Oil At $100: Is The 1970s Double Inflation Wave Repeating?

Benzinga_recent_news03-16 22:40

There is an analogy keeping economists and investors up at night. The 1970s didn’t have one inflation wave. It had two. The first peaked in 1974 and faded. Policymakers declared victory too soon. ...

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Policymakers declared victory too soon. \n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/03/51271748/oil-100-1970s-double-inflation-wave-repeating-2026\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil At $100: Is The 1970s Double Inflation Wave Repeating?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil At $100: Is The 1970s Double Inflation Wave Repeating?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-16 22:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/03/51271748/oil-100-1970s-double-inflation-wave-repeating-2026><strong>Benzinga_recent_news</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There is an analogy keeping economists and investors up at night.\nThe 1970s didn’t have one inflation wave. It had two. \nThe first peaked in 1974 and faded. Policymakers declared victory too soon. \n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/03/51271748/oil-100-1970s-double-inflation-wave-repeating-2026\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4581","symbol_name":"高盛持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/03/51271748/oil-100-1970s-double-inflation-wave-repeating-2026","article_id":"2619464415","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/03/16/U-S--inflation.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/03/51271748/oil-100-1970s-double-inflation-wave-repeating-2026","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2619464415","pubTimestamp":1773672000,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Oil above $100, a Strait of Hormuz disruption and Polymarket odds showing a 94% chance inflation tops 3% in 2026. The 1970s double wave playbook may be back.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","BK4588":"碎股","USO":"美国原油ETF","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion"},"translate_title":"油价100美元：20世纪70年代的双重通胀浪潮正在重演吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.6,"TMF":0.9,"SHV":0.9,"ZFmain":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"USO":0.9,"IEF":0.6,"BIL":0.9,"IEI":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"HYG":0.9,"DUG":0.81,"XOP":0.81,"SKRE":0.9,"BOXX":0.9,"ZBmain":0.6,"FAZ":0.9,"BND":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"UBmain":0.6},"content_text":"There is an analogy keeping economists and investors up at night.\nThe 1970s didn’t have one inflation wave. It had two. \nThe first peaked in 1974 and faded. Policymakers declared victory too soon. \nThen the Iranian Revolution of 1979 removed millions of barrels a day from world markets, oil prices doubled, and CPI surged to nearly 13%. \nIt took Paul Volcker, 20% interest rates, and a brutal recession to finally end it.\nFast forward fifty years. The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 drove the first inflationary surge of the 2020s, pushing CPI to 9.1% in June 2022 — the highest since 1981. \nThen came three years of aggressive Fed tightening, falling energy prices, and a hard-won disinflation that brought inflation back to 2.4% by January 2026. \nThe Fed had begun cutting rates. The fight, to all appearances, was won.\nWith oil prices now back to triple digits, the 2020s could be tracing the same shape — and the country triggering the second shock is Iran again.\nThe narrative of the 1970s as a single inflation event is misleading. It was two structurally distinct shocks, separated by a period of incomplete recovery that policymakers mistook for resolution.\nThe first shock arrived in October 1973. After the Yom Kippur War, Arab OPEC members cut oil exports to nations that had supported Israel. \nThe embargo was partly political theater — the actual supply reduction was more modest than the price reaction — but it was enough to trigger panic buying and a quadrupling of oil prices from roughly $3 to nearly $12 a barrel within months. U.S. CPI, already rising on the back of Vietnam War-era deficit spending and the collapse of the Bretton Woods dollar peg, peaked above 12% in late 1974.\nThe Federal Reserve, under Chairman Arthur Burns, interpreted the decline as a victory and pivoted to a looser monetary policy.\nThe underlying inflationary pressure — loose monetary conditions, unanchored expectations, structural energy dependence — was never fully cleared.\nThe second shock came from Iran. The Islamic Revolution of 1978–1979 collapsed Iranian production by roughly 4.8 million barrels per day. \nThe Iran-Iraq War, which began in September 1980, removed both countries’ output simultaneously. \nOil prices more than doubled in a year. Because inflation had never been extinguished, the second shock detonated inside an already-primed system. \nCPI surged to nearly 13% by 1980.\nEnding the second wave required Fed Chairman Paul Volcker — appointed by President Jimmy Carter in August 1979 with an explicit mandate to break inflation — and interest rates that touched 20%. Unemployment peaked above 10%. The recession of 1981–1982 was one of the deepest since World War II.\nThe parallels are precise enough to be uncomfortable. \nThe first inflationary surge of the 2020s was partly demand-driven — the result of an unprecedented pandemic-era monetary and fiscal expansion — and partly supply-driven, detonated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. \nOil prices surged above $100 a barrel within days. U.S. CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.\nWhat followed looked like a successful managed landing. \nThe Fed raised rates from near-zero to 5.25–5.50%. Energy prices fell as global demand softened and Russia redirected crude to non-Western buyers. \nBy January 2026, CPI had slowed to 2.4%. \nThe Fed had already cut rates by 175 basis points from the 2022 peak. Markets priced further easing and economists declared the inflation fight over.\nThen came February 28, 2026.\nGoldman Sachs, which had forecast inflation ending 2026 at 2% — right at the Fed’s target — warned clients that if oil price gains persist, CPI could climb to 3% by year-end. \nMorgan Stanley estimates that a 10% rise in oil prices from a supply shock adds roughly 0.35 percentage points to U.S. headline CPI within three months. \nMeanwhile, prediction markets are rapidly repricing inflation risks. Prior to the first U.S. strike on Iran, Polymarket contracts implied about a 30% chance that annual inflation in 2026 would exceed 3%. \nThat probability has now jumped to 94%.\nThe Fed now faces the same trap Burns fell into in 1979: an oil shock arriving before inflation expectations were fully re-anchored, a weakening labor market pulling in the opposite direction, and a leadership transition adding further uncertainty.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in two months. His likely successor, Kevin Warsh — President Donald Trump's nominee for the role — has advocated lower interest rates, a stance now on a collision course with an oil shock that economists warn could force the Fed to keep rates on hold, if not raise them.\nThe symmetry is almost too clean to be a coincidence\nThe only open question now is the one Volcker answered at the cost of a recession: how much pain does it take to end it the second time?\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2619464415","isCrawlerRequest":true}