By Doug Busch
The prospect of a SpaceX IPO has become a key focal point for markets, and any delay tied to deteriorating conditions could carry broader implications.
For one thing, a delay could risk reinforcing concerns about investor appetite for new issues. In addition, the sheer scale of the potential offering could draw capital away from smaller deals, leaving the broader IPO pipeline more vulnerable.
That backdrop makes it worth examining how recently listed companies have performed, including signals from the Renaissance IPO ETF, for clues on the market's capacity to absorb new supply.
The Renaissance IPO ETF tracks a basket of the largest and most liquid recent listings, updating holdings each quarter during rebalancing.
While trading in the fund can be relatively thin, it still provides a useful gauge of conditions for recently public companies. Notice how it performed poorly on the ratio chart against the international new issue ETF. On its daily chart, it broke below a bearish descending triangle pivot below $41.50 last Friday. The last seven sessions have all closed on lows for the daily range, implying professional selling.
The fund is now 27% off its most recent 52 week high after a doji candle printed on Sept. 18. Four of its top five holdings, all from the fragile technology sector, including CoreWeave, Arm Holdings, Reddit, and Astera Labs, dragged down performance.
The Renaissance IPO ETF was trading around $40.50 Tuesday.
Investors may want to monitor a couple of new issues showing relative strength in a softer market, with an eye toward acting when broader conditions turn more constructive.
BKV, a name that went public in the natural gas arena in late 2024, has gained 41% over the last one year, but may present a future opportunity as it's now 11% off its most recent 52-week high set on March 2. On its ratio chart against the very powerful State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF it has made a series of higher lows dating back to October 2024.
Looking at the daily chart back to the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, notice the cup base that took shape. Important lows in the pattern were recorded with bullish candlesticks with a long legged spinning top candle at the Liberation Day lows last April, followed by back-to-back spinning tops last August, and a doji in late October.
After the doji a three week win streak at the beginning of November gained a combined 33%. The stock broke above the cup base pivot of $26.88 the second week of November jumping 10% on double the average weekly volume, until a bearish hanging man candle formed five weeks ago. Buy this on a pullback at $27.50. The stock can reach $39 by year end, a 42% gain from current prices. Use a stop of $24.
BKV was trading around $29.25 Tuesday.
Andersen Group, a financial advisory services firm, started trading last December and has already carved out a proper base, impressive since it can take months to do so. Incredibly it recorded a seven week losing streak to start 2026 but rebounded with a robust 22% gain two weeks ago.
The daily chart shows a strong first two days of trading, rising by 35%. Then a bearish dark cloud cover on Dec. 19 started a cup with handle base. The stock declined by 34% until a bullish morning star completed on Feb. 13. It then had a forceful run from 18 to 25 where the handle started.
In early March, there was a light volume pullback to the newly formed 50-day simple moving average, which created the handle. On March 18, the stock broke out above the $25.31 pivot, jumping 13.6% on double the average daily volume. Round number theory then came into play at $30 with a bearish shooting star candle on March 19. Enter at $25 on a breakout retest. The stock could travel toward $35 by year end, a 40% gain from current prices. Use a stop of $22.50.
Andersen Group was trading around $26.50 Tuesday.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2026 11:37 ET (15:37 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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