This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron's.
Copper: Pessimism Is Extreme
Commodities | Focus NDR Ned Davis Research April 2: Copper dropped 9.5% in March, snapping a seven-month winning streak and marking its largest monthly decline since June 2022. This pullback follows a strong breakout in Q3 last year and a 7% gain in January that capped copper's best three-month run since April 2021. Sentiment had been elevated through December and January as "metal mania" swept the metals complex.
March's nearly 10% decline pushed sentiment to extreme pessimism. With copper's long-term uptrend intact and sentiment turning up from extreme pessimism, copper becomes a conditional confirmation test for the reopening theme.
If copper holds its uptrend, especially alongside an easing Hormuz Stress Index, it would likely signal economic stabilization and an improving growth backdrop. A downside break could suggest that growth expectations are deteriorating, echoing the decline during the 2022 cyclical equity bear.
Matt Bauer
Haircut for Q1 GDP
US Economics Weekly Update Goldman Sachs April 2: We lowered our first-quarter GDP growth tracking estimate to 2.9%.
We are tracking Q1 private domestic final sales growth, which excludes the rebound effect from the end of last fall's government shutdown, at 2.1%.
The trade deficit widened by $10.5 billion in February, excluding imports and exports of gold that aren't counted in GDP.
Core retail sales rose 0.5% in nominal terms in February. We estimate that real retail sales fell at a 1.3% three-month annualized rate through February. Timely measures of consumer sentiment have pulled back sharply since the start of the Iran war.
David Mericle
Bond Market Playbook
UBS House View - US Daily UBS March 31: Recent moves in Treasuries show how quickly markets can shift from fearing inflation to worrying about a growth hit. We think markets have priced in too much tightening from top central banks in recent weeks. The rise in benchmark government bond yields [in U.S. dollars, euros, and pound sterling] has improved starting income, while current market pricing still looks too hawkish relative to our view that the Fed remains on a medium-term easing path.
Against this backdrop, we see an attractive risk-reward profile for short-duration high-quality bonds. In a risk scenario where growth concerns intensify and financial conditions tighten further, higher-quality and longer-duration bonds should be better placed to perform.
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and Team
Robust Earnings Outlook
Weekly Market Commentary LPL Financial March 30: Companies with business models that are sensitive to oil and rates will likely strike a cautious tone in their earnings outlooks even after reporting solid first-quarter results. Nonetheless, bolstered by our energy independence, look for corporate America to impress in the first quarter.
The second quarter may be more difficult. Results carry more uncertainty as disruptions to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could continue well into the current quarter (although our base case calls for a resolution in April). Assuming a resolution is reached sometime within the next few weeks, the economic impact would be limited. That leaves solid 2.5%-plus growth in gross domestic product, the OBBBA [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] stimulus, and massive AI investments as big earnings drivers. Rising consensus estimates for this year and next also point to a robust earnings outlook.
Bottom line, our high-single-digit S&P 500 earnings growth forecast for 2026, at $290 per share, is likely too low. We will strongly consider raising that forecast after earnings season is over and once there is greater clarity surrounding the resolution of the Mideast conflict. Our 10% S&P 500 earnings growth forecast for 2027, to $320 per share, looks reasonable given our macro forecasts.
Jeffrey Buchbinder. Alan Turnquist
A Walmart Stock Warning?
Walmart Worries Paulsen Perspectives paulsenperspectives@substack.com March 30: Occasionally, I update an indicator I call the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS). Recessions are typically felt first, and ultimately more emphatically, by lower-income individuals than the wealthier parts of the economy. Walmart specifically caters to the lower income distribution and thereby could provide an early read on a burgeoning recession. The WRS compares Walmart's stock price performance to a group of stocks whose businesses are tied to the wealthiest parts of the economy -- the S&P Global Luxury Index. As economic activity slows and recession risk builds, retailing purchasing patterns tend to gravitate toward discounters like Walmart and away from luxury retailers. Consequently, a rise in the WRS could warn of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown.
I haven't published the WRS for some time and "Walmart Worries" just keep multiplying. Probably due primarily to the Iranian conflict (although the WRS was rising even before the conflict began earlier this year), the WRS has surged from about 0.024 at the end of last year to about .0305. It is currently close to the highest level ever recorded, during the financial crisis of 2008-09. The WRS is increasingly advising caution about the U.S. economy since retail purchasing is trending toward discounters, suggesting pressures may be building among lower- and middle-income consumers.
My guess is the economy avoids a recession this year, but I am becoming more convinced that a significant U.S. economic slowdown is unfolding that will ultimately require additional economic policy accommodation and lower interest rates to arrest.
Jim Paulsen
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April 03, 2026 17:57 ET (21:57 GMT)
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