Iranian attacks damage Qatar LNG facilities, impacting global supply
US gas prices rise despite mild weather and low heating demand
US LNG exports at capacity, limiting response to global price spikes
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 3% to a one-week high on Thursday on soaring global energy prices after Iranian missiles hit a liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ facility in Qatar and other energy infrastructure across the Middle East as part of the Iran war .
QatarEnergy's CEO said Iran's attacks damaged facilities that produce 17% of the company’s LNG export capacity and that it will take three to five years to repair them.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.1 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $3.166 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since March 12.
That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected, and an unusual mid-March weekly storage injection last week when the weather was mild and heating demand low.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 35 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended March 13.
That was slightly bigger than the 31-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with declines of one bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average decrease of 29 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain warmer than normal through April 3, keeping heating demand low during that time.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.6 bcfd this week to 112.2 bcfd next week.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slid to 18.4 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas. The past price spikes were due primarily to supply disruptions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In recent weeks, gas prices around the world have surged again following repeated Iranian attacks on LNG export facilities in Qatar and elsewhere in the Middle East, which have removed about 20% of LNG supplies from the global market.
Prices in the U.S. have not reacted to the Iran war by nearly as much as prices elsewhere. The U.S. produces all the gas it needs domestically and U.S. LNG companies were already operating at maximum capacity. As a result, no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more LNG.
Since the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, U.S. gas prices have jumped about 12% versus around 91% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 88% in Asia JKMc1.
Around the world, gas was trading at 37-month highs near $21 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and near $20 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Mar 13 Actual | Week ended Mar 6 Actual | Year ago Mar 13 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 13 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +35 | -38 | -1 | -29 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,883 | 1,848 | 1,706 | 1,836 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +2.6% | -0.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.17 | 3.07 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 21.20 | 18.29 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 20.18 | 19.41 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 202 | 221 | 204 | 254 | 248 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 42 | 36 | 20 | 17 | 14 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 244 | 257 | 224 | 271 | 262 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.0 | 109.5 | 109.3 | 106.4 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.4 | 7.6 | 8.0 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.4 | 117.1 | 117.3 | N/A | 108.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.8 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 13.9 | 19.5 | 13.4 | 16.3 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 28.5 | 29.8 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 24.7 | 23.3 | 23.9 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 83.3 | 95.0 | 83.4 | 86.8 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 112.8 | 123.6 | 112.2 | N/A | 118.7 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 100 | 101 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 100 | 101 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 105 | 105 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Mar 20 | Week ended Mar 13 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 17 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
34 | 34 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 14 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.12 | 3.14 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.54 | 2.87 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.62 | 1.58 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.43 | 2.60 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.72 | 2.83 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.15 | 4.50 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.26 | 2.23 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -3.67 | -3.43 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 50.59 | 67.20 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 62.87 | 100.31 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia W-MIDCP-IDX | 8.98 | 18.28 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 34.07 | 38.59 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 21.45 | 21.21 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nia Williams, Bill Berkrot and David Gregorio)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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