Scaramucci Warns Iran Conflict Could Force Fed Into Rapid Rate Hikes, Says 'Trump Cannot Believe His Luck Has Run Out in Iran'

Benzinga03-22

In a post on X on Saturday, Scaramucci tied the policy risk to a sharp move in inflation pricing, pointing to a post from Mike Dorning citing Bloomberg data showing investors wagering on more than 5% ...

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He added that strategists are discussing a scenario where troops would be positioned on the eastern side of the waterway and push Iranian forces back roughly 50 miles to limit the ability to place threats into the channel.Scaramucci's proposed de-escalation sequence centered on lowering the risk premium embedded in oil, starting with restoring transit through the strait. He has sketched out multinational naval escorts involving France and the ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","BK4588":"碎股","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BK4581":"高盛持仓","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF"},"translate_title":"斯卡拉穆奇警告伊朗冲突可能迫使美联储快速加息，并表示“特朗普不敢相信他在伊朗的运气已经用完了”","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BOXX":1.5,"IEF":0.6,"FAZ":1.5,"UBmain":0.6,"BND":1.5,"TNmain":0.6,"HYG":1.5,"SHV":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"GOVT":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"BIL":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"ZTmain":0.6},"content_text":"In a post on X on Saturday, Scaramucci tied the policy risk to a sharp move in inflation pricing, pointing to a post from Mike Dorning citing Bloomberg data showing investors wagering on more than 5% U.S. inflation over the next 12 months. \n“The fallout from Iran war will likely force the Fed to now aggressively raise rates, when before the war it was on a path to aggressively cut rates,” Scaramucci said. \nIn another thread on X, Scaramucci described President Donald Trump as stunned by Iran's response and said the situation is now forcing serious discussion of ground forces.\nScaramucci said a 2,200-strong Marine Expeditionary Force is heading toward the Middle East as planners weigh a posture near the Strait of Hormuz. He added that strategists are discussing a scenario where troops would be positioned on the eastern side of the waterway and push Iranian forces back roughly 50 miles to limit the ability to place threats into the channel.\n“Trump is furious. What I know is Trump cannot believe that his luck has run out in Iran. Trump cannot believe that they hit back as hard as they hit back. He cannot believe that he may have to deploy ground troops,” Scaramucci said. \n“There’s a 2200 Marine Expeditionary Force heading to the Middle East and the military strategists are telling Trump, you’re going to have to drop those guys off by the Strait of Hormuz on the eastern side of the strait where the Iranians are and you’re going to have to dig in and you’re going to have to blow the Iranians back at least 50 miles off the strait,” he further added. \nScaramucci framed the macro risk as an energy shock feeding directly into inflation, which can change how traders handicap the Fed's next move. His view was that the central bank's path could swing from easing to tightening if the conflict keeps pressuring fuel and shipping costs.\nThat's where the Strait of Hormuz becomes a market pressure point, because disruption there can quickly translate into higher crude and broader price expectations. Scaramucci has argued that oil flows don't fully normalize until the fighting stops, making any inflation relief hard to sustain without a ceasefire.\nHe also described markets and Trump as locked in a feedback loop, with each side reacting to the other's signals. In that framework, he has suggested Trump could declare success and try to change the narrative even before every military objective is resolved.\nThis backdrop highlights the significant energy market risks tied to U.S. military decisions, reinforcing Scaramucci’s concerns about how the ongoing conflict could impact inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, particularly as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify.\nScaramucci's proposed de-escalation sequence centered on lowering the risk premium embedded in oil, starting with restoring transit through the strait. He has sketched out multinational naval escorts involving France and the U.S., alongside an insurance backstop aimed at making commercial shipping less costly.\nHe also pointed to a timeline claim from Mike Novogratz, saying Novogratz expects the conflict to be broadly finished within a week. Scaramucci argued that if that happens, Trump could present it as a win and trigger a rally that he said could look \"like that was the plan all along.\"\nSeparately, Scaramucci has warned that a U.S. strike on Iran could jolt energy markets and send oil sharply higher. He has also described a knock-on effect in which the political response could include pressure to loosen constraints on Russian oil, a shift he said would benefit Moscow and complicate U.S. operations.\nThis content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.38.0","shortVersion":"4.38.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2621710492","isCrawlerRequest":true}