Sunac China Holdings (SEHK:1918) Valuation After Narrowed 2025 Loss Guidance And Ongoing Debt Restructuring

Simply Wall St.03-22

Sunac China Holdings (SEHK:1918) has issued unaudited earnings guidance for 2025, indicating an expected loss of RMB 12.0 billion to RMB 13.0 billion, compared with a loss of about RMB 25.70 billion ...

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The latest HK$1.17 share price reflects weaker...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK1555":"内房股","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","01918":"融创中国","BK1240":"房地产开发","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc"},"translate_title":"融创中国控股（SEHK：1918）2025年亏损指引收窄和持续债务重组后的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"01918":0.9},"content_text":"Sunac China Holdings (SEHK:1918) has issued unaudited earnings guidance for 2025, indicating an expected loss of RMB 12.0 billion to RMB 13.0 billion, compared with a loss of about RMB 25.70 billion in 2024. See our latest analysis for Sunac China Holdings. The updated 2025 guidance comes after a difficult stretch for shareholders, with a 1-year total shareholder return decline of 29.09% and a 5-year total shareholder return decline of 96.08%. The latest HK$1.17 share price reflects weaker recent share price returns and an ongoing focus on balance sheet repair. If you are reassessing your exposure to Chinese property developers, it can help to widen the net and review other parts of the market using the 95 top founder-led companies With the share price near analysts’ target and a large stated intrinsic discount, plus ongoing losses and balance sheet repair, you have to ask: is Sunac now trading below its underlying value, or is the market already pricing in any recovery? AdvertisementPreferred Price-to-Sales Multiple of 0.3x: Is It Justified? On our numbers, Sunac China Holdings trades on a P/S of 0.3x at the HK$1.17 share price, which screens as expensive against its direct peer group but lower than the wider Hong Kong real estate sector. The P/S ratio compares the company’s market value to its revenue and is often used when earnings are negative, as is the case here. For a business generating CN¥59,727.18m in revenue and reporting a loss of CN¥23,546.67m, investors are effectively paying 0.3x sales for a company that is currently unprofitable. The key question is what level of future revenue and margins that price is implicitly baking in. Compared with close peers where the average P/S stands at 0.2x, Sunac’s 0.3x multiple looks richer, which implies the market is assigning a premium relative to that group. However, when set against the Hong Kong real estate industry average P/S of 0.6x, the same 0.3x looks conservative. Our fair P/S estimate of 0.4x sits between those two anchors and suggests the current level could move toward that mid point if the market’s view of the company’s revenue outlook and risk profile shifts. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Sunac China Holdings Result: Price-to-Sales of 0.3x (ABOUT RIGHT) However, you still need to weigh ongoing losses of CN¥23,546.67m and the long property downturn in China, which could keep pressure on sentiment and asset values. Find out about the key risks to this Sunac China Holdings narrative. Another View: Our DCF Estimate Paints A Different Picture While the current 0.3x P/S suggests the share price is roughly in line with a mid range sales multiple, the SWS DCF model points in a different direction. At HK$1.17, Sunac China Holdings is trading around 79.2% below an estimated future cash flow value of HK$5.62, which frames the current price as heavily discounted if those cash flow assumptions hold up. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. 1918 Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Sunac China Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 226 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps Mixed signals like these can feel uncomfortable, so do not wait around for consensus. Review the full picture, including the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs, with the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop here, you only get part of the opportunity set, so give yourself a fuller menu of options by scanning other ideas that fit your style.  Target steadier compounders by reviewing companies in the 283 resilient stocks with low risk scores that may suit a more cautious approach. Hunt for quality at a marked down price by scanning the 226 high quality undervalued stocks to see where fundamentals and valuation line up. Tap into potential income ideas by browsing companies in the 476 dividend fortresses and see which yields warrant a closer look.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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