Iran Has Distracted From the Mag 7 Slump. Why It's a Good Thing for Stock Markets. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones03-26 18:54

The Magnificent Seven has quickly become the Miserable Seven for investors this year.

The broader weakness and the Iran war may have distracted investors from just how bad things have gotten for the megacap market leaders. The tech giants have been driving the market higher for years -- now they're leading the charge lower.

Microsoft stock has fallen 23% in 2026, on track for its worst quarter since the final three months of 2008 and its worst start to a year ever. Google owner Alphabet has also suffered a sharp decline -- it's down 15% from its closing high set just last month, and not far off bear-market territory.

Only Nvidia and Amazon have eked out gains since the Middle East conflict started, and they are still down 4% and 8% this year.

The entire group is at least 10% off their 52-week closing highs, ranging from Apple's 12% fall to Microsoft's 32% tumble, and Meta's 25% slump in between, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Of course, those drops have all come after meteoric rises amid the artificial intelligence boom.

But it poses a tricky question for investors -- is it time to buy back into these well-loved behemoths?

The rapid shift in interest-rate expectations since the war began on Feb. 28 won't help the group. Markets now see a greater chance of hikes by the end of the year rather than cuts, according to CME's FedWatch tool. A Federal Reserve cutting cycle was a key argument against the AI bubble bursting -- that defense has now collapsed. But the Mag 7's poor run, and broader tech weakness, means plenty of air has come out of the market -- that may not be a bad thing in the long term.

-- Callum Keown

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Meta, YouTube Ordered to Pay Damages Over 'Addictive' Design

A state court in Los Angeles awarded $6 million in damages, half of it punitive, from Meta Platforms and YouTube parent Alphabet to a woman who said the social media apps' addictive design contributed to mental health issues including anxiety and depression. The verdict could set a precedent.

   -- Both Meta and YouTube disagreed with the jury and will appeal. "Teen 
      mental health is profoundly complex and cannot be linked to a single app, 
      " Meta's spokesperson said. Google said the case "misunderstands YouTube, 
      " which it says isn't a social media site. The verdict found Meta 70% 
      responsible. 
 
   -- The jury rejected the companies' Section 230 defense, a law that says 
      companies aren't liable for third-party content posted on their sites. 
      The now 20-year-old woman who sued said elements like "infinite scroll" 
      aim to keep users glued to their phones. 
 
   -- In a Northern California federal district courtroom, another trial 
      consolidates over 2,000 similar cases into a single trial, and names Meta 
      as the first defendant, along with other apps like YouTube, Snapchat, and 
      TikTok. Hundreds of school districts and most U.S. states' attorneys 
      general have also filed lawsuits. 
 
   -- A New Mexico jury on Tuesday ruled that Meta failed to protect young 
      people from online dangers, including sexually explicit content, 
      solicitation, and human trafficking, and ordered it to pay a $375 million 
      penalty. Meta said it would appeal the ruling. 

What's Next: The plaintiff said apps like Instagram and YouTube keep users on their devices even as their mental health declines and makes them vulnerable to exploitation. If other cases cite this defense and courts say social media companies are responsible, future damages could be higher.

-- Adam Levine

Microsoft Stock Off to Worst Three-Month Start to a Year

Microsoft stock is heading for its worst three-month start to a year ever, now about 32% lower than the all-time high closing price it reached just five months ago, when it closed at $542.07 on Oct. 28, 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It's having its worst six-month stretch since 2009.

   -- Just two weeks ago, Barron's called Microsoft a stock pick, saying it 
      hasn't been this cheap in a decade. But some investors worry about the 
      growth of its two main businesses: cloud computing and software, a 
      product that has been under threat from AI across the tech industry. 
 
   -- A note from UBS Global Research described reactions from the bank's 
      investors in Asia when asked to remark on Microsoft's 365 Copilot 
      offering. The AI-powered productivity tool had about 15 million 
      subscribers at the end of the last quarter, but the investors said it 
      should have had more. 
 
   -- The analysts said the narrative around Microsoft 365/Copilot "needs to 
      improve in order for the stock to really re-rate higher." The investors 
      in Asia concluded that Copilot has "disappointed" so far. Microsoft has 
      lost nearly $1.28 trillion in market value since that October high mark, 
      Dow Jones Market Data said. 
 
   -- Microsoft told UBS that although it needs to innovate faster, it can be a 
      successful "fast follower." Despite investor skepticism about Copilot, 
      Microsoft told UBS that Copilot usage picked up in its December quarter. 

What's Next: UBS said Microsoft offered no signal about Azure cloud-computing's revenue growth and capacity additions beyond the March quarter, and the analysts sensed that the GPU shift that weighed on its stock could persist. Microsoft reports its March quarter earnings on April 28.

-- Janet H. Cho

The Iran War Puts the Spotlight on Taiwan Risks

The Iran war and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz offer a stark reminder of a different geopolitical risk, one lurking in tech-heavy global portfolios that are betting on AI: Taiwan. Beijing claims the self-ruled island as its own and intends to unify it with the mainland, by force if necessary, making Taiwan a geopolitical tripwire.

   -- Investors often think China wouldn't dare attack anytime soon because of 
      the cascading ramifications. Their reasoning: If China were to invade, 
      the damage wouldn't be just to holdings such as Taiwan Semiconductor 
      Manufacturing, which makes more than 90% of advanced semiconductors, but 
      to the entire global economy. 
 
   -- But the Iran conflict is a reminder of the risks to global chokeholds and 
      the potential spillover from geopolitical conflict. One-fifth of the 
      world's oil passes through the strait. Taiwan produces three-quarters of 
      global chip foundry revenue and is home to companies crucial to anything 
      with an on/off switch. 
 
   -- While the International Energy Agency released 400 million reserve 
      barrels of oil to blunt the effects of the Hormuz closure on energy 
      prices, no such stash exists for chips. China's levers to exact financial 
      pain would have an effect far wider than what Iran can inflict, Hoover 
      Institute fellow Eyck Freymann observes. 
 
   -- Taiwan has at least three months of oil stockpiled. It is turning on some 
      of its coal-fired plants (40% are typically idle), buying coal from 
      Indonesia and Australia, and preparing for other disruptions by improving 
      its recycling technology for rare-earth minerals and sourcing helium, 
      needed in chipmaking, outside Qatar. 

What's Next: Taiwan's chip-oriented companies can navigate the disruptions for a short while -- even possibly through summer -- in part by paying more for what they need from other suppliers, passing that extra cost to customers, and possibly delaying chip production for goods such as smartphones and computers. For more read here.

-- Reshma Kapadia

The SpaceX IPO Is Coming. Several Funds Are Already In Position.

With expectations rising for Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch an initial public offering, filing paperwork for a deal perhaps as early as this week, attention has turned to a number of funds that already own pre-IPO shares in the commercial space company, or have figured out a way to gain exposure.

   -- One little-known holder of SpaceX stock is Blue Owl Technology Finance, a 
      depressed business development company focused on high-yield technology 
      lending in the private credit market. It owned about 500,000 shares of 
      SpaceX that were valued at around $195 million at year-end. 
 
   -- The closed end Destiny Tech 100 has 16.2% of its fund invested in SpaceX 
      and another 3.5% in Musk's xAI, which recently merged with SpaceX. And 
      the Fundrise Growth Tech Fund, which recently began trading on the NYSE, 
      has a 5% stake in SpaceX. 
 
   -- Several other prominent funds own SpaceX, such as Cathie Wood's Ark 
      Venture, where it's the biggest holding at 18% of the fund, and the Baron 
      Partners Fund, Baron Focused Growth Fund, and Baron First Principles 
      exchange-traded fund. Fidelity, BlackRock, and Neuberger Berman own 
      pre-IPO shares of SpaceX, Morningstar says. 
 
   -- SpaceX is reportedly looking at a $1.75 trillion valuation. In December, 
      Musk confirmed the IPO plan, likely the largest ever, to kick-start the 
      rocket company's AI ambitions. The Information reported Tuesday that the 
      filing could come this week. 

What's Next: When SpaceX's IPO prospectus is finally public, investors will get a look at one of the most unique companies on the planet, responsible for essentially creating the modern space economy by driving down the cost of reaching space through its pioneering use of reusable rockets.

-- Paul R. La Monica, Andrew Bary, and Al Root

Charles Schwab Debuts Teen Trading Accounts

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March 26, 2026 06:54 ET (10:54 GMT)

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