Assessing NextDecade (NEXT) Valuation After Ras Laffan LNG Supply Shock

Simply Wall St.03-20 15:14

AdvertisementWhy the Ras Laffan attacks matter for NextDecade Missile attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub have rattled global gas markets, focusing investor attention on U.S. liquefied natural gas ...

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See our latest analysis for NextDecade. Beyond the Ras Laffan headlines, NextDecade’s share price momentum has accelerated, with a 30 day share price return of 43.31% and a 35.32% year to date gain, even though the 1 year total shareholder return is a 16.80% decline and the 5 year total shareholder return stands at more than 2x. If you are weighing how LNG related names fit into a broader portfolio, this can be a good moment to widen the lens and consider 25 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks With NextDecade still loss making, trading around US$7.28 and sitting close to analyst targets, investors may question whether recent LNG turmoil has left the stock underappreciated or whether the market is already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 21.3% Overvalued With NextDecade closing at $7.28 against a most-followed fair value of $6.00, the current LNG driven excitement sits above that narrative benchmark.  A build out to 60 million tonnes per annum across 10 trains depends on continued appetite for long-dated LNG contracts into the 2030s and beyond. Any slowdown in long term contracting could leave capacity underutilized and weigh on revenue growth from Trains 6 through 8.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of future revenue ramp and margin shift would need to line up for that outcome. The core of this narrative leans on sharp improvement from today’s losses and a rich future earnings multiple that sits well above the sector. Curious which specific earnings profile and valuation hurdle sit behind that $6.00 fair value. Result: Fair Value of $6.00 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, firm execution on Rio Grande’s first five trains and higher long dated contracting, especially on later trains, could tighten cash flows and challenge this bearish view. Find out about the key risks to this NextDecade narrative. Next Steps If this mix of LNG tension and valuation debate leaves you uncertain, act quickly by testing the numbers yourself and weighing the 4 important warning signs Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you risk missing opportunities that could fit your goals even better, so keep scanning the market before you move on.  Spot potential value setups early by checking companies our models flag as high quality but potentially mispriced through the 49 high quality undervalued stocks Strengthen the defensive side of your portfolio by focusing on companies highlighted in the 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores Seek out smaller companies with solid fundamentals that the crowd may have overlooked using the screener containing 25 high quality undiscovered gems   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if NextDecade might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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