Does Ares (ARES) Dividend-Driven Rebound Clarify Or Complicate The Market’s View Of Private Credit?

Simply Wall St.03-17 22:22

In recent days, Ares Management’s shares recovered after earlier private-credit-driven selling, as investors moved to qualify for upcoming dividend payments and reacted to sector sentiment shifts. ...

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Beyond the short-term trading, management’s emphasis on healthy portfolio metrics, including zero percent non-accruals in its large non-traded BDC, offers a contrasting picture to market concerns about private credit risk. We’ll now examine how this rebound, shaped by dividend timing and private credit worries, may influence Ares Management’s broader investment narrative. Rare earth metals are an input to most high-tech devices, military and defence systems and electric vehicles. The global race is on to secure supply of these critical minerals. Beat the pack to uncover the 29 best rare earth metal stocks of the very few that mine this essential strategic resource.AdvertisementAres Management Investment Narrative RecapTo own Ares Management today, you need to believe in the long term growth of fee based alternative assets, particularly private credit, despite recent volatility. The latest rebound, driven by dividend timing and a bounce in private credit names after sectorwide fears, does not materially change the key near term catalyst of fundraising and deployment of dry powder, nor the biggest current risk around private credit sentiment, potential redemptions, and pressure on fee economics. The most relevant recent update is CEO Michael Arougheti’s March 11 conference remarks highlighting what he described as “strong” portfolio fundamentals, including zero percent non accruals in a 900 borrower non traded BDC. In the context of JPMorgan’s loan markdowns and tighter lending to private credit, this portfolio data point sits directly against prevailing risk concerns and will matter for how investors weigh the durability of Ares’ fee base and its ability to support its higher dividend. Yet behind the rebound, an important risk investors should be aware of is that private credit sentiment and short interest have shifted sharply, while... Read the full narrative on Ares Management (it's free!)Ares Management's narrative projects $7.1 billion revenue and $2.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 13.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.8 billion earnings increase from $369.5 million today.Uncover how Ares Management's forecasts yield a $170.59 fair value, a 70% upside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesARES 1-Year Stock Price Chart While consensus focused on long term AUM growth and fee visibility, the most bearish analysts already flagged rising costs and slower deployment, even as they forecast earnings of about US$2.0 billion by 2028, reminding you that informed views on Ares can differ widely and may shift again after this private credit scare.Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Ares Management - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!Reach Your Own ConclusionDon't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.A great starting point for your Ares Management research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Ares Management research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ares Management's overall financial health at a glance.Looking For Alternative Opportunities?The market won't wait. These fast-moving stocks are hot now. Grab the list before they run:Uncover the next big thing with 33 elite penny stocks that balance risk and reward.AI is about to change healthcare. These 33 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.The future of work is here. Discover the 30 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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