MARKET SNAPSHOT
U.S. stocks continued to fall as oil continued to rise due to the war in Iran. Treasury yields ended the week higher as traders worried that the conflict in the Middle East will push up energy prices and perhaps trigger broader inflation. Gold and silver futures sank, while the dollar strengthened.
MARKET WRAPS
EQUITIES
Stocks slipped for a third straight week, with investors weighing the risk of a prolonged Middle East conflict on energy prices and economic stability.
All three major indexes logged a weekly decline of more than 1.2%. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%, or 119 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.9%.
Stocks initially rose in morning trading after the release of economic data that broadly matched economist expectations. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge cooled in January, although price pressures remained stubbornly above the central bank's target. However, the optimism was tempered by a Commerce Department report that revised fourth-quarter GDP growth sharply down to a 0.7% annual rate, just half of the 1.4% pace it reported in its "advance" GDP report last month.
Both economic reports predate the conflict with Iran, suggesting that growth was already slowing before the recent spike in oil prices added further strain. And by midday, stocks' early gains gave away to losses as investors grappled with the uncertainty of the conflict.
After nearly two weeks of intense American and Israeli airstrikes in Iran, investors are recalibrating for a potentially protracted crisis. The prospect of a longer-term standoff has replaced initial hopes of a swift resolution, leaving markets to grapple with an increasingly clouded outlook.
"The conflict in the Middle East is not going to be easily resolved," said Ryan Weldon, portfolio manager at IFM Investors. "Even if we get down to $70 or $80 a barrel through the first half of 2026, that impact is still going to continue to reverberate in the economy."
Earlier Friday, Asian shares ended mostly lower as risk-off sentiment persisted.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index slipped 0.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index closed 1% lower, weighed by sharp declines for mining groups.
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.2%, as shares in Honda Motor dropped 5.6% after the company said it expects about $15.7 billion in expenses and losses tied to a reassessment of its electric-vehicle strategy.
South Korea's Kospi declined 1.7%, weighed down by energy and semiconductor stocks as artificial-intelligence memory maker SK Hynix slipped nearly 2.2%.
Stocks in Australia and New Zealand slipped, as the S&P/ASX 200 and the S&P/NZX 50 fell 0.1%.
COMMODITIES
Oil futures settled higher and posted strong weekly gains as the conflict with Iran extended and the U.S. moved additional Marines and warships to the Middle East.
"Efforts taken to bring down prices have thus far failed, indicating a worsening situation in the war, particularly concerning the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital said. If the strait remains blocked, oil prices could rise above $125 next week "weighing on stocks and bonds while driving the dollar and yields higher," he added.
WTI settled up 3.1% at $98.71 a barrel for an 8.6% weekly gain. Brent rose 2.7% to $103.14, up 11% from a week ago.
Front month Comex gold for March delivery lost over 1.2% to settle at $5052.50 per troy ounce. Gold futures lost 1.8% on the week. Front month Comex silver for March delivery lost 4.4% to settle at $80.91 per troy ounce. Silver futures were down 3.5% on the week.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Economy Was Even Slower in Fourth Quarter, New Estimate Shows
The economy was even slower in the fourth quarter of last year than previously reported.
The Commerce Department on Friday said that gross domestic product grew at just an 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year, well short of the 1.4% pace it reported in its "advance" GDP report last month. Gross domestic product is the value of all goods and services produced across the economy.
The downward revision was driven by a variety of factors. Consumer spending and business investment were slower than initially reported. International trade, which had provided a slight boost in the advance report, instead weighed on the GDP calculation. Government spending, hurt by last fall's government shutdown, fell by more than previously reported.
Underlying Inflation Was Stubborn in January by Fed's Preferred Metric
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge remained stuck above the central bank's target in January, evidence of the stubborn price increases likely to lead the Fed to keep interest rates on hold next week.
Inflation measured by the personal-consumption expenditures price index was 2.8% in the first month of 2026, a slight decline from December, the Commerce Department said Friday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE inflation, often looked at as a gauge of underlying price trends, was 3.1%, up slightly from 3% in December.
Month over month, PCE inflation was 0.3% in January, with a 0.4% rise in core prices.
Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Central Bank Decisions in Focus After Jump in Energy Prices
Decisions by major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, will take center stage in the coming week as investors watch how policymakers react to the recent jump in oil and gas prices due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are among a list of central banks that are scheduled to make decisions on interest rates.
FedEx Overtakes UPS as the New King of Delivery
All hail the new king of packages.
For the first time in history, FedEx eclipsed United Parcel Service this week in market capitalization, a sign of how much Wall Street is rewarding the delivery giant that can shrink the fastest to boost profits.
FedEx shares have climbed nearly 40% in the past two years, while UPS shares have dropped by about the same amount. On Monday, FedEx was valued at $84.9 billion, about $44 million more than its rival, the first time that FedEx was worth more since UPS went public in 1999. UPS retook the top spot Tuesday, but FedEx was on top again by Friday's closing bell.
Amazon Announces Inference Chips Deal With Cerebras
Amazon Web Services plans to deploy processors designed by Cerebras inside its data centers, the latest vote of confidence in the startup, which specializes in chips that power artificial-intelligence models.
Under the multiyear partnership, which the companies announced Friday, AWS will use Cerebras's chip, called the Wafer-Scale Engine, to help power so-called inference functions, which allow AI models to respond to user queries.
The companies declined to disclose the financial terms of the agreement.
Expected Major Events for Monday
01:30/CHN: Feb House Price Index
02:00/CHN: Jan-Feb Retail sales
02:00/CHN: Jan-Feb Fixed Assets Investment
02:00/CHN: Jan-Feb Industrial Output
08:00/HK: Feb Hong Kong port container throughput monthly estimates
09:59/CHN: Feb FDI Foreign Direct Investment
09:59/PHI: Jan Overseas Filipino Workers Remittances figures
21:00/SKA: Feb Import price index
21:00/SKA: Feb Export price index
21:00/SKA: Feb Net barter terms of trade
21:45/NZ: Feb Selected Price Index
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 15, 2026 16:30 ET (20:30 GMT)
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