Polymarket traders now price 65% odds WTI hits $120 in 2026

cryptonews04-03

Polymarket traders now put a 65% chance on WTI crude hitting $120 at some point in 2026, as Middle East tensions and supply fears drive a rapid repricing of oil risk. Summary The Polymarket ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2624853076?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-04-03 00:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2624853076","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Polymarket traders now price 65% odds WTI hits $120 in 2026","media":"cryptonews","content":"<div>\n<p>Polymarket traders now put a 65% chance on WTI crude hitting $120 at some point in 2026, as Middle East tensions and supply fears drive a rapid repricing of oil risk.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nThe Polymarket ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://crypto.news/polymarket-traders-now-price-65-odds-wti-hits-120-in-2026/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"crypto_news_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Polymarket traders now price 65% odds WTI hits $120 in 2026</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPolymarket traders now price 65% odds WTI hits $120 in 2026\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-03 00:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://crypto.news/polymarket-traders-now-price-65-odds-wti-hits-120-in-2026/><strong>cryptonews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Polymarket traders now put a 65% chance on WTI crude hitting $120 at some point in 2026, as Middle East tensions and supply fears drive a rapid repricing of oil risk.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nThe Polymarket ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://crypto.news/polymarket-traders-now-price-65-odds-wti-hits-120-in-2026/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1236620750.USD","symbol_name":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://crypto.news/polymarket-traders-now-price-65-odds-wti-hits-120-in-2026/","article_id":"2624853076","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"crypto_news_highlight","url":"https://crypto.news/polymarket-traders-now-price-65-odds-wti-hits-120-in-2026/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624853076","pubTimestamp":1775147400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"crypto_news_highlight","name":"Crypto News"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Polymarket traders now put a 65% chance on WTI crude hitting $120 at some point in 2026, as Middle East tensions and supply fears drive a rapid repricing of oil risk.The Polymarket market on WTI crude reaching $120 in 2026 has seen its implied probability jump to 65%, up 25 percentage points over 24 hour.The contract resolves “yes” if any one-minute candle high of the active WTI futures month in 2026 trades at or above $120; a prior market used CME’s year-end settlement price instead.ChainCatcher reports that Polymarket will keep monitoring flows in the oil markets and updating pricing as conditions change.How the new contract differs from prior oil markets. ChainCatcher reported that Polymarket plans to continue monitoring flows and adjusting odds as new information on supply, geopolitics,","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"crypto.news","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1236620750.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1150488135.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi Income Builder AHS-MD SGD-H","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1236620834.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","BK4018":"居家用品","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1941712348.USD":"ALLIANZ PET AND ANIMAL WELLBEING \"AT\" (USD) ACC","OIH":"石油服务ETF","LU0266013472.USD":"AXA WF - Framlington Longevity Economy A Cap USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","WTI":"W&T海底钻探","OILU":"MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU1599440770.SGD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","LU1941712264.USD":"ALLIANZ PET AND ANIMAL WELLBEING \"A\" (USD) INC","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","LU0985320562.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2463526074.USD":"NORDEA 1 - GLOBAL CLIMATE ENGAGEMENT \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","LU1150488218.USD":"First Eagle Amundi Income Builder AU2-MD USD","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BK4588":"碎股","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","LU1675838814.USD":"AB SICAV I - EMERGING MARKETS LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","CL":"高露洁"},"translate_title":"Polymarket交易商目前定价WTI 2026年触及120美元的可能性为65%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f2669b91d6709e264014d91191082bf","symbols_score_info":{"DUG":0.78,"UCO":0.6,"OILT":0.78,"MCLmain":1.5,"SCO":0.6,"USO":0.89,"WTI":1.5,"XLE":0.78,"VDE":0.78,"OILU":0.78,"XOP":0.78,"CL":1,"OIH":0.78,"DBO":0.78,"ERX":0.78},"content_text":"Polymarket traders now put a 65% chance on WTI crude hitting $120 at some point in 2026, as Middle East tensions and supply fears drive a rapid repricing of oil risk.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nThe Polymarket market on WTI crude reaching $120 in 2026 has seen its implied probability jump to 65%, up 25 percentage points over 24 hour.\nThe contract resolves “yes” if any one-minute candle high of the active WTI futures month in 2026 trades at or above $120; a prior market used CME’s year-end settlement price instead.\nChainCatcher reports that Polymarket will keep monitoring flows in the oil markets and updating pricing as conditions change.\n\n\n\nPrediction platform Polymarket is currently assigning a 65% chance that WTI crude oil futures will trade at $120 per barrel at some point in 2026, with the market’s probability having climbed 25 percentage points in the past 24 hours and 10 points in the last hour. That repricing comes against a backdrop of WTI futures trading around $106 per barrel after a more than 6% daily move, as escalating Middle East tensions and fears of supply disruption outweigh the impact of scheduled OPEC+ production increases.\nThe specific market — “What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?” — resolves on an intraday high rather than a closing level, using one-minute candles for the active month WTI futures contract. Under the rules, the market will resolve to “yes” if, at any point during the 2026 period, any one-minute candle for the active WTI month prints a high at or above $120; otherwise, it resolves “no,” with fallback to official daily highs from CME if oracle data is unavailable.\nHow the new contract differs from prior oil markets\nPolymarket’s earlier WTI contracts, including a “Will Crude Oil (CL) hit by end of March?” market, were tied to the official settlement price of the near-month futures on the last trading day of the period. In those structures, a “yes” outcome required the CME settlement price to be at or above the strike level on expiry, a stricter condition than a single intraday spike.\nBy contrast, the new $120 market pays out if WTI touches the threshold at any moment in the year, making it more sensitive to short-lived volatility and headline-driven spikes. That shift aligns the oil market with other Polymarket structures that key off one-minute candles, reflecting the platform’s move toward higher-frequency oracle data for commodities and macro assets.\nOil risk repriced across prediction markets\nThe jump to a 65% implied probability that WTI will hit $120 mirrors a broader repricing of oil risk across prediction venues and derivatives. Analysis of crude oil markets shows that traders now see elevated odds of WTI breaking into triple digits and sustaining high volatility, with probabilities for $95 and $100 per barrel also rising alongside volume and open interest at higher strikes.\nChainCatcher reported that Polymarket plans to continue monitoring flows and adjusting odds as new information on supply, geopolitics, and demand comes in, underscoring how quickly real‑money prediction markets can react to macro shocks. For macro traders, the contract offers a clean way to express views on whether war risk and supply constraints will push WTI from today’s ~$106 area to $120 or beyond before 2026 is over.\n\n\n\n\n\n                Read more:\n            \n\n                Drift Protocol’s $285m hack exposes social engineering threat to Solana DeFi","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.39.0","shortVersion":"4.39.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2624853076","isCrawlerRequest":true}