The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1014 ET - Fertilizer prices will remain elevated over the long term because of damage to infrastructure in the Middle East, Jefferies analysts write. Constraints to the export of ammonia caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will push prices higher, the analysts say. Since February, contract prices have risen for ammonia and potash by 6% and 2%, respectively. Ammonia supply will be further reduced after Yara International paused production at its Pilbara plant in Australia, the analysts say. European fertilizer stocks gain, with ammonia-producer Yara climbing 4.2%, while potash-producer K+S gains 3.4%. Chemicals group IMCD gains 5.1%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0940 ET - TD Securities is lifting quarterly and annual price projections for crude oil and most base metals amid the ongoing conflict in Iran, while sharply reducing precious metals price expectations due to higher inflation expectations, a strong U.S. dollar and sharply higher yields across the curve. However, it expects gold, silver and platinum to recover strongly as the energy shock wanes later in the year. TD's 2026 WTI and Brent annual average prices are lifted 36% to $85.25/barrel and $89.75/barrel. Its aluminum price forecast is hiked 17% to $3,481/ton. Gold and silver annual average projections are cut 1% to $4,800/oz and $74.75/oz, with platinum downgraded by 2% to $2,024/oz. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
0630 ET - Palm oil ended lower on Tuesday. Prices tracked weaker soybean oil and crude oil, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees support at 4,500 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,680 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery fell 72 ringgit to 4,539 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0116 ET - Energy shortage may not be a big concern for China in the near term, Nomura analysts say in a research note. Coal still accounts for more than half of China's domestic energy mix and provides a reliable domestic energy backstop, they say, adding that Beijing could ramp up domestic coal production in the coming weeks. China's resilient renewable energy expansion also strengthens its resilience, they add. China's limited fuel price hike also shows Beijing's efforts to cushion the oil price shock, they say. China's top economic planner announced a price hike of 1,160 yuan a ton for gasoline and 1,115 yuan a ton for diesel, which is around half the increase from a regular pricing mechanism, the analysts add.(sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0030 ET - Petronas Chemicals could benefit from higher urea and polyethylene prices amid supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure, CGS International analyst Raymond Yap says in a note. Urea prices have surged 47% since the Iran conflict. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, urea prices may stay elevated as damaged facilities take time to repair, he reckons. He expects Petronas Chemicals' fertilizers and methanol selling prices to rise 40% on year in 2026, up from 25% expected previously. Polyethylene prices could rise further amid lower plant operating rates and constrained feedstock supply, with additional upside if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for longer, he adds. CGS raises Petronas Chemicals' target price to 6.58 ringgit from 5.54 ringgit, while maintaining an add rating on the stock. Shares are 3.6% higher at 5.68 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2234 ET - Iron ore prices rise in early Asia trade as both supply and demand show signs of improvement. Steel output has picked up alongside the resumption of production at mills, supporting near-term consumption, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. Weak profitability, however, limits the pace of further increases on iron ore prices, analysts say. On the supply side, port arrivals are recovering and shipments from major miners continue to rise, while domestic production edges higher, keeping overall supply on a steady uptrend, they add. The most actively traded May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.2% higher at CNY821.0 a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2227 ET - Copper is lower in early Asian trading. The base metal's price fell as volatility in gold spilled over into the metals sector. Investors are becoming more interested in buying the dips after a sharp drop recently, according to Nanhua Futures analysts in a commentary. That said, with the overall positioning remains low, and copper prices are unlikely to surge much, they note. The three-month LME copper contract is 1.05% lower at $12,039.00 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2222 ET - LG Chem 1Q earnings are expected to see a limited impact from the Middle East conflict, Daiwa Capital's Henny Jung and Yoonki Bae say. Geopolitical tensions have raised expectations of near-term naphtha shortages, and potential petrochemical supply shortfalls have recently lifted sector share prices, the analysts write in a note. But they caution that petrochemical fundamentals remain weak, with modest improvement expected in 1Q. They note that the South Korean chemical company holds about one month of naphtha inventory, and difficulties in procurement could lead to lower factory utilization in 2Q. They caution against overly optimistic sentiment. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
2127 ET - Zijin Mining's earnings growth in 1Q could continue as sales volume and product average-selling prices rise, say DBS Group Research analysts in a note. They expect the Chinese miner to post another quarter with record-high operating results on higher metal prices. While price volatility in precious metals could weigh on near-term share-price, the company's share buyback plan could support, they say. DBS maintains its 2026 gold and copper price projections at $4,800 a troy ounce and $11,000 a metric ton, respectively. DBS retains its buy rating on the stock with its Hong Kong share target at HK$55.00 and Shanghai share target at 51.00 yuan. H shares last closed at HK$32.52, while A shares ended at 30.58 yuan. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2059 ET - China Hongqiao could turn net cash in 2026 as earnings accelerate on higher aluminum prices amid tight global supply, CMB International analyst Wayne Fung said. He adds the company will benefit from Middle East supply disruptions and slow new capacity in Indonesia. CMB estimates each 1% rise in aluminum prices could lift 2026 earnings by 2%-3%, and maintains a buy rating with a HK$45 target price. (venkat.pr@wsj.com)
1840 ET [Dow Jones]--In Australia's mining sector, some companies are more exposed to higher diesel prices and fuel-supply risks than others. Bell Potter says a small cohort may also benefit from the energy squeeze, citing those with access to renewable-power supply or those that produce their own energy. "The current energy crisis may also speed the energy transition to lower-carbon electrification, favoring battery minerals and uranium," Bell Potter says. "Underground and in-situ leach mining operations are also less exposed to diesel supply risks." One example is Boss Energy, which draws power for its Honeymoon uranium project directly from the grid. Bell Potter also names Liontown Resources, Nickel Industries and Vulcan Energy Resources as relatively sheltered from fuel supply and price shocks. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2026 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)
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