The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0823 GMT - The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely stay on hold in April, despite core inflation rising in February, Barclays economist Brian Tan writes in a note. Core inflation--which is closely watched by the MAS--accelerated in February, mainly due to base effects for uncooked food prices and volatile travel costs. "Our estimates indicate demand-pull pressures remain broadly stable at relatively benign levels," Tan says. The monetary policy statement and other comments from officials next month are likely to sound relatively hawkish, but this may be mainly intended to keep inflation expectations under control, and not to signal monetary policy tightening. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0815 GMT - Bitcoin stays weak after hitting a two-week low overnight as the widening Middle East conflict dampens risk appetite. President Trump at the weekend threatened to attack Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened within 48 hours and Iran warned it would retaliate. "The escalation puts investors in a difficult spot," Danske Bank analysts say in a note. The energy price shock could become permanent if oil infrastructure is hit, they say. However, if the U.S. can take control of the Strait, it would be positive for risk sentiment, they say. Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $68,350 after hitting a low of $67,383, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0813 GMT - The Middle East conflict has started to affect Japan's closely watched annual wage negotiations, clouding the outlook for whether the positive cycle of higher pay leading to more spending and mild inflation will continue. Some oil-related firms have requested a delay in finalizing wage talks in the wake of heightened geopolitical risks, a labor union official says. Preliminary data from Japan's largest labor union group shows its members secured wage increases of 5.26% on average. That is slightly higher than the 5.25% gain recorded in the final results for last year, but lower than the preliminary 2025 figure of 5.46%. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0802 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields jump, tracking U.S. Treasury yields, as the ever-lengthening war in the Middle East exacerbates investors' inflation concerns. The 10-year Bund yield rises further above 3%, hitting 3.073% in early trade, according to Tradeweb. The 10-year Italian BTP yield rising 9.5 basis points to 4.032%, trading above 4% for the first time since July 2024. The 10-year French OAT yield rises 6.8 basis points to 3.804%, with both Italian-German and French-German yield spreads hitting multi-month highs. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0741 GMT - The dollar rises as the intensifying Middle East conflict boosts safe-haven assets and energy prices. President Trump at the weekend threatened to attack Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn't opened within 48 hours. Iran warned that it would respond to any such attacks. The dollar benefits from its safe-haven status as well as from America's energy independence. Higher energy prices have also prompted markets to pivot towards pricing in the chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year, LSEG data show. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 99.812.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0735 GMT - Gold prices fall to their weakest level this year as the Middle East conflict escalates, raising concerns over inflation and prospects of higher interest rates. In early European trading, New York futures drop 9.5% to $4,132.90 a troy ounce, extending last week's losses. "Prices recorded their biggest weekly loss since 1983 on concerns higher inflation will see the Fed hike rates," analysts at ANZ say. Surging energy prices--with Brent crude above $100 a barrel--have raised expectations for higher interest rates, dampening the outlook for non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, other precious metals follow suit, with silver futures falling 11.5% to $61.66 an ounce and platinum down 11.4% to $1,745.40 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0658 GMT - If the Iran-Iraq war is any guide about Iran's thinking, then Iran's tolerance for pain is way higher than many analysts think, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. Also, negotiations and an end of war may be much trickier than U.S. President Trump might be thinking, the global economist says. As the war might be longer than investors were hoping for, "we could see further risky asset repricing and increased focus on stagflation/recession risk than is currently the case," Kumar says. Positioning is not yet clean in a number of assets as investors were hoping for a quick end to the war, so some more position squaring may be due, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0654 GMT - U.S. President Trump seems to have started his war of choice without any half-realistic exit strategy and against the advice of his own military leaders, Berenberg's Holger Schmieding says in a note. In order to end the war in the near future, he will probably need a deal with the current Iranian regime, the chief economist says. "The deal could be implicit: we stop, but we will hit you hard again if you do not stop yourself in response," he says. "Or it could be explicit, for instance sanctions relief for Iran in return for an end to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs." The balance of risks is tilting toward a further escalation first before a deal to end the war may become likely, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0651 GMT - The continuing Middle East conflict, limited visibility on a ramp-off and central banks' preliminary analysis of the stagflationary environment have prompted a revision to Morgan Stanley's central bank calls, rates strategists Luca Salford and Maria Chiara Russo say in a note. Morgan Stanley now expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in 2026, in June and September, but to unwind those hikes in 2027. Money markets currently price in three ECB rate increases this year, according to LSEG. The strategists also forecast the 10-year German Bund yield ending 2026 at 2.80% and 2027 at 2.70% under their baseline ECB rate-path scenario. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.038% on Friday, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0631 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise across the board in Asian trade, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.423%, the highest level since July 2025, before slightly easing from that level, according to Tradeweb data. The rise comes as oil prices remain elevated, with Brent last trading at $113.37. "Tensions in the Middle East remained high over the weekend amid mixed messaging from the U.S. on the outlook for the war, further military actions and engagement around the Strait of Hormuz," Danske Bank's Jens Naervig Pedersen says in a note. The 10-year Treasury yield last trades at 4.417%, up 2.5 basis points. The two-year Treasury yield rises 5.6 basis points to 3.949%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0616 GMT - Japan's core consumer inflation is expected to have slowed below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time in nearly four years. Government data due Tuesday is likely to show that consumer prices, excluding fresh food, climbed 1.7% in February from a year earlier, according to economists polled by data provider Quick. That compares with January's 2.0% increase. The slowdown will likely allow the central bank more time to deliberate on its next tightening step, as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions continues to cloud the economic outlook.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0615 GMT - Eurozone inflation-linked government bonds have proved to be a "veritable bulwark" against the abrupt price slide that the outbreak of the Iran war triggered on the global bond markets, LBBW's Elmar Voelker says in a note. "In a monthly comparison, the geopolitically induced dip in sentiment left the linkers cold on balance," the senior fixed income analyst says. By contrast, the eurozone government bond market as a whole gave up most of the gains made in January and February, he says. "Since mid-February, the linkers have thus significantly expanded their slight year-to-date outperformance which they at the start of the year." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2026 04:24 ET (08:24 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments