Bank of England ‘should wait’ before cutting interest rates, City AM Shadow MPC says

cityam03-17 18:45

The Bank of England has been urged to leave interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England should “wait and see” how long the war in Iran goes on for before cutting interest rates again, leading ...

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The Bank of England should “wait and see” how long the war in Iran goes on for before cutting interest rates again, leading ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/bank-of-england-should-wait-before-cutting-interest-rates-city-am-shadow-mpc-says/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cityam_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of England ‘should wait’ before cutting interest rates, City AM Shadow MPC says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of England ‘should wait’ before cutting interest rates, City AM Shadow MPC says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-17 18:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cityam.com/bank-of-england-should-wait-before-cutting-interest-rates-city-am-shadow-mpc-says/><strong>cityam</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Bank of England has been urged to leave interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England should “wait and see” how long the war in Iran goes on for before cutting interest rates again, leading ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/bank-of-england-should-wait-before-cutting-interest-rates-city-am-shadow-mpc-says/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"CHCO","symbol_name":"City Holding Company","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.cityam.com/bank-of-england-should-wait-before-cutting-interest-rates-city-am-shadow-mpc-says/","article_id":"2620426369","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/bailey-boe-copy-1.jpg?w=824&h=463&crop=1"],"rights":{"source":"cityam_highlight","url":"https://www.cityam.com/bank-of-england-should-wait-before-cutting-interest-rates-city-am-shadow-mpc-says/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620426369","pubTimestamp":1773744329,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"cityam_highlight","name":"cityam"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The Bank of England has been urged to leave interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England should “wait and see” how long the war in Iran goes on for before cutting interest rates again, leading economists on City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee have said.The crisis in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices and heightened fears that the UK economy is heading for a period of high inflation and low growth, with some analysts warning the prospect of a recession cannot be ruled out.Top economists from academia and City giants have said the Bank of England should hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent in the risk that the Iran war persists and leads to spiralling price rises over the coming year.Members of City AM’s Shadow MPC voted 7-2 in favour of leaving interest rates unchanged. Economists, who responded independently from their respective organisations, suggested that an interest rate cut would have been more likely if the war in Iran had not broken out.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CHCO":"City Holding Company","LU0788109394.HKD":"BGF WORLD ENERGY \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0300736492.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0122376428.USD":"贝莱德世界能源基金A2","IE00BMQBXF63.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC A","BK4144":"石油与天然气的储存和运输","IE00BZ18W340.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCOME \"B\" (USD) ACC","MPC":"马拉松原油","LU0368265418.SGD":"Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","LU0266512473.USD":"JPM GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ18W456.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","AM":"Antero Midstream Corporation","BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4588":"碎股","BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销"},"translate_title":"金融城影子货币政策委员会表示，英格兰银行在降息前“应该等待”","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CHCO":1.5,"MPC":1.5,"AM":1.5},"content_text":"The Bank of England has been urged to leave interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England should “wait and see” how long the war in Iran goes on for before cutting interest rates again, leading economists on City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee have said. The crisis in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices and heightened fears that the UK economy is heading for a period of high inflation and low growth, with some analysts warning the prospect of a recession cannot be ruled out. Top economists from academia and City giants have said the Bank of England should hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent in the risk that the Iran war persists and leads to spiralling price rises over the coming year. Members of City AM’s Shadow MPC voted 7-2 in favour of leaving interest rates unchanged. Economists, who responded independently from their respective organisations, suggested that an interest rate cut would have been more likely if the war in Iran had not broken out. \n\n\nA decision to keep monetary policy restrictive may be a reluctant one given rising unemployment and predictions that price growth could ease to two per cent next month. \n\n\n\n\n\n\nNews Updates\nStay ahead with our three daily briefings delivering all the key market moves, top business and political stories, and incisive analysis straight to your inbox.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSome members including Julian Jessop suggested that the Bank should leave the option of cutting borrowing costs open in upcoming meetings. Jessop said: “It is still right to look past the temporary impact of commodity price shocks, especially if these will also dampen economic activity. Nonetheless, it will take time to gauge all the second round effects, including on inflation expectations.”Katharine Neiss, chief European economist at PGIM Fixed Income, said she would have backed an interest rate cut had there not been a war in the Middle East, though she added that delaying a cut carried its own economic risks and was “not a free lunch”.\n\nCrunch decision on interest ratesRecent data by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has pointed to rising unemployment, near stagnation in the UK economy and falling inflation. Forecasters have suggested that bleaker economic data may come in the second half of the year given the energy price cap will only be reset in July.Sir Keir Starmer’s government has held off announcing a multi-billion pound energy support package despite the Brent Crude Oil price, an international benchmark, remaining above $100 per barrel. \nThe government has instead intervened to support households that use heating oil. Rachel Reeves has indicated that there was “scope” for the government to offer a larger package. \n\nA delay in interest rate cuts, however, could leave public finances in a more perilous position. The Chancellor’s headroom inched up by nearly £2bn at the Spring Statement in part due to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s more optimistic forecasts on government borrowing costs over the next five years. Anna Leach – Institute of Directors, chief economistVote: HoldWhat has influenced your decision?\n\n“The inflationary outlook has become highly uncertain. The outbreak of conflict in Iran has stoked oil and gas price volatility, driving oil prices above $100 a barrel and gas prices to more than double their pre-conflict levels. “Inflation expectations among households and businesses remain elevated at three to four per cent and domestic inflationary pressures were already not coming down as quickly as the Bank had hoped. “The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the International Energy Agency has described the disruption to oil markets as ‘unprecedented’. “In light of this new shock, it makes sense for the Bank to take a moment to see how the conflict evolves. But inflation is much lower than it was ahead of the Ukraine conflict. This creates more wriggle room for the Bank when it comes to balancing growth and inflation objectives.”Ben Ramanauskas – Senior research fellow in economics at Policy ExchangeVote: Cut by 25 basis pointsWhat has influenced your decision?“The situation in the Middle East will likely cause a slight uptick in headline inflation followed, potentially, by a modest increase in core inflation. However, this is likely to be transitory and so the Bank should look through the impact of this supply side shock.“High unemployment, low consumer and investor confidence, and weak growth were already set to persist and will likely be exacerbated by the energy shock. As such, we should expect inflation to continue to fall, return to target, and potentially undershoot.“Monetary policy remains restrictive. The MPC should continue to cut Bank Rate with the aim of arriving at a neutral rate of around three per cent by the end of the year.”Jack Meaning – Barclays chief UK economistVote: Cut by 25 basis pointsWhat has influenced your decision?“The flow of UK data has continued to be weak: the economy is stagnant and unemployment is rising. This raises a risk that interest rates need to be cut to stabilise the economy as demand softens. Weighed against this is the evolving energy price shock. “If current oil and gas price levels were to persist then this would keep inflation above the two per cent target for the next 12 months, and may risk raising inflation expectations. That said, this is not 2022 and I think the risk of rising expectations leading to persistent inflation becoming embedded is reduced given the current economic weakness. “This increases the likelihood that the boost to inflation is temporary. With two significant risks on either side, for me, the correct position, in my view, is one of balance. I therefore think Bank Rate should be neutral and remain there until there is evidence that it needs to lean one way or the other. “A 25 basis point cut, to 3.5 per cent, would take us to the top of my estimated range of a neutral interest rate.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2620426369","isCrawlerRequest":true}