Fed Could Cut Rates Twice This Year To Support Labor Market -- Market Talk

Dow Jones04-04 00:43

1243 ET - The topline March payroll number greatly overstates the prewar strength of the job market, according to Oxford Economics, saying that both labor force and household employment declined. Lead US Economist Nancy Vanden Houten forecasts job growth to slow as the war in Iran begins to take a toll on real activity. "The war's impact on inflation is immediate, but the negative spillover effects to consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will materialize more fully in the next months," she says in a note. Vanden Houten adds that Oxford's baseline forecast is still for the Fed to look past the one-time shock from higher oil prices and lower rates twice this year to guard against any future weakening in the labor market. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 03, 2026 12:43 ET (16:43 GMT)

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Lead US Economist Nancy Vanden Houten forecasts job growth to slow as the war in Iran begins to take a toll on real activity. \"The war's impact on inflation is immediate, but the negative spillover effects to consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will materialize more fully in the next months,\" she says in a note. Vanden Houten adds that Oxford's baseline forecast is still for the Fed to look past the one-time shock from higher oil prices and lower rates twice this year to guard against any future weakening in the labor market. 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