US natural gas futures rise despite milder weather forecasts
Freezing pipes in North Dakota reduce gas output
Waha Hub prices negative due to pipeline constraints in Permian Basin
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 2% on Tuesday on a drop in output over the past few days, likely due to freezing pipes in North Dakota.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.3 cents, or 1.8%, to $3.076 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next couple of weeks that should allow energy firms to take the unusual step of injecting gas into storage during the normal winter heating season in March.
In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 28 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 3.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary six-week low of 107.5 bcfd on Tuesday, due primarily to reductions in North Dakota, according to LSEG data. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
That reduction was likely due to freezing pipes and wells with overnight lows in Bismarck, North Dakota, falling to minus six Fahrenheit (minus 21 Celsius) on Monday, according to AccuWeather. Those pipes will likely thaw soon with high temperatures expected to reach the 70s F in Bismarck on Thursday and Friday, according to the weather forecaster's projections.
RECORD HEAT IN LOS ANGELES
Meteorologists forecast heating demand would remain low across most of the country through April 1, but noted extreme heat in some parts of the country, like California, would boost demand for gas to fuel power generators needed to keep air conditioners humming.
High temperatures in Los Angeles will reach record-breaking levels near 99 F on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, according to AccuWeather. That compares with average highs of around 70 F in the City of Angels at this time of year.
In the U.S. Northeast and Michigan, meanwhile, around 420,000 homes and businesses were still without power following a series of storms that have battered the region since late last week. Those outages reduce the amount of gas power generators need to burn to produce electricity.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 122.8 bcfd this week to 114.1 bcfd next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants slid to 18.5 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
Week ended Mar 13 Forecast | Week ended Mar 6 Actual | Year ago Mar 13 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 13 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +8 | -38 | -1 | -29 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,856 | 1,848 | 1,706 | 1,836 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +0.1% | -0.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.06 | 3.02 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 17.62 | 17.13 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 19.27 | 16.18 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 238 | 255 | 204 | 254 | 256 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 36 | 32 | 20 | 17 | 13 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 274 | 287 | 224 | 271 | 269 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.0 | 109.8 | 110.1 | 106.4 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.4 | 7.6 | 8.0 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.4 | 117.5 | 118.1 | N/A | 108.0 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.8 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 13.9 | 19.7 | 15.2 | 16.3 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 28.5 | 28.4 | 27.9 | 28.2 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 24.7 | 23.6 | 23.9 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 83.3 | 94.0 | 85.1 | 86.8 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 112.8 | 122.8 | 114.1 | N/A | 118.7 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 100 | 99 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 99 | 99 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 104 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Mar 20 | Week ended Mar 13 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 19 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
32 | 34 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.03 | 3.20 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.05 | 2.36 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.63 | 1.64 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.78 | 2.55 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.99 | 2.96 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 4.83 | 2.81 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.14 | 1.98 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -3.80 | -1.76 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.26 | 1.34 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 54.90 | 50.33 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 99.04 | 72.17 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid Columbia W-MIDCP-IDX | 18.60 | 15.95 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 33.25 | 30.00 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 22.94 | 18.99 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Pooja Desai)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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