S&P 500 Warning Signal Flashes: The Same Pattern Preceded Every Major Selloff Is Back

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A recurring technical pattern could spell trouble ahead for the broader stock market. Whenever financial stocks broke below their 200-day moving average, the negative momentum eventually spilled over...

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It just happened again.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"VOOG":"Vanguard标普500成长ETF","XLF":"金融ETF","VYM":"红利股ETF-Vanguard","IVOO":"Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","SPMO":"Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BMAY":"Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - May","XDTE":"Roundhill S&P 500 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","RSP":"平均加权指数ETF-Rydex S&P","XYLD":"Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PEGI":"Pattern Energy Group Inc.","SPYV":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF","VUG":"成长股指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","JEPI":"JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SCHG":"Schwab U.S. Large -Cap Growth ET","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","IVW":"标普500成长股指数ETF-iShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPYG":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","SPLV":"Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF","GPIX":"GOLDMAN SACHS S&P 500 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VTV":"Vanguard Value ETF"},"translate_title":"标普500警告信号闪烁：每次重大抛售之前的相同模式又回来了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MESmain":0.6,".SPX":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"GPIX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"RSP":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"XDTE":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"VOO":1.5,"UPRO":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"VOOG":1.5,"VYM":1.5,"BMAY":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"IVOO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"JEPI":0.6,"IVW":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPYG":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"XYLD":0.6,"VUG":1.5,"SPYM":0.6,"SPMO":0.6,"PEGI":1.5,"SH":0.6,"XLF":0.9,"VTV":0.6,"SPYV":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"SPLV":0.6,"VTI":0.6,"SPY":1.5,"SCHG":1.5,"OEX":0.6},"content_text":"A recurring technical pattern could spell trouble ahead for the broader stock market. \nWhenever financial stocks broke below their 200-day moving average, the negative momentum eventually spilled over to the S&P 500 — and the historical data shows the damage typically deepens the further out you look.\nThe Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) — which tracks the performance of banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions — crossed below its 200-day moving average on Feb. 12, 2026.\nOver the past decade, these technical breakdowns have frequently coincided with bearish momentum in the broader S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY). \nIn simple terms, when the financial sector comes under pressure, it often pulls the wider market lower with it.\nAccording to John Roque, a technical analyst at 22V Research, since 2018, every time the MACD — a momentum indicator measuring whether a trend is accelerating or decelerating — deteriorated simultaneously in both the S&P 500 and the financial sector, a significant market decline has followed. \n“Since 2018, it’s always been right to be cautious when momentum for the S&P and financials is weakening simultaneously. It’s happening again now,” Roque said in a recent note to clients.\nWhat makes the current episode stand out is the sequence. The easy explanation is that oil caused the financial sector selloff: Iran war, Strait of Hormuz disruption, $100 oil, inflation fears, financials down. \nBut Roque notes that XLF broke below its 200-day moving average before the first U.S. strike on Iran on Feb. 28.\nFor the first time in over 30 years, the financial sector entered a correction exceeding 10% from peak before the broad market had even pulled back 5%.\nThe XLF breakdown is the visible signal. Underneath it, a less visible stress is building in the $2 trillion private credit market — pools of money that lend directly to businesses outside the public bond markets. \nThese funds boomed in recent years by offering higher yields, but they have a structural weakness: investors can only exit quarterly, and only up to a fixed percentage. \nWhen large numbers of investors want out at the same time, managers have no choice but to limit withdrawals.\nThat is happening now across some of the largest names in the industry.\nThe stress in the underlying funds is showing up in the stock prices of the firms that manage them. \nThe major alternative asset managers — the publicly traded companies that run private credit, private equity, and real estate funds — have been among the worst performers in the financial sector this year.\nThe market may be pricing in something more than a temporary market correction in financials — it is pricing deteriorating prospects for the private capital model at exactly the moment when redemption gates are going up across the industry.\nPhoto: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2620495875","isCrawlerRequest":true}