The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0754 GMT - Oil prices rise as the U.S. and Iran threaten to widen their targets and escalate the war, with President Trump giving Tehran a deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rises 1.5% to $113.88 a barrel, while WTI is up 3.5% to $98.06 a barrel. Trump said Iran must "fully open" the waterway by Monday evening Washington time, or its power plants will be hit. Meanwhile, Tehran said it would attack key infrastructure across the Middle East if Trump followed through. "With production and exports heavily constrained, investors are sensitive to any threats to supply that could drag on the post-conflict recovery," analysts at BMI say. Brent could reach the $110-$130 a barrel range over the next one-to-two weeks if the conflict drags on, they add. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0741 GMT - The dollar rises as the intensifying Middle East conflict boosts safe-haven assets and energy prices. President Trump at the weekend threatened to attack Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened within 48 hours. Iran warned that it would respond to any such attacks. The dollar benefits from its safe-haven status as well as from America's energy independence. Higher energy prices have also prompted markets to pivot towards pricing in the chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year, LSEG data show. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 99.812.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0735 GMT - Gold prices fall to their weakest level this year as the Middle East conflict escalates, raising concerns over inflation and prospects of higher interest rates. In early European trading, New York futures drop 9.5% to $4,132.90 a troy ounce, extending last week's losses. "Prices recorded their biggest weekly loss since 1983 on concerns higher inflation will see the Fed hike rates," analysts at ANZ say. Surging energy prices--with Brent crude above $100 a barrel--have raised expectations for higher interest rates, dampening the outlook for non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, other precious metals follow suit, with silver futures falling 11.5% to $61.66 an ounce and platinum down 11.4% to $1,745.40 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0729 GMT - China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec, is likely to face a mixed earnings environment in the near term, says DBS Group Research's Pei Hwa Ho in a note. The Middle East conflict has driven crude oil prices higher, which should provide some upside to the Chinese energy major's upstream segment, the analyst says. However, its downstream-heavy portfolio could see pressure on its refining and petrochemical margins. Elevated crude costs, structural demand softness in China and ongoing petrochemical oversupply are expected to constrain the company's profitability, she adds. She prefers upstream peers Cnooc and PetroChina for their better risk-reward profiles. The analyst cuts her 2026-2027 earnings estimates by 24%-26%. DBS is reviewing its rating and target price. The stock is down 3.2% at HK$4.53. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0720 GMT - The largest oil supply shock ever will likely lead to a rethink about energy risks, Goldman Sachs' oil team says. "We now expect policymakers to rebuild higher strategic reserve levels after reopening of the Strait [of Hormuz] and markets to build a security premium in long-dated prices." GS says the shock hasn't fully spread to the West and remains mostly a local crisis, leading to extreme declines in oil transit and tightness in Asia, which typically accounts for 95% Hormuz imports. Still, commercial crude stocks in American and European OECD countries are rising. GS now sees Brent averaging $110 in March-April--up 62% from the 2025 average. It forecasts WTI to average $98 in March and $105 in April, as markets price U.S. exports keeping the Brent-WTI gap wide. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
0658 GMT - If the Iran-Iraq war is any guide about Iran's thinking, then Iran's tolerance for pain is way higher than many analysts think, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. Also, negotiations and an end of war may be much trickier than U.S. President Trump might be thinking, the global economist says. As the war might be longer than investors were hoping for, "we could see further risky asset repricing and increased focus on stagflation/recession risk than is currently the case," Kumar says. Positioning is not yet clean in a number of assets as investors were hoping for a quick end to the war, so some more position squaring may be due, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0654 GMT - U.S. President Trump seems to have started his war of choice without any half-realistic exit strategy and against the advice of his own military leaders, Berenberg's Holger Schmieding says in a note. In order to end the war in the near future, he will probably need a deal with the current Iranian regime, the chief economist says. "The deal could be implicit: we stop, but we will hit you hard again if you do not stop yourself in response," he says. "Or it could be explicit, for instance sanctions relief for Iran in return for an end to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs." The balance of risks is tilting toward a further escalation first before a deal to end the war may become likely, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0651 GMT - The continuing Middle East conflict, limited visibility on a ramp-off and central banks' preliminary analysis of the stagflationary environment have prompted a revision to Morgan Stanley's central bank calls, rates strategists Luca Salford and Maria Chiara Russo say in a note. Morgan Stanley now expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in 2026, in June and September, but to unwind those hikes in 2027. Money markets currently price in three ECB rate increases this year, according to LSEG. The strategists also forecast the 10-year German Bund yield ending 2026 at 2.80% and 2027 at 2.70% under their baseline ECB rate-path scenario. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.038% on Friday, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0631 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise across the board in Asian trade, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.423%, the highest level since July 2025, before slightly easing from that level, according to Tradeweb data. The rise comes as oil prices remain elevated, with Brent last trading at $113.37. "Tensions in the Middle East remained high over the weekend amid mixed messaging from the U.S. on the outlook for the war, further military actions and engagement around the Strait of Hormuz," Danske Bank's Jens Naervig Pedersen says in a note. The 10-year Treasury yield last trades at 4.417%, up 2.5 basis points. The two-year Treasury yield rises 5.6 basis points to 3.949%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0615 GMT - Asia-Pacific's growth is expected to slow this year amid a mix of external threats, Moody's Analytics economists write in a commentary. The Middle East conflict has pushed up commodity prices and raised inflation risks. Most Asia-Pacific economies also rely heavily on energy imports, with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, particularly dependent on imported fossil fuels. Additionally, the region faces tariff uncertainty and has been dependent on exports. "With access to the U.S. market becoming more difficult, the imbalance leaves the region exposed," the economists say. Moody's Analytics expects growth across the Asia-Pacific region to slow to 4% in 2026 from 4.3% in 2025. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0536 GMT - Asian currencies mostly weaken against dollar during the regional trading session, as high oil prices spurred by the Middle East conflict stoke fears of slower economic growth in the region. The Iran "crisis is already acutely affecting Asia economies," MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a report. If this drags on further, it will probably lead to energy shortages across the Asian region, the senior currency analyst says. The dollar rises 0.2% to 93.9240 rupees after earlier touching a record high of 93.9740 rupees, LSEG data show. The dollar is also 0.2% higher at 159.48 yen and up 0.2% at 1,508.20 won. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 03:54 ET (07:54 GMT)
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