Macquarie says copper is oversupplied and overpriced

Mining03-26 20:07

Copper ended Thursday down 1.5% from the previous close and May futures were last worth 5.47 per pound or little over $12,000 a tonne. Copper has given up more than 16% or $2,400 per tonne from its ...

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Copper has given up more than 16% or $2,400 per tonne from its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.mining.com/macquarie-says-copper-is-oversupplied-and-overpriced/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"mining_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Macquarie says copper is oversupplied and overpriced</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMacquarie says copper is oversupplied and overpriced\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-26 20:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.mining.com/macquarie-says-copper-is-oversupplied-and-overpriced/><strong>Mining</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Copper ended Thursday down 1.5% from the previous close and May futures were last worth 5.47 per pound or little over $12,000 a tonne. Copper has given up more than 16% or $2,400 per tonne from its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.mining.com/macquarie-says-copper-is-oversupplied-and-overpriced/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_MHG","symbol_name":"微型铜","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.mining.com/macquarie-says-copper-is-oversupplied-and-overpriced/","article_id":"2622117768","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/AdobeStock_370002426-scaled-e1715701685690.jpeg"],"rights":{"source":"mining_highlight","url":"https://www.mining.com/macquarie-says-copper-is-oversupplied-and-overpriced/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622117768","pubTimestamp":1774526820,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"mining_highlight","name":"MINING.COM"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Copper is down 16% from January, but more pain could be ahead as global inventories…","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"mining.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CPXR":"USCF DAILY TARGET 2X COPPER INDEX ETF","ICOP":"iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF","COPJ":"SPROTT JUNIOR COPPER MINERS ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR","COPP":"Sprott Copper Miners ETF","CPER":"美国铜指数基金"},"translate_title":"麦格理称铜供应过剩且价格过高","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CPXR":1.5,"QCmain":1.5,"ICOP":1.5,"CPER":1.5,"XME":1.5,"MHGmain":1.5,"COPJ":1.5,"COPP":1.5},"content_text":"Copper ended Thursday down 1.5% from the previous close and May futures were last worth 5.47 per pound or little over $12,000 a tonne. Copper has given up more than 16% or $2,400 per tonne from its all-time high struck at the end of January, a day before the start of the Iran war. \nIn a new analysis from Macquarie Strategy, the bank’s 11 analysts in locations including Geneva, Houston, London, Shanghai and Singapore argue that copper’s extraordinary run since December was less about fundamentals and largely driven by investor flows into base metals. Shanghai futures exchange trading volumes in base metals in January was up 80% over December for instance.  \nMacquarie also points out aggregate open interest in copper contracts across New York, London and Shanghai swelled by $9.5 billion across December and January before reversing course, with a $24.6 billion decline through February and March accompanying the price correction. \nIn Macquarie’s view, the rally has left the market “overpriced, oversupplied and over the pond,” with little evidence of genuine tightness in physical supply. \nVisible global inventories have risen sharply, increasing by more than 1 million tonnes since the start of 2025. Stocks on the LME have climbed to six-year highs, while inventories on COMEX have reached unprecedented levels. The bank also estimates that a further 480,000 tonnes of copper is sitting off-exchange in the United States, drawn in by arbitrage opportunities between CME and LME pricing. \nMuch of the excess metal has accumulated in the US, creating what Macquarie describes as an artificial sense of scarcity elsewhere. The arb trade – COMEX premiums reached unheard of levels of more than $2,000 a tonne in December and January but has now compressed to more historic levels. \nNevertheless, the CME-LME arbitrage continues to pull metal into the US, says Macquarie as traders position ahead of a potential Section 232 decision on copper imports, expected by June 30, 2026. While recent developments in US critical minerals policy may have reduced the likelihood of tariffs, Macquarie cautions that the outcome remains uncertain and continues to influence trade flows.\nAs prices have eased Chinese consumers have begun to return, with a notable drawdown in inventories reported in the latest week. Outside China, however, demand remains subdued. Spot premiums are well below contract levels and there is limited appetite for physical metal, suggesting that elevated prices have dampened consumption across key regions. \nThis weakening demand backdrop comes even as supply continues to build, reinforcing Macquarie’s estimate that the market was already in a surplus of roughly 602,000 tonnes last year.\nMacro factors are likely to remain the dominant driver of prices in the near term. The bank expects copper to trade with heightened volatility, influenced more by investor positioning and geopolitical developments than by underlying supply-demand. \nA resolution to tensions involving Iran could provide short-term support, but such gains would likely be sentiment-driven rather than rooted in fundamentals.\nUltimately, Macquarie sees mounting downside risks. With more than 1 million tonnes of visible inventories accumulated since the beginning of 2025 and further surpluses forecast, the bank warns that the market lacks fundamental support at current price levels. \nThe recent pullback may prove to be an early indication that copper’s rally has run ahead of reality, leaving prices vulnerable to a deeper correction as the year progresses.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.38.0","shortVersion":"4.38.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2622117768","isCrawlerRequest":true}