $129.70 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on key risks, including faster adoption of fully electric drivetrains and any stumble integrating Dana's Off Highway business, which could pressure margins. Find out about the key risks to this Allison Transmission Holdings narrative. Next Steps With the mixed picture of risks and rewards laid out, does the current mood around Allison match your own read of the facts? Act quickly, review the key drivers yourself, and weigh both sides of the story with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign Looking for more investment ideas? If Allison has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the screener to quickly surface fresh, high conviction ideas tailored to the way you like to invest.  Target quality at a discount by scanning 49 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with what may be appealing entry prices. Build a steadier core by checking out 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on resilience and business stability. Get ahead of the crowd by reviewing the screener containing 26 high quality undiscovered gems that most investors are not watching yet.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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