The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0936 ET - Despite weakness in the labor market, it appears the Canadian economy was chugging along, posting modest growth ahead of the start of the war in Iran, says Tiago Figueiredo, an economist at Desjardins Group. GDP in Canada rose 0.1% in January from the previous month, Statistics Canada says, and that was above market expectations. The data agency adds that early estimates point to a 0.2% GDP jump in February. The rise in oil prices should support GDP in aggregate although with varying degrees of differences among regions, Figueiredo says. Traders, however, aren't reacting to the above-expectations GDP data due to events in the Middle East, he adds. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
0928 ET - Reports that bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto Inc. sold $20 million worth of bitcoin at a 40% loss is injecting fresh fear into the cryptocurrency market, with analysts warning that it may be the beginning of a wave of firms offloading their bitcoin holdings. "Cracks are beginning to show in the digital asset treasury market," says Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau in a note. "There is real contagion risk here." Puckrin speculates that the sentiment around bitcoin may push the coin down to below $60,000 in the coming weeks. Bitcoin has shed nearly 24% in the past 3 months, according to data from FactSet. It is up 0.4% to $66,835 this morning. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0922 ET - Amundi is constructive on emerging-market debt due to ongoing robust economic growth, although selective given high geopolitical risks, its analysts say in a note. The asset manager favors the bonds of countries with high real yields, such as Brazil and South Africa. It is "less positive" on local-currency emerging-market debt due to geopolitical risks, however. "Overall, we believe EM growth will remain robust and see no secular reason for this to change," the analysts say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0911 ET - Canada's economy was on slightly firmer footing than anticipated to kick off 2026. GDP rose a modest 0.1% on-month in January, firmer than the flat performance economists expected, as a rebound in mining and oil and gas extraction alongside growth in construction helped offset a retreat in manufacturing. Statistics Canada's flash estimate indicates GDP expanded 0.2% in February, matching the pace in December as manufacturing recovered and mining increased. The outlook, however, is more clouded than ever as the conflict in the Middle East and surge in oil prices adds to trade uncertainty that has held back investment in Canada. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0908 ET - Canadian exports of crude oil hit a record high to start the year, as the country's primary energy production increased to the highest on records dating to 2020. Primary energy output rose 3.5% in January to 2.2 million gigajoules, Statistics Canada data shows. Canadian production of marketable natural gas climbed 6.3% on-year, notching a third consecutive record high as domestic consumption and exports grew. Natural gas exports jumped 11% to a new record. Crude oil output was up 1.4% on-year but was below December's record high. Still, crude exports climbed 5.8% to a record 21.8 million cubic meters, driven by shipments other than the U.S. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0900 ET - Some of the bond market's reactions to the impact of high energy prices "seems excessive" as investors overestimate inflation risks and underestimate growth risks, Amundi analysts say in a note. They refer to the sharp rise in short-dated government-bond yields globally, as well as the surge in U.S. and European breakeven curves due to a jump in expectations for inflation and interest rates. "We think the length of time that energy prices remain high will determine the second-round inflationary effects," they say. Meanwhile, markets are currently not too concerned about the growth impact of the Middle East war. "Persistently high energy prices would weigh on consumption and growth," Amundi says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0849 ET - The cost of insuring Middle Nations' sovereign debt against default stays elevated as investors stay cautious given the Middle East war. A quick resolution appears harder to achieve and there is a risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed even when the fighting ends, Peel Hunt's Kallum Pickering says in a note. Bahrain's 5-year credit default swap spreads trade at 314 basis points, 100bps higher than they were prior to the start of the Middle East war a month ago, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. Qatar's 5-year CDS spreads are up 23bps since the start of the war, last at 55bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0847 ET - Polish inflation was weaker than expected in March, ING's Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak say in a note. Consumer-price growth rose to 3.0% on-year, from 2.1% in February, hitting the highest level since mid-2025. But this was almost entirely driven by fuel prices, the analysts say. "Apart from fuel, there were no signs of upward pressure on prices in other elements of the CPI basket," they say. The country's central bank will watch for signs of second-round effects in the coming months. Assuming no further jumps in oil prices, this could prove to be this year's inflation peak, the analysts say. "Our baseline scenario assumes flat National Bank of Poland policy rates by year-end." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0843 ET - Amundi has turned slightly positive on fixed-income duration, its analysts say in a note. Duration refers to exposure to bonds sensitive to changes in interest rates, which are often longer-dated bonds. Amundi doesn't currently expect central banks to raise rates, rather to pause while awaiting clarity on the Middle East crisis and energy supply disruptions. It also upgraded its view on duration after the sharp rise in German bond yields. Amundi is more positive mainly on European bonds, where it looks for additional opportunities and favors peripheral eurozone debt. It is "less cautious" on U.S. Treasurys, especially the short and long ends, and remains "very active." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0811 ET - Stablecoin velocity, the frequency with which these cryptocurrencies turn over, has jumped in recent months after being broadly stable, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick says in a note. This could reduce demand, he says. "Our prior assumption that stablecoin velocity would remain stable meant that as use of stablecoins increased (resulting in more transactions), more stablecoins would also be needed." If velocity increases, this could reduce the need for the total number of stablecoins required, he says. Nevertheless, Standard Chartered continues to expect stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028. The increase in velocity appears to reflect new use cases for stablecoins rather than all uses, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0805 ET - Bitcoin is struggling to recover as U.S. real inflation-adjusted yields rise and the computational power used in bitcoin mining, or hashrate, falls, Marex crypto analysts say. "When real rates push higher, bitcoin tends to lose marginal buyers and rallies become shorter lived," they say in a note. Bitcoin's hashrate fell during the first quarter, the first decline in six years, as miners shifted capital to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Meanwhile, Strategy has paused bitcoin purchases, breaking a pattern the market had become comfortable with, the analysts say. Bitcoin trades steady at $66,625 after earlier modest gains driven by a WSJ report that President Trump is willing to end U.S. attacks against Iran, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0745 ET - The European Central Bank is likely to hike interest rates in the coming months, Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macroeconomics says in a note. Headline inflation in the eurozone jumped to 2.5% in March. This is set to rise further in the near term, settling in a 2.5% to 3.0% range this year and next, Vistesen says. Pantheon expects the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points in June and July. Still, rate cuts will remain on the table as the economy struggles. "We expect the bank to attempt to thread the needle by taking the policy rate towards the upper end of neutral, at 2.5%, in the hope that this strikes a balance between upside risks to inflation and the risk of tipping the economy into recession." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2026 09:37 ET (13:37 GMT)
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