The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1010 ET - Incoming changes to European emissions regulations will cause a permanent constraint for energy-intensive European companies, Jefferies analysts say. Executives across Europe don't expect the Emissions Trading Scheme to be repealed despite political pressure from some EU member states, they write. One anticipated change is a reduction in free allowances for carbon usage. In response, companies are buying up carbon allowances and preparing for higher carbon prices. Companies like steelmaker Outokumpu and cement producer Holcim will benefit given their carbon reduction efforts. However, airlines--including Air France-KLM--will suffer as they lose free carbon allowances and pay more for emissions than non-European peers, the analysts say. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0931 ET - European chemicals companies will benefit from a disruption to the supply of nitrogen caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Jefferies analysts write. A critical share of nitrogen can't be exported at a time the commodity is especially needed for fertilizers, the analysts say. The shock isn't properly reflected in chemical companies' valuations, they add. The dynamic benefits Yara--a producer of nitrogen-containing ammonia--as the nitrogen shortage allows it to expand margins. Moves in potash--a substitute to nitrogen-based fertilizers--are less significant, though K+S earnings will still see a boost, the analysts say. Shares in Yara have risen 13% over the past five trading days, while KS has gained 16% over the same period. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0434 ET - BHP's new CEO Brandon Craig should have a smooth start given his 25 years of experience at the miner, Hargreaves Lansdown's Derren Nathan writes. He will also have a tailwind from a rebound in iron ore prices and a strong copper outlook, he adds. Elevated oil prices for a prolonged period could hit industrial demand for metals, he says. Despite this, the Melbourne-based group's strong balance sheet and cash generation should keep its plans on track even if there is some economic downturn, Nathan adds. Shares in Australia closed 0.7% higher at A$50.09.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0316 ET - The U.S. dollar stabilizes as oil prices and Treasury yields retreat, with markets in general showing a quieter picture ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The dollar's strength, gained amid the Middle East crisis due to high oil prices and risk aversion, might fade, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. "We would be looking to fade the U.S. dollar strength and still have a view of medium-term U.S. dollar weakness," the global economist says. The expectation of a weaker dollar is best expressed versus gold, commodity currencies and versus Asian currencies, he says. The DXY dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, is flat at 99.533. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0144 ET - BHP's appointment of Brandon Craig as CEO highlights the depth of the miner's internal bench and suggests continuity in its strategic direction, says Daniel Seeney, founder of FiveRock Asset Management. Craig has played a central role in broadening BHP's growth beyond iron ore, particularly in copper and potash, Seeney says. "So the timing of this transition looks sensible as Jansen moves closer to first production," he says. BHP's Jansen potash project is scheduled to move into production in 2027. BHP shares end 0.7% higher in Sydney at A$50.09. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0106 ET - Brandon Craig's skills appear well matched to BHP's plans for future growth, particularly in copper, Global X senior investment strategist Marc Jocum says following Craig's promotion to CEO at BHP. "The appointment of Brandon Craig at BHP is effectively like putting the chief engineer of the 'copper engine' in the driver's seat," he says. Jocum says Global X is structurally bullish on materials, with copper its highest conviction exposure. Global X invests in BHP via its exchange-traded funds. "Copper is becoming the electricity of the modern economy critical to AI, electrification and energy transition, while supply remains structurally constrained," says Jocum. "Against that backdrop, BHP offers leveraged exposure to a tightening market just as leadership shifts toward execution." BHP shares are up 0.9% at A$50.18. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2204 ET - Press Metal Aluminium's outlook seems robust as ongoing geopolitical tensions keep aluminum prices elevated, RHB IB analyst Iftaar Hakim Rusli says in a note. Supply disruptions in the Gulf states, where 8%-9% of global output passes through the Strait of Hormuz, have tightened availability, driving spot aluminum prices up about 10% in two weeks, he notes. While this supports margins and premiums, a prolonged conflict could weigh on demand due to rising energy costs and cap further gains, he says. RHB maintains a buy rating on Press Metal and keeps the target price at 8.50 ringgit. Shares are 0.8% higher at 7.66 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2153 ET - Aluminum prices fall in early Asian trading, with the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange last down 0.6% at $3,379.00 a metric ton. As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, supply risks to Middle Eastern aluminum smelters remain a key concern, while difficulties in importing raw materials are becoming more pronounced, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a note. Iran had implemented production cuts earlier but smelters haven't shut down electrolytic cells and some production recovery signs have emerged, they say. However, the UAE warrants close attention as a lack of alternative shipping routes could force it to undergo production cuts, they add. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
2012 ET - Brandon Craig's appointment as BHP's next CEO appears to be closely aligned with the giant miner's current corporate direction, says Angus Gluskie, managing director at Whitefield, a BHP shareholder. "This suggests BHP is comfortable with the path charted by Mike Henry and is looking for a successor who can continue to implement on that vision," he says. BHP shares are up 0.5% at A$49.99. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
1956 ET - The appointment of Brandon Craig as BHP's next CEO suggests a continued focus by the miner on large, low-cost tier-one assets, and growth in copper and potash, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. Capital discipline will likely also remain a focus, he says. Current CEO Mike Henry oversaw a simplifying of BHP's portfolio and strengthening of its copper exposure, while delivering strong shareholder returns and a robust operating performance, Peker says. "Craig's appointment suggests the company is likely to build on this strategic direction rather than pursue a material shift in portfolio strategy," he says. RBC has a sector perform rating and A$57.00 target on BHP. The stock is up 0.2% at A$49.83. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
1929 ET - Coal prices have jumped on the Iran conflict as natural-gas users switch fuels due to a drop in supply. But will coal stay strong when hostilities end? Morgans notes the benchmark price of thermal coal exported from the Australian port of Newcastle was US$118/ton before Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran. It has since risen to US$138/ton. "During the prior 12-day war in June 2025, crude prices recovered to pre-conflict levels as soon as hostilities ended," analyst Chris Creech says. "A similar snap-back in coal is expected if Hormuz reopens in the short-term and Qatar restores LNG production." Morgans assumes a coal price of US$115/ton through 2H of FY 2026. Its long-term assumption is US$120/ton from FY 2027. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1920 ET - New Hope is benefiting from the run up in coal prices that has followed the Iran conflict, but Macquarie cautions investors to stay alert to the availability of diesel. Macquarie says the market backdrop for New Hope has improved due to increased demand for seaborne thermal coal, as fuel users substituting natural gas on Qatar's LNG outage. Still, New Hope relies on diesel fuel at its mines. Diesel accounts for some 20% of its costs. "Should diesel supplies become scarce, it could present a risk to continued operations across the sector," Macquarie says. "Management noted it doesn't see a near term risk but has engaged respective industry bodies to put in place preventive measures." Macquarie upgrades New Hope to "neutral," from "underperform." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2026 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)
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