Air China (SEHK:753) Q4 EPS Loss Deepens Earnings Volatility Narrative

Simply Wall St.03-27

Air China (SEHK:753) has followed up its full year 2025 release with a mixed final quarter, reporting Q4 revenue of CNY 41.7b alongside a basic EPS loss of CNY 0.27 per share as trailing twelve month ...

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Over recent periods, quarterly revenue has ranged from CNY 40.0b to CNY 49.1b while EPS has swung between a loss of CNY 0.27 and a profit of CNY 0.30 per share. This leaves investors weighing near term earnings volatility against the...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK1123":"航空公司","BK1514":"人民币升值概念","BK1561":"航空股","BK1505":"一带一路","00753":"中国国航"},"translate_title":"国航(SEHK：753)第四季度每股收益亏损加深盈利波动性叙述","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00753":0.9},"content_text":"Air China (SEHK:753) has followed up its full year 2025 release with a mixed final quarter, reporting Q4 revenue of CNY 41.7b alongside a basic EPS loss of CNY 0.27 per share as trailing twelve month EPS sits at a loss of CNY 0.11 on revenue of CNY 171.5b. Over recent periods, quarterly revenue has ranged from CNY 40.0b to CNY 49.1b while EPS has swung between a loss of CNY 0.27 and a profit of CNY 0.30 per share. This leaves investors weighing near term earnings volatility against the supplied view of rapid earnings growth and a path back to profitability. Margins remain under pressure, so the key question from this update is how quickly the business can translate this revenue base into more consistent profitability. See our full analysis for Air China. With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up against the widely followed narratives around Air China's recovery prospects and risk profile. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives SEHK:753 Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Mar 2026 AdvertisementLosses Persist On 171.5b CNY Revenue Base  On a trailing 12 month view, Air China generated CNY 171.5b of revenue while reporting a net loss of CNY 1.8b and basic EPS of CNY 0.11 loss. Bears often point to airline cost pressure and policy factors, and this data aligns with that cautious view as:\n     Four of the last six individual quarters in the dataset show net losses, including CNY 3.6b in Q4 2025 and CNY 2.0b in Q1 2025. This fits the idea of a capital intensive business with profits that can swing quickly. Even with full year 2025 revenue per quarter mostly above CNY 40b, trailing 12 month net income stayed in loss territory at CNY 1.8b, so higher top line alone has not translated into consistent profits in the supplied numbers.    EPS Swings From 0.30 Profit To 0.27 Loss  EPS has moved between a CNY 0.30 profit in Q3 2024 and a CNY 0.27 loss in Q4 2025, with the latest trailing 12 month EPS at a CNY 0.11 loss. Supporters of a bullish recovery story see these swings as part of a turnaround, and the figures both help and challenge that view:\n     On the positive side, the dataset includes three profitable quarters in the last six, such as Q3 2025 with CNY 3.7b net income and CNY 0.21 EPS. This fits a bullish idea that the business can produce profits in certain periods. On the other hand, losses in Q1 and Q4 2025 totaling around CNY 5.7b show that earnings volatility remains high, so the path to the forecasted earnings growth rate of 94.53% per year is not yet visible in a smooth trend.    Valuation Sits About 40% Below DCF Fair Value  With the share price at HK$4.77 against a stated DCF fair value of HK$7.98, Air China is trading about 40.2% below that estimate and on a P/S of 0.4x versus 1.6x for peers and 0.7x for the wider Asian Airlines industry. For investors weighing a bullish valuation case against ongoing losses, the data sets up a clear tension:\n     Support for the bullish angle comes from forecasts that earnings may grow 94.53% per year with an expected return to profitability within three years, while the current P/S of 0.4x is lower than both peer and industry averages in the supplied figures. Balancing that, trailing 12 month net income remains a CNY 1.8b loss and revenue is forecast to grow at 6.9% per year compared with 8.2% for the Hong Kong market, so the low multiples sit alongside slower forecast top line growth and current unprofitability.    Stay on top of how these valuation gaps and earnings forecasts evolve over time with the latest structured breakdowns and context rich charts in See our latest analysis for Air China.. Next Steps Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Air China's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move. If the mixed signals in the recent results leave you undecided, now is a good time to review the numbers yourself and form a clear stance. To see what others view as the key upside factors, start with the 3 key rewards Explore Alternatives Air China's results highlight ongoing losses on a CNY 171.5b revenue base, with volatile EPS and margins that have not yet settled into consistent profitability. If you want ideas where profitability and balance sheet strength are more of a feature than a question mark, check out the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (381 results) to quickly focus on companies with sturdier financial footing.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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