EMERGING MARKETS-Asian stocks waver on Mideast tensions; Indonesia tumbles to eight-month low

.

By Sameer Manekar

March 16 (Reuters) - Stocks in emerging Asia fluctuated on Monday as the Middle East war kept oil prices elevated and investors on edge, while Indonesian equities fell to an eight-month low after the president indicated a willingness to exceed the country's fiscal deficit limit.

A surge in oil prices since the start of the war has rippled through financial markets, triggered massive equity outflows, and complicated inflation outlook for most central banks, likely halting their easing cycles. TOP/CEN

Equities appeared stable during the day on hopes that a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz would ease supply pressures, but concerns over potential attacks and uncertainties around diplomatic efforts tempered risk sentiment.

"For Asian economies and FX and rates markets, it boils down to the Strait of Hormuz – and what it would take to credibly re-open it," MUFG senior currency analyst Lloyd Chan said.

"We are not entirely convinced that these steps the Trump administration are taking now, including getting allies to help, will meaningfully help on that front."

The MSCI emerging Asia index .MIMS00000PUS swung between gains and losses before last trading up 0.4%, driven by choppy moves in South Korea, which accounts for over a fifth of the regional index.

Stocks in Seoul .KS11 fluctuated throughout the session, falling as much as 0.7% before reversing to trade about 1% higher in afternoon trading.

Equities in Taiwan traded 0.2% higher around noon in Taipei, after earlier gains of up to 1%.

The two East Asian economies, which together account for just over half of the index, are particularly sensitive to oil price shocks due to their heavy reliance on energy imports.

Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index .JKSE fell as much as 3% in early trading to its weakest point since last July, while the rupiah IDR= made another run at its lifetime low but stopped short at 16,985 a dollar.

President Prabowo Subianto, in an interview with Bloomberg News on Sunday, said he would approve a short-term increase in the budget deficit beyond the legal limit of 3% if oil prices stayed elevated for a sustained period.

His comments come ahead of Bank Indonesia's policy meeting on Tuesday, where a majority of economists polled by Reuters expect interest rates to remain unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting.

Indonesian assets have been under pressure amid persistent fiscal concerns, diminishing investor confidence in equity markets, and unease over the central bank's autonomy since the appointment of the president's nephew as a deputy governor.

Indonesia's benchmark index has lost roughly 15% so far this month, and is set to mark its worst monthly performance in six years, if the trend continues. The decline has been driven not only by the Middle East conflict but also by Moody's and Fitch ratings downgrades, as well as the suspension of index reviews by MSCI and FTSE Russell.

OCBC equity strategy head, Low Pei Han, downgraded Indonesian stocks last week, citing similar factors. "While Indonesian equities are trading at 11.7x forward price-to-equity, which is undemanding, we believe that potential negatives are only partially priced in at current levels."

Elsewhere, stocks in Singapore .STI and Malaysia .KLSE wavered around their prior closing levels, while those in Thailand .SETI edged higher.

Equities in the Philippines .PSI slipped more than 1% to a five-session low, while its currency, the peso PHP=, briefly touched the key psychological level of 60 per dollar before recovering to around 59.84 a dollar, as elevated oil prices continue to weigh on the net oil-importing currency.

HIGHLIGHTS: ** Yield on Indonesia's 10-year benchmark index ID10YT=RR flat at 6.819%** Thai parliament to open amid scrutiny over election ballots** China's economy builds early momentum in 2026 as risks mount

(Reporting by Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

((Sameer.Manekar@thomsonreuters.com;))