Trump's Fed Ally Miran Still Sees Four Fed Rate Cuts — Markets See Zero

Benzinga_recent_news03-23 23:10

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran — who has dissented in favor of rate cuts at every meeting since his appointment by President Donald Trump last year — said Monday that the Iran-driven oil shock...

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Markets are less convinced.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0130517989.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"R\" INC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","ALLY":"Ally Financial Inc.","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","LU0477156953.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4588":"碎股","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年"},"translate_title":"特朗普的美联储盟友米兰仍预计美联储将四次降息——市场预计为零","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BOXX":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"ZBmain":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"DUG":0.81,"FAZ":1.5,"GOVT":0.6,"SHV":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"XOP":0.81,"BIL":1.5,"UBmain":0.6,"ALLY":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"HYG":1.5,"BND":1.5},"content_text":"Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran — who has dissented in favor of rate cuts at every meeting since his appointment by President Donald Trump last year — said Monday that the Iran-driven oil shock does not alter his policy outlook, arguing the Fed should wait for clearer evidence before assessing the inflation impact of higher energy prices.\n“I think that we shouldn’t be making policy based on short-term headlines,” Miran said Monday during a Bloomberg interview.\n“It’s just still premature to have a clear view about what this is going to look like as you look 12 months out.”\nSince the start of the war in Iran, oil prices —  as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) —  have rallied nearly 40%, fueling fears of an upcoming inflationary wave.\n“These oil shocks have been things that this Fed has looked through for a long time,” Miran said. \n“It would be highly unusual for the Fed to start looking through them now.”\nTraditional central banking holds that oil shocks hit headline inflation hard but pass through to core inflation only weakly, and that central banks should look through the first-round effects unless two specific conditions emerge: inflation expectations beyond the first year start to rise, or wages begin responding to higher energy prices in a way that creates a self-reinforcing spiral. \nMiran said he sees neither.\nBut financial markets are sending a different signal. Prediction markets now put a 34% probability on zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 — a figure that has risen 19 percentage points in recent weeks — while the probability of an outright rate hike has climbed to 25%. \nThe chance of March inflation printing at or above 3.4% stands at 49%.\nAt the March FOMC meeting, the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections showed a median expectation of just one rate cut in 2026, alongside a higher inflation outlook, with headline inflation revised up to 2.7% from 2.4% in December.\nMiran entered the March FOMC meeting projecting four rate cuts for 2026 — down from six in his December Summary of Economic Projections — after trimming his outlook in response to inflation data received between the two projection periods. \nHe said Monday that the oil shock has not moved that baseline, but acknowledged that the balance of risks around it has deteriorated on both sides.\n“The balance of risks does change, but I think it’s actually changed on both sides equally,” Miran said. \n“The inflation risks have gotten a little more concerning, but the unemployment risks have gotten more concerning too — because the negative supply shock that is oil prices is also a negative demand shock. You’re taking money out of goods and services that are not energy.”\nThat framing — an oil shock as simultaneously inflationary and recessionary — is the core of Miran’s argument for holding course. Higher energy costs redirect consumer spending away from discretionary goods and services, depressing demand and nudging unemployment higher. \nThat demand destruction, in his view, partially offsets the headline inflation impulse and argues against tightening.\nChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, said separately on Monday that a circumstance could arise requiring rate hikes. \nMiran pushed back sharply — not on the logic, but on the analogy.\nThe 2021–22 oil shock, driven in part by the Russia-Ukraine invasion, reverberated through the economy because monetary and fiscal policy were at historically accommodative extremes — the Fed was purchasing $120 billion in assets per month and the federal government was deploying $2 trillion fiscal packages simultaneously. \nThat combination allowed the energy shock to ignite a broad-based inflation that took two years to suppress.\nThat condition does not exist today. “We’re not hitting the gas on demand,” Miran said. \n“We’re not boosting demand with all-time record accommodative policy in a way that would allow these prices to reverberate through the economy.”\nThe first is medium-term inflation expectations breaking higher. Miran said five-year forward inflation expectations in CPI swap markets have actually been declining lately — no evidence of de-anchoring beyond the immediate horizon. First-year expectations have risen, but that is a first-round effect the Fed traditionally accepts.\nThe second is a wage-price spiral. Miran said wage pressures have been declining on a “steady, steady, steady basis” for several years and that the labor market is “just not strong enough to worry about it.” \nThat is precisely why he dissented at the last meeting in favor of a 25 basis point cut — and has dissented at every preceding meeting on the same grounds.\nIf either condition materializes in the data, Miran indicated his outlook would shift. \nUntil then, four cuts remain his base case.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.37.0","shortVersion":"4.37.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2621071817","isCrawlerRequest":true}