MW Why Nvidia's stock is shrugging off a $1 trillion revenue forecast
By Britney Nguyen
There are questions about how much upside is really implied by Nvidia's new outlook. In the meantime, investors may be looking for clearer growth opportunities elsewhere.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the company's annual GTC on Monday that it has visibility into $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue through 2027.
Nvidia's massive revenue forecasts aren't packing much punch these days.
Last fall, CEO Jensen Huang said at the company's Washington, D.C. iteration of GTC that it had visibility into more than $500 billion in revenue from the Blackwell and upcoming Rubin platforms through the end of 2026. That outlook powered Nvidia (NVDA) to a $5 trillion market capitalization.
Now, Nvidia is worth less than $4.5 trillion, and Huang's new disclosure of at least $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue visibility through 2027 isn't helping the stock. Nvidia shares have been little changed since Huang made his remarks at the flagship GTC keynote on Monday afternoon.
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The implication that Nvidia will see at least $500 billion in revenue next year from these offerings is "impressive in absolute terms," Seaport Research analyst Jay Goldberg said, but cautioned that, when looking at the Wall Street consensus, there's "not much upside."
Admittedly, comparing the forecast to consensus expectations isn't so clear-cut. The FactSet consensus calls for $443 billion in data-center revenue in calendar 2027, but not all of that may correspond to Blackwell and Rubin, in which case Nvidia's outlook would be better than it looks.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said that with the $1 trillion forecast only counting Blackwell and Rubin, overall data-center revenue will top that figure. Plus, Nvidia's guidance "is a current snapshot only," he said in a Tuesday note. With seven quarters to go until the end of 2027, revenue trends could get even better - something Huang also anticipated during his keynote.
But another issue may be that "Nvidia has now gotten so big that it is bumping up against the law of large numbers," Goldberg said in a Monday note.
Goldberg, who is the lone Nvidia bear on Wall Street, noted that the chip maker commands more than 80% of the market for AI chips - a market that "is still growing massively." However, with that scale, "the path forward looks harder." Competitors are making moves, he noted, pointing to recent chip deals involving Nvidia rivals Broadcom $(AVGO)$ and Advanced Micro Devices $(AMD)$ with hyperscaler customers.
"Nvidia is now having to fight harder for revenue than it has for years," Goldberg said.
Nvidia's stock was down fractionally midday Tuesday.
See more: Meta further diversifies beyond Nvidia as it unveils four custom AI chips
TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter shared similar thoughts, noting that the company's market capitalization has grown to the point that Nvidia trades differently than other stocks.
"The reality is there are trading and fund-flow dynamics at play with a >$4T company that we, and investors, are not used to," he said in a Monday note.
Investors are looking for chip plays that have the potential to double, Buchalter said, and in Nvidia's case, that would require the company's market capitalization to hit $9 trillion, which is roughly equal to the combined GDPs of Germany and India.
"Several times we've heard feedback from investors that they see more torque and potential upside in the supply chain from those tied to Nvidia than Nvidia itself as a result," Buchalter said.
And while investors in semiconductor and tech stocks are already familiar with how supply-and-demand imbalances should benefit Nvidia, generalist investors need "more convincing" on Nvidia's position and the sustainability of AI spending, he said.
Eventually, spending will slow down, Buchalter said, but for now, the view into 2027 is clear, and the AI build-out looks "much more structural than cyclical."
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He added that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TW:2330) role as the supplier of a majority of AI chips "naturally protects the industry from itself," since the chip manufacturer, which is "historically conservative," has good visibility into demand and therefore would be able to control issues of double or over-ordering by Nvidia or its other customers.
-Britney Nguyen
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March 17, 2026 12:02 ET (16:02 GMT)
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