Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-26
 

0138 GMT - Catapult Sports' bull at Ord Minnett isn't worried about the athletic-data provider's lower-than-expected full-year free cash flow. Analyst Amelia Hamer acknowledges that the US$5 million-US$6 million flagged by the company is well below the consensus forecast of US$10.2 million, but accepts its explanation that this is just a timing issue. She tells clients in a note that Catapult expects to receive a portion of previously expected second-half cash collections early in its next fiscal year. "We don't see cause for concern," she says. Separately, Catapult's annualized contract value guidance is definitely good news, she adds. It is about 6% ahead of prior consensus. Ord Minnett's buy rating and A$4.33 target price are under review. Shares are up almost 5.4% at A$3.74. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

0035 GMT - The disclosure by Kingsgate of a legal issue is likely to impact its shares more greatly than the size of the claim itself, says MA Financial analyst Paul Hissey. "We consider A$3 million to be immaterial" to Kingsgate, he says. Yet the announcement is "unfortunate" given the recent resolution of prior disputes with the government, "which we hoped would allow investors to consider a potential overhang as being 'resolved'," Hissey says. MA has a hold rating and A$6.85 target on Kingsgate. The stock is down 4.6% at A$4.41. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

2350 GMT - It's natural for the market to be skeptical about the next phase of Amplitude Energy's East Coast Supply Project, says Canaccord Genuity. Amplitude yesterday said the natural-gas discovery by the Isabella-1 well couldn't be developed commercially. Next on its drill list: the Juliet and Nestor targets. Amplitude says both have simpler geology. Still, analyst James Bullen notes that Nestor needs approval from Amplitude's JV partner. "We have adjusted for the result at Isabella and increased our risking for the ECSP and associated exploration," Canaccord says. "We retain our buy recommendation, noting that the core value at the Orbost Gas Processing Plant remains, but lower our sum-of-the-parts based price target to A$3.00 (from A$3.65)." Amplitude is up 0.9% at A$1.705, but still near two-year lows. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2304 GMT - Macquarie should make a A$700 million gain and free up capital for higher-returning investments from its sale of its smart-meter portfolio, Morgan Stanley analysts say. The Australian asset manager is divesting a portfolio of 7 million smart meters. The MS analysts estimate that Macquarie should make a A$400 million gain once tax and profit-share arrangements are accounted for. They tell clients in a note that, while Macquarie will forgo A$100 million in fiscal 2027 lease income, freed up capital can be deployed into other divisions or capital management. MS has an "equal-weight" rating and A$223.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.1%, at A$207.24. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2257 GMT -- Ramsay Health Care's bull at Macquarie sees an immediate pathway for it to improve performance at its newly acquired Canberra hospital. A note from one of the investment bank's analysts flags that the National Capital Private Hospital has been operating below its potential. The analyst outlines a belief that Ramsay's operating framework should provide a way to immediately lift throughput and efficiency without material incremental capital expenditure. The analyst sees the asset delivering a steady build in revenue and earnings as volumes and workflows improve, supported by procurement and labor benefits. Macquarie lowers its target price 3.8% to A$43.40 and keeps an outperform rating on the stock, which is at A$40.21 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2231 GMT -- SGH is a clear beneficiary of Australia's unfolding capital-expenditure boom, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank initiates coverage of the stock with an overweight rating and A$50.00 target. SGH has "market-leading platforms" for mining equipment, equipment hire and construction materials, MS says. "These businesses are tightly aligned with our six structural themes on capex -- housing, defense, energy transition, mining, data centers/digital infrastructure, and the Brisbane 2032 Olympics," says the bank. SGH should be able to translate stable market share into margin expansion and cash flow growth, it says. SGH ended Wednesday at A$41.67. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

2201 GMT - Jefferies trims its price target on Sonic Healthcare by 12% to A$22.55/share as it assesses the potential impact of private health insurance reform in Germany. It thinks the reform could begin at the start of FY 2028. "Based on potential pricing, the average decline of a representative basket of common lab tests would be circa 42%," analyst David Stanton says. That said, within that basket, the more common blood tests are proposed to decline less. If the average fall in reimbursements is 20% under the new clinical lab fee schedule and it begins in FY 2028, then Sonic's Ebitda would drop by some 11% unless it is able to implement measures to offset this, Jefferies estimates. Sonic ended Wednesday at A$20.15. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2158 GMT - Euroz Hartleys thinks Amplitude Energy was sold off too sharply after it said the natural-gas discovery by the Isabella-1 well couldn't be developed commercially. Amplitude's share price plunged to A$1.69, its lowest level in around two years, following the results of a flow test that signaled a small pool of natural gas. Still, analyst Declan Bonnick is confident about the success of the remainder of Amplitude's East Coast Supply Project. Even if the ECSP program continues without success, Euroz Hartleys assesses Amplitude's valuation at A$2.20/share. "In other words, meaning that at the current share price, there is no value for growth and the existing base business is being discounted by 25%," Euroz Hartleys says. It retains a buy call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 26, 2026 00:01 ET (04:01 GMT)

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