MW 5 reasons Amazon's stock could be a major AI winner
By Hannah Pedone
A Needham analyst thinks AI agents will help Amazon's business, not hurt it
Needham analyst Laura Martin believes AI agents will drive Amazon's revenue higher.
Some Amazon.com bears think that artificial-intelligence agents will cause the e-commerce company to lose business, but a Needham analyst is taking the opposite view.
The fear on Wall Street is that shoppers will be able to query AI services with requests such as "find and buy the best running shoes under $150," Needham analyst Laura Martin wrote in a Tuesday note. In that world, consumers would be able to quickly find targeted items from across the web.
But Amazon (AMZN) isn't sitting still when it comes to agentic AI. The company owns the "largest product catalog, fulfillment network, pricing data, reviews, consumer purchase information and merchant relationships," Martin said. She thinks Amazon can leverage AI to boost revenue, improve profitability and defend its terrain.
One big thing working in Amazon's favor is the company's cloud-computing business, according to Martin. She said that AI companies with large language models will pay a premium to Amazon Web Services to access its one-of-a-kind consumer data.
Martin thinks that AWS, with its ability to generate revenue from third parties, will diversify the company's revenue base enough to offset massive investments in AI, a selling point that Meta $(META)$ and OpenAI lack.
She also said that Amazon's ability to access purchase history and other customer information will give it an advantage in developing its own AI shopping agent, Rufus.
Martin noted that the company's generative-AI products are driving faster revenue growth, especially given Rufus's ability to increase average basket size and customer retention.
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The fact that Amazon owns proprietary chips is another reason Martin believes the company has a unique cost advantage in the AI era. She noted that Amazon management said in its earnings call last February that its Trainium 2 chips are already sold out, while its Trainium 3 chips are expected to sell out by the third quarter of 2026.
While some investors have worried about Amazon's enormous AI spending - the company's $200 billion projection for 2026 is the highest within the group of megacap tech companies known as the "Magnificent Seven" - Martin thinks that the spending will increase Amazon's moat, since few can afford to keep pace with that level of investment.
On the earnings call, CEO Andy Jassy said that he anticipates long-term returns from the $200 billion in capital expenditures due to strong demand for the company's existing offerings in addition to new opportunities around AI, chips, robotics and low-earth-orbit satellites.
See also: Amazon's stock sinks due to massive spending plans. What Wall Street has to say.
Martin added that she expects the company's operating margins to continue expanding, as the company is slowing the growth of its head count and recognizing productivity gains from algorithms and robotics.
-Hannah Pedone
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March 17, 2026 10:50 ET (14:50 GMT)
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