Assessing Amcor (AMCR) Valuation After A Steep Recent Share Price Decline

Simply Wall St.03-20

AdvertisementAmcor stock performance snapshot Amcor (NYSE:AMCR) has been under pressure recently, with the share price showing a 2.9% decline over the past day, 4.1% over the past week, and about 22% ...

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The stock has declined 6.7% over the past 3 months and 15.7% over the past year, prompting some investors to reassess the packaging group’s current valuation.\nSee our latest analysis for Amcor.\nAt a share price of $38.69, Amcor’s recent 1...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1670710588.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK7063":"纸材料包装","BK4597":"股息贵族","AMC.AU":"AMCOR PLC-CDI","AMCR":"AMCOR PLC","LU1670711123.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU1670710661.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1670711040.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4136":"纸材料包装","BK4588":"碎股"},"translate_title":"在近期股价大幅下跌后评估Amcor(AMCR)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC.AU":1.5,"DCF":1,"AMCR":1},"content_text":"AdvertisementAmcor stock performance snapshot Amcor (NYSE:AMCR) has been under pressure recently, with the share price showing a 2.9% decline over the past day, 4.1% over the past week, and about 22% over the past month. Over longer periods, returns also remain negative. The stock has declined 6.7% over the past 3 months and 15.7% over the past year, prompting some investors to reassess the packaging group’s current valuation. See our latest analysis for Amcor. At a share price of $38.69, Amcor’s recent 1 month share price return of a 21.9% decline and 1 year total shareholder return of a 15.7% decline suggest momentum has been fading rather than building, which can influence how investors think about risk and potential recovery. If recent weakness in Amcor has you reassessing your watchlist, this can be a good moment to broaden your search and check out 20 top founder-led companies With Amcor trading at $38.69 and data suggesting a possible discount to some valuation estimates, the key question now is whether recent weakness has created a genuine buying opportunity or whether the market already reflects future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 673.8% Overvalued According to the most followed narrative from andy_c, a fair value of $5.00 sits far below Amcor's last close at $38.69, creating a wide gap that demands a closer look at the underlying assumptions.  Intrinsic Value (DCF) per share – Estimate: 4.85 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: A discounted cash flow model using TTM FCF of about 725 million dollars, 0% growth, 9% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth yields intrinsic value around 4.85 dollars per share.  Read the complete narrative. Want to understand why a mature packaging business with modest earnings growth ends up with such a low fair value range in this narrative? The key ingredients are conservative free cash flow assumptions, a firm discount rate and a profit profile that the author treats very cautiously. Curious how those inputs combine to justify a valuation so far below where the stock trades today? The full narrative lays out the complete playbook behind that $5.00 figure. Result: Fair Value of $5.00 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the narrative could crack if leverage around 3.4x EBITDA constrains choices, or if the current 4.2% ROE fails to recover from integration pressures. Find out about the key risks to this Amcor narrative. Another view: SWS DCF model points the other way While the user narrative’s own DCF points to a fair value of about $4.85 and labels Amcor as very expensive against the current $38.69 price, the SWS DCF model suggests the opposite, with an estimated future cash flow value of $75.62. That gap raises a simple question for you as an investor: which set of assumptions feels more realistic? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. AMCR Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Amcor for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps With such mixed signals around value and sentiment, it makes sense to move quickly, compare the bullish and cautious angles, and build your own thesis using the 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs Ready to hunt for your next idea? If Amcor’s mixed signals have you thinking twice, do not stop here. Use this moment to line up your next few ideas before the market moves.  Target resilience first and stress test your watchlist against 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores that may better match your comfort with volatility. Pinpoint quality at a discount by scanning screener containing 25 high quality undiscovered gems that might not yet be crowded with attention. Prioritise balance sheet strength and compare your current holdings with the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (40 results) before committing fresh capital.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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