Is It Too Late To Consider CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (SEHK:1093) After Its 81% One-Year Rally?

Simply Wall St.04-03

If you are wondering whether CSPC Pharmaceutical Group at HK$9.71 is still reasonably priced after a strong run, the starting point is to understand how its current share price lines up with different...

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The stock has returned 19.0% over the past 7 days, 5.3% over the last month, 14.5% year to date and 80.6% over the past year, which naturally raises questions about how much potential or risk is now priced in. Recent coverage has focused on how investors are reassessing large Hong Kong listed healthcare names, with attention on balance sheet strength, product pipelines and regulatory developments in China. For CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, this context helps explain why sentiment has shifted and why the share price moves are attracting more interest. The company currently has a valuation score of 4 out of 6. The next step is to look at how traditional metrics like P/E, cash flow based models and asset based checks stack up, then finish with a broader way to think about value that goes beyond any single model.  CSPC Pharmaceutical Group delivered 80.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Pharmaceuticals industry. AdvertisementApproach 1: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future, then discounts those cash flows back to today to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value per share. For CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections in CN¥. The latest twelve month free cash flow stands at CN¥4,003.64m. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for several years, and from 2026 to 2035 the projections, along with additional extrapolations by Simply Wall St, point to annual free cash flows in the range of roughly CN¥5.0b to a little over CN¥10.0b, with 2030 specifically projected at CN¥8,566.81m. When those projected cash flows are discounted back, the model indicates an estimated intrinsic value of HK$19.54 per share. Compared with the current share price of HK$9.71, this implies a 50.3% discount, which classifies the shares as undervalued on this DCF view. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is undervalued by 50.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 248 more high quality undervalued stocks. 1093 Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group. Approach 2: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Price vs Earnings For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful yardstick because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that business is currently generating. It helps you see how many years of current earnings the market is effectively paying for. What counts as a \"normal\" P/E is influenced by how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are perceived to be. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while lower growth or higher uncertainty usually point to a lower one. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group currently trades on a P/E of 25.17x. This sits above the Pharmaceuticals industry average of 15.40x and slightly below the peer group average of 27.32x. Simply Wall St also provides a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group of 28.63x, which reflects factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and key risks. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for company specific characteristics instead of assuming all firms deserve the same multiple. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 28.63x with the current P/E of 25.17x indicates that the shares appear undervalued on this earnings based view. Result: UNDERVALUED SEHK:1093 P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 96 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives are a way for you to spell out the story behind your numbers, including what you think CSPC Pharmaceutical Group might earn in future, how its margins could look and what that implies for a fair value per share. A Narrative links three things together: the company story you believe, the financial forecast that follows from that story and the fair value that drops out of those forecasts. On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and are designed to be easy to use so you can quickly compare your view on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with how other investors are thinking. Once you or other investors set a Fair Value, Narratives help you decide whether CSPC Pharmaceutical Group looks attractive or stretched by comparing that Fair Value with the current share price and updating the numbers automatically when new earnings releases, news or other data come through. For example, one CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Narrative might assume a relatively high fair value based on strong long term product demand, while another might sit at the low end because the author is more cautious about regulation and pricing pressure. Do you think there's more to the story for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! SEHK:1093 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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