Gold's 17% Slide Could Be The Best Buying Opportunity Of 2026 – UBS Says $6,200 Is Next

Benzinga_recent_news04-03

The ongoing gold selloff is the paradox that the market cannot stop arguing about. The metal hit a record $5,602 per ounce on Jan. 29, then shed more than $1,100 in the span of sixty days — a 17% ...

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UBS sees $6,200 by mid-2026. Here's what the selloff means for the bullion.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","BK4567":"ESG概念","JNUG":"金矿指数二倍做多ETF","BTGD":"STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","GLDM":"SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","DGP":"二倍做多黄金ETN(PowerShares)","IAUI":"NEOS Gold High Income ETF","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","GDXD":"MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN","USG":"USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR","IAUM":"ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","BBY":"百思买","CEF":"Sprott Physical Gold & Silver Trust","OUNZ":"VanEck Merk黄金股票基金","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","GDXU":"MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN","GLTR":"abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF","JDST":"金矿指数二倍做空ETF","BK4588":"碎股","GDXY":"YieldMax Gold Miners Option Income Strategy ETF","SGOL":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","PHYS":"Sprott Physical Gold Trust","GLL":"2倍做空黄金ETF-ProShares","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"translate_title":"黄金下跌17%可能是2026年最佳买入机会——瑞银称下一个是6,200美元","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GDXU":0.9,"BBY":1.5,"DZZ":0.9,"IAUI":0.9,"OUNZ":0.9,"GLDM":0.9,"IAUM":0.9,"SGOL":0.9,"DGP":0.9,"JDST":0.9,"JNUG":0.9,"XME":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLL":0.9,"GLTR":0.9,"CEF":0.9,"BTGD":0.9,"USG":0.9,"GDXD":0.9,"AAAU":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDXJ":0.9,"GDXY":0.9,"UGL":0.9,"PHYS":0.9,"IAU":0.9},"content_text":"The ongoing gold selloff is the paradox that the market cannot stop arguing about. \nThe metal hit a record $5,602 per ounce on Jan. 29, then shed more than $1,100 in the span of sixty days — a 17% plunge that unfolded even as an active war raged in the Middle East. \nWith spot gold now trading near $4,629, UBS Global Wealth Management stated this week that “the decline in gold is likely to be relatively short-lived.”\nThe fall began with the Fed, not Iran. When the U.S.-Iran war began in late February and Brent crude subsequently surged past $112 per barrel, gold initially held firm. \nThe problem was what came next: $100-plus oil made inflation stickier, and the Federal Open Market Committee responded at its March 17–18 meeting by slashing its projected rate cuts for 2026 from three to just one. \nReal 10-year Treasury yields climbed toward 2.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index pushed to its highest level since late 2022.\nGold and a surging dollar do not coexist well. A stronger greenback makes dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers holding euros, yen or yuan — exactly the international buyers who had powered the rally. \nThe safe-haven paradox that bewildered traders was, in fact, basic macro: when dollar strength dominates a crisis, cash and short-duration Treasuries absorb the safe-haven bid, not gold.\nThe Swiss bank’s optimism on gold rests on three structural forces that the selloff hasn’t dislodged.\nFirst, Fed easing. \nUBS projects two 25-basis-point rate cuts by September 2026. Lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold — effectively making a non-yielding asset more attractive relative to Treasuries. \nThe bank notes that a firmer dollar and hawkish Fed represent the main downside risk, which it prices in its bear case at $4,600 — the current territory gold is approaching.\nSecond, central bank accumulation. \nUBS expects central banks globally to purchase approximately 950 metric tons of gold in 2026, in line with 2025 levels. Poland’s recent decision to raise its gold reserve target from 550 to 700 metric tons signals a broader institutional shift. \nChina’s central bank extended gold purchases for 15 consecutive months through January 2026.\nThird, record investment demand. \nGlobal gold ETF holdings reached 4,171 tonnes in February 2026 — an all-time high — even as spot prices corrected. UBS analysts noted that hedge funds have modestly boosted net positioning in gold and that ETF investors, while trimming slightly earlier, have shown greater stability of late.\nWorld Gold Council data shows that total 2025 gold demand exceeded 5,000 metric tonnes for the first time in history.\nThe upside case of $7,200 per ounce requires a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions. The downside case of $4,600 assumes the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive monetary policy stance. \nAt $4,630 today, gold is trading at the edge of that bear scenario — suggesting either the market has already priced in the worst Fed outcome, or the next catalyst breaks the range decisively.\nPhoto: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.40.0","shortVersion":"4.40.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2624966684","isCrawlerRequest":true}