By Nate Wolf
Capital expenditure estimates at the world's largest technology companies keep rising, and that is good news for artificial-intelligence server makers Dell Technologies and Super Micro Computer.
Mizuho Securities reiterated an Outperform rating on Dell stock and lifted its price target to $215 from $180 in a research note Monday. The firm kept Super Micro at Neutral and lowered its target to $25 from $33, but that move has more to do with legal controversies swirling around the company than underlying demand.
Dell stock was flat at $174.47 in premarket trading, having climbed 39% this year. Super Micro rose 0.4% to $23.31. Shares are down 21% this year after the U.S. government charged a co-founder and two others with allegedly diverting servers to China in violation of export-control laws. Super Micro itself was not named as a defendant.
While Super Micro continues to be a leader in AI server technology, the federal indictments could shift some orders to Dell in the near term, said Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh. The firm lifted its estimates for Dell's AI server orders to $53 billion in fiscal 2027 and $68 billion in fiscal 2028, up from previous estimates of $50 billion and $61 billion, respectively.
Super Micro's longer-term outlook is less concerning, the firm said. Hyperscalers' eye-watering capex numbers are a boon for the entire industry, even if Super Micro may lose some market share.
"All key customers indicate continued willingness to stand up additional AI server clusters," Rakesh wrote.
Agentic AI workloads will drive greater demand for servers, Mizuho said. And the demand will come from both smaller cloud-service providers and enterprise and sovereign data centers -- not just hyperscalers. Mizuho expects AI server spending to grow to $862 billion by 2029, up from around $140 billion in 2024.
With its enormous sales and support staff, developed supply chain, and strong balance sheet, Dell stands to benefit the most. Mizuho sees its market share growing to 25% in 2029 from 19% in 2025 at the expense of Super Micro and Taiwanese manufacturers, such as Foxconn Technology and Quanta Computer.
Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 06, 2026 07:59 ET (11:59 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments