EMEA Morning Briefing: Markets Cheer Trump's Cease-Fire

Dow Jones04-08

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Eurozone PPI and retail trade, Germany manufacturing orders; no major trading updates expected

Opening Call:

European stock futures were higher after Asia stocks rose. U.S. Treasurys fell, the dollar weakened. Gold rose and oil fell.

Equities:

European stock futures as markets breathed a sigh of relief on after U.S. President Trump announced a cease-fire with Iran, buoying stocks and sending oil lower on hopes that an end to the conflict is in sight.

The developments are clearly constructive, and markets can cheer the news that diplomacy has gained a foothold, Saxo Markets' Charu Chanana said.

"But the bigger test is whether this evolves into a durable agreement rather than just a fragile pause."

Forex:

Credible signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict could spur a resumption of a "shallow" U.S. dollar depreciation trend, said OCBC Group Research.

"Lower energy risks support non-U.S. economies and global risk assets," the strategists said.

"In a de-escalation, lower oil prices and a risk-on environment should favor" the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Swedish krona over oil-linked Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, as well as safe-havens Swiss franc and Japanese yen, the strategists noted.

"Our preferred expression is long AUD, supported by domestic economic tailwinds," they added.

Bonds:

Further escalation in the Middle East could push oil prices higher and accompanying inflation concerns would drive government bond yields further upward, said DZ Bank analysts Christian Lenk and Christian Reicherter.

Markets now look toward Friday's release of U.S. CPI data for March, which are expected to show increases in both the headline and core inflation.

Energy:

Lower oil prices are unambiguously positive, said Josh Gilbert at eToro, easing pressure on consumers, taking some heat out of inflation expectations, and removing one of the biggest headwinds that has challenged equities over the past weeks.

Oil slipped back below $100 a barrel, ICE data showed.

"Ultimately, it's important that investors don't get ahead of themselves, " Gilbert warned. "We've seen Trump set and extend deadlines multiple times before, and a two-week window is not a permanent resolution."

Metals:

Gold rallied after Trump posted on Truth Social that he would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, sparking a retreat in oil prices.

Recent increases in energy prices have fueled concerns of rising inflation and a more hawkish stance by central banks.

Gold, which doesn't generate any income, tends to thrive when rates are low.

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Base metals rose as markets are finding some temporary relief after President Trump agreed to a cease-fire subject to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Nanhua Futures said.

Meanwhile, aluminum is finding support as supply disruptions continues to bite despite the cease-fire, ANZ Research analysts added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Trump, Iran Agree to 2-Week Cease-Fire and Reopening Strait of Hormuz

Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Seyed Abbas Araghchi said on X Tuesday that the country's Supreme National Security Council agreed to cease attacks and allow "safe passage" of ships through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated by Iran's Armed Forces for two weeks.

Just minutes earlier, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran reopening of the strait.

Fed's Jefferson: Labor Market Could Be Stabilizing

After cooling gradually for much of the past year, the labor market may be showing signs of stabilizing, Federal Reserve governor Philip Jefferson said.

Speaking at a Detroit college Tuesday evening, Jefferson pointed to shifts in employment data that suggest the job market may no longer be weakening as it was in 2025. The number of job openings hasn't been declining in recent months, he noted, and the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers is steadier too.

The Day Trump's Iran Threat Gripped the World

At 8:06 a.m. Tuesday, President Trump issued the most dramatic ultimatum of his presidency: Unless Iran struck a deal in the next 12 hours, "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again."

Even for a president who has long relied on maximalist threats, the 85-word post was startling. It ricocheted from the Oval Office to foreign embassies and corporate suites, setting off a countdown to Trump's 8 p.m. deadline and a frantic global guessing game over what the world's most powerful man was prepared to do.

AI Giants Go on Charm Offensive to Avert Public Backlash

Artificial-intelligence companies appear to be organizing around a simple message in the face of rising public anxiety about the negative potential effects of their world-changing technology: We come in peace.

OpenAI this week published a populist wish list of policy proposals that zero in on worries like job replacement and wealth concentration, floating such ideas as a four-day workweek and an AI-invested public-wealth fund distributed to citizens.

Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

Expected Major Events for Wednesday

05:45/SWI: Mar Unemployment

06:00/GER: Feb Manufacturing orders

06:00/GER: Feb Manufacturing turnover

06:00/ROM: Feb Retail trade

06:00/UK: Mar Halifax House Price Index

06:00/UK: 1Q Halifax House Price Index: UK Regional Breakdown quarterly release

06:30/HUN: Feb Preliminary Industrial Production

06:30/HUN: Feb Retail Sales

06:30/HUN: Mar CPI

06:45/FRA: Feb Foreign trade

06:45/FRA: Feb Balance of payments

07:00/SVK: Feb Internal trade, incl Wholesale & Retail

08:30/UK: Mar S&P Global UK Construction PMI

09:00/EU: Feb PPI

09:00/EU: Feb Retail trade

09:00/LUX: Mar CPI

23:01/UK: Mar RICS Residential Market Survey

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 08, 2026 00:01 ET (04:01 GMT)

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