This Wall Street Research Firm Sent Its Analyst Into Strait Of Hormuz By Speedboat— And What He Found Challenges Oil Market Assumptions

Benzinga04-07

While the world’s top oil traders parsed satellite images and Pentagon briefings for clues about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, a small Manhattan research firm came up with the idea to just go ...

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What he found paints a bleak picture for crude.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","DBE":"能源商品ETF-PowerShares","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","DRIP":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","DIG":"二倍做多美国油气指数","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas"},"translate_title":"这家华尔街研究公司派分析师乘快艇进入霍尔木兹海峡——他的发现挑战了石油市场的假设","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DUG":0.67,"DBE":0.67,"USE":0.67,"GUSH":0.67,"DRIP":0.67,"PXJ":0.67,"XOP":0.67,"IEO":0.67,"VDE":0.78,"IXC":0.67,"ERX":0.78,"DIG":0.67,"DBC":0.67},"content_text":"While the world’s top oil traders parsed satellite images and Pentagon briefings for clues about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, a small Manhattan research firm came up with the idea to just go there on a speedboat.\nAbout 20% of the world’s oil and 25% of its liquefied natural gas pass through the 54-mile passage between Iran and Oman.\n“Nobody — literally nobody, not the analysts, not the correspondents, not the retired generals doing hits on cable news” knew what was actually happening, Citrini wrote. Everyone, it said, was working from “the same stale satellite imagery and the same unnamed Pentagon sources.”\nThe analyst, whom the firm calls only “Analyst #3” to avoid identification, crossed into Oman’s Musandam Peninsula — the rocky finger of land that juts into the strait from the south. \nAgainst the advice of Omani border officials and two Coast Guard officers holding assault rifles, #3 hired a speedboat with no GPS, captained by a man he had met three hours earlier at a port inlet by pulling out a wad of cash, and headed into open water. He rode to within eighteen miles of the Iranian coast while Shahed drones flew overhead and Revolutionary Guard patrol boats ran patterns in the distance.\nHe was eventually intercepted, detained, and had his phone confiscated by Coast Guard authorities before making it back to New York for what the firm described as an “eight-hour debrief.”\nWhat the analyst found challenges the narrative driving oil markets. Ships are still moving — at roughly 15 vessels per day, with volume picking up in the days before publication, according to Citrini’s report.\nThe firm argues that the standard AIS ship-tracking system, which broadcasts a vessel’s location, speed, and identity, is badly undercounting actual traffic. “Tankers passing through four or five a day, completely dark on AIS,” the report said. “The volume, they said, is higher than what the data suggests, and it’s been accelerating in the past couple days through the Qeshm channel.”\nIran’s Revolutionary Guard, the report says, is selectively permitting vessels to transit after securing prior approval, creating what Citrini described as “a functional checkpoint” at the world’s most important oil artery.\n“This should drive home that what we’ve described as our view of the conflict is nuanced,” the firm wrote. “It doesn’t fit neatly into ‘strait open, crude down’ or ‘strait closed, crude parabolic.'”\nCitrini’s investment conclusion is that the disruption is real but slow-burning — not a binary blow-up. “We think the disruption is longer and the new normal involves a permanent risk premium,” the firm wrote, adding that it expects traffic to recover to as much as 50% of pre-conflict levels within four to six weeks.\nThat view underpins a preference for longer-dated crude exposure. The firm favors December 2026 WTI contracts over front-month — a bet that the damage embeds itself into oil prices over time rather than resolving quickly.\nTo be sure, the findings are based on a single field trip and anecdotal accounts that are difficult to verify independently.\nImage via Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.40.0","shortVersion":"4.40.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2625593313","isCrawlerRequest":true}