Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down On Tuesday? Oil Pullback In Focus As Fed Rate Decision Looms

Benzinga15:34

The S&P 500 rose 1.01% on Monday to close at 6,699.38, snapping a four-day losing streak as oil prices pulled back after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and a Wall Street Journal report said a coalition to escort ships through the strait was imminent. By early Tuesday, futures had turned red.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bearish heading into Tuesday, with the “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on March 17?” market at 24% “Up” and 76% “Down” in early trading.

Why That Number Matters

Monday’s rally was qualified from the start. President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters midday, signaled the tanker escort coalition isn’t finalized yet and encouraged other countries to get involved. Oil came off its session lows on his comments, but stayed down — WTI settled at $93.50, off more than 5%, while Brent closed just above $100.

WTI crude futures were at $97.64 per barrel on Tuesday, up 4.4% at 3 AM ET.

The bigger question arrives on Wednesday. The Fed delivers its second rate decision of the year, and expectations for cuts have dimmed sharply since the Iran war began, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Inflation risks are back.

The Bull Countercase

All 11 sectors on the benchmark index closed higher on Monday, and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) provided the clearest signal, rising roughly 1.7% after CEO Jensen Huang said during the GTC conference that he expects $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2027.

The S&P 500 remains just over 4% below its all-time high despite weeks of war-driven pressure. David Krakauer of Mercer Advisors told CNBC the market still believes Trump can end this if he wants to, after the U.S. leader told NBC over the weekend that Iran wants to make a deal, but he is not ready yet.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU), DocuSign Inc. (NASDAQ:DOCU), and Oklo Inc. (NYSE:OKLO) report earnings Tuesday after the markets close.

At 3 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were at 6,720.50, down about 34.75 points, or 0.52%.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 6,674.37, up from Friday’s close of 6,623.92 as oil retreated. “Up” resolved correctly on $194,135 in traded volume.

Image via Shutterstock

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By early Tuesday, futures had turned red.</p>\n<p>The <strong>Polygon</strong>-based (CRYPTO: POL) <strong>Polymarket</strong> crowd is bearish heading into Tuesday, with the “S&amp;P 500 Opens Up or Down on March 17?” market at 24% “Up” and 76% “Down” in early trading. </p>\n<h2><strong>Why That Number Matters</strong></h2>\n<p>Monday’s rally was qualified from the start. President <strong>Donald Trump</strong>, speaking to reporters midday, signaled the tanker escort coalition isn’t finalized yet and encouraged other countries to get involved. Oil came off its session lows on his comments, but stayed down — WTI settled at $93.50, off more than 5%, while Brent closed just above $100. </p>\n<p>WTI crude futures were at $97.64 per barrel on Tuesday, up 4.4% at 3 AM ET.</p>\n<p>The bigger question arrives on Wednesday. The Fed delivers its second rate decision of the year, and expectations for cuts have dimmed sharply since the Iran war began, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Inflation risks are back. </p>\n<h2><strong>The Bull Countercase</strong></h2>\n<p>All 11 sectors on the benchmark index closed higher on Monday, and <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a></strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) provided the clearest signal, rising roughly 1.7% after CEO <strong>Jensen Huang</strong> said during the GTC conference that he expects $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2027.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 remains just over 4% below its all-time high despite weeks of war-driven pressure. <strong>David Krakauer</strong> of <strong>Mercer Advisors</strong> told CNBC the market still believes Trump can end this if he wants to, after the U.S. leader told NBC over the weekend that Iran wants to make a deal, but he is not ready yet.</p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon</a> Athletica</strong> <strong>Inc</strong>. 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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and a Wall Street Journal report said a coalition to escort ships through the strait was imminent. By early Tuesday, futures had turned red.\nThe Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bearish heading into Tuesday, with the “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on March 17?” market at 24% “Up” and 76% “Down” in early trading. \nWhy That Number Matters\nMonday’s rally was qualified from the start. President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters midday, signaled the tanker escort coalition isn’t finalized yet and encouraged other countries to get involved. Oil came off its session lows on his comments, but stayed down — WTI settled at $93.50, off more than 5%, while Brent closed just above $100. \nWTI crude futures were at $97.64 per barrel on Tuesday, up 4.4% at 3 AM ET.\nThe bigger question arrives on Wednesday. The Fed delivers its second rate decision of the year, and expectations for cuts have dimmed sharply since the Iran war began, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Inflation risks are back. \nThe Bull Countercase\nAll 11 sectors on the benchmark index closed higher on Monday, and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) provided the clearest signal, rising roughly 1.7% after CEO Jensen Huang said during the GTC conference that he expects $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2027.\nThe S&P 500 remains just over 4% below its all-time high despite weeks of war-driven pressure. David Krakauer of Mercer Advisors told CNBC the market still believes Trump can end this if he wants to, after the U.S. leader told NBC over the weekend that Iran wants to make a deal, but he is not ready yet.\nLululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU), DocuSign Inc. (NASDAQ:DOCU), and Oklo Inc. (NYSE:OKLO) report earnings Tuesday after the markets close.\nAt 3 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were at 6,720.50, down about 34.75 points, or 0.52%.\nHow The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 6,674.37, up from Friday’s close of 6,623.92 as oil retreated. “Up” resolved correctly on $194,135 in traded volume. \nImage via Shutterstock","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"express","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2620497074","isCrawlerRequest":true}