MW Trump has 15 days to end the Iran war or markets face a brutal April repricing - from oil to the S&P 500
By Kenneth Rapoza
Wall Street bets on a March end to the Iran conflict - but Tehran is playing for a November U.S. regime change
If the Iran conflict doesn't end soon, Americans can expect much higher gas prices.
Investors are being told that oil is peaking and the Iran conflict will end. Iran has other plans.
President Donald Trump's Operation Epic Fury has 15 days left before assets reprice worldwide.
A "Venezuela II" incursion was Trump's base-case scenario for Iran. Topple leadership, mop up the mess and call it a victory. Obviously, Iran was never going to be a one-day trip. Still, the White House has repeatedly stated that the Iran operation will be over in four to six weeks, with six weeks likely a buffer - so when it ends by March 31 Trump can tout how he ended it early.
The financial markets still believe in this Venezuela II scenario. Goldman Sachs said on March 13 that Brent crude should hover around $100 this month but fall to $85 in April. Bank of America analysts said investors shouldn't chase energy and oil securities if oil surpasses $100. They are telling investors that oil is peaking because they think the war will end.
Iran has other plans.
"Tehran has every incentive to stretch this conflict and keep pressure on global energy flows," Naeem Aslam, CIO of Zaye Capital Markets in London tells me. "Markets might think this is over soon. Iran doesn't operate on Wall Street's calendar."
If you don't believe the Iran war is over in "four to six weeks," you're going long all things energy and commodities-related, even if it looks toppy. (As of March 10, the market was mostly short oil.)
Iran's leadership said recently they will decide when the war's over. That suggests Iran may be pursuing its own version of regime change - not in Tehran, but in America and other countries. Iran's path to "victory" is creating popular opposition in these countries that forces their enemies to end the attacks.
Let's pretend we are well-paid consultants offering Iran strategic advice. The core question is simple: What does unconditional surrender get you?
Let's pretend we are well-paid consultants offering Iran strategic advice. The core question is simple: What does unconditional surrender get you? Nothing, actually. It merely formalizes helplessness.
Moreover, Iran is well aware that some Middle East foreign-policy hawks want to break Iran as a relevant actor in the Persian Gulf and in global oil (CL00) (CL.1) markets. So their fight is over state survival, maybe less so regime survival.
The Strait of Hormuz is Iran's strongest lever. Iran will attempt to impose enough economic pain, market stress and political backlash to produce regime change - in Washington or Jerusalem.
"The 1973 oil embargo lasted six months; its effects reverberated through the rest of the decade and arguably helped grease the skids for (President Richard) Nixon's exit. It also destabilized political orders in both Washington and Jerusalem. Hormuz may do the same," Vladimir Signorelli, head of macro-investor Bretton Woods Research, wrote in a note to clients last week.
He added: "In Israel, that means turning [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu's campaign into a fiscal and political liability severe enough to crack his coalition in June. In the United States, it means driving oil higher, making monetary conditions worse and deepening Trump and the Republican Party's political vulnerability before the November midterms."
Read: Iran conflict hits a market that's more overvalued than during the 1973 oil shock
A Venezuela II scenario means the U.S. can live with Iran's new leadership, even if the new boss is the same as the old boss.
If Iran's base case prevails, Americans are in for a summer of $3.50 average gasoline prices and $9 a pound ground beef, let alone more death and destruction.
A Venezuela II scenario means the U.S. can live with Iran's new leadership, even if the new boss is the same as the old boss. Remember, despite former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro being captured, the Socialists United of Venezuela (PSUV) party is still in power - they are willing to cooperate with Washington.
Could the same happen in Iran? Trump says religious leadership in Iran is fine on one hand, but also seems to be hunting down the new supreme leader.
One thing we know: If this war goes beyond March, everything reprices and everyone reassesses. How will allies react? What will China do if the U.S. fails to meet its timeline on Iran, even as Trump tells the world the U.S. has destroyed Iran's ability to fight back? What happens to Trump's political standing and his political movement?
In that event, Goldman Sachs' worst-case scenario warns of oil prices exceeding the 2008 peak of about $148 a barrel if flows through the Strait Hormuz remain stuck into April. "The upside risks to our price forecast are that the disruption lasts longer," the report said.
Oil futures for August and September currently are above $80 a barrel. Pre-war, they were in the $60s. Trump's lower inflation hopes are cooked.
In 2001, fictional character Jack Bauer in the Fox series "24" was fighting against time. A large digital clock appeared at the start of each episode, with bright numerals showing the current time in 24-hour format, as Bauer raced against the clock to avert disaster. Today is March 16. Trump has 360 hours.
Kenneth Rapoza is an analyst for the Coalition for a Prosperous America, which represents U.S. producers and workers. He is a former journalist who has reported from Brazil and covered the BRIC economies.
More: Individual investors are chasing oil's surge amid Iran conflict; institutions are thinking about what comes next
Also read: It was unthinkable a couple of weeks ago, but could the next move by the Fed be a rate hike?
-Kenneth Rapoza
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March 16, 2026 07:55 ET (11:55 GMT)
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