The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1134 ET - Digital credit markets will be the next growth engine for bitcoin prices, says Michael Saylor of Strategy. In an interview with analysts at Mizuho, Saylor says that he sees the next runup in bitcoin prices coming from "the formation of banking credit and digital credit on top of Bitcoin." While digital credit does exist in the form of lending from DeFi firms, institutional leverage hasn't made its way into using bitcoin as a vehicle for lending. Saylor says Strategy is interested in "stretching" BTC "from a nonyielding asset into a capital markets engine" that reinvests in itself. Bitcoin is up 2.7% to around $71,150. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1131 ET - Eurozone governments have more room to respond to the Middle East energy shock than they did following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, given improvements in public debt-to-GDP ratios, Oxford Economics economist Rory Fennessy says. Still, the fragility of some countries' budget positions, particularly in northern Europe, increases the possibility of difficult fiscal trade-offs, he says in a note. "Stronger fiscal support would mean upward pressure on public debt ratios in many eurozone countries, although this would come from lower starting points than in 2022 and should be manageable given that we still expect the shock to be temporary." With elections in France, Italy and Spain before the end of 2027, governments are more likely to go for temporary fiscal slippage over rigidly sticking to previous targets, he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1126 ET - Strategy head Michael Saylor thinks that the bottom for bitcoin prices is already in, analysts at Mizuho Securities say in a note. The analysts say that Saylor thinks bitcoin already bottomed out when it traded at around $60,000 in early February. "Saylor reiterated his long-held view that crypto bottoms are driven less by valuation frameworks and more by seller exhaustion," the analysts say, with Saylor characterizing remaining selling pressure on bitcoin as limited while demand is "structurally growing." Cryptocurrency is up across the board in a risk-on trading day for investors following an agreement for a two-week ceasefire in the conflict with Iran. Bitcoin is up 2.6% to $71,100, according to data from LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1124 ET - Treasury yields swing with geopolitical headlines, but will likely stay near current levels, PGIM's Robert Tipp says. He expects the 10-year benchmark to keep floating around 4.25%, granting investors solid returns over time. "It'd be very hard to knock long-term rates out of this kind of normal region," he says. U.S. corporations, in turn, have learned the importance of keep good credit ratings, meaning spreads are likely to remain tight. "I think it is going to be a credit-picker's market," he says, adding his current outlook isn't different from before the war in Iran began. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1105 ET - The dollar will likely remain the dominant reserve currency, but events such as the war in Iran chip away at its status, PGIM's Robert Tipp says. His argument is that other nations now have an added reason to seek alternatives toward a multipolar world. "Ultra-long term, though, we're seeing some damage to the U.S. position as countries are looking to transact energy in Chinese yuan...as a symbol of the rest of the world thinking about how to get along in terms of trade, currencies, and everything else working around the United States." He expects to see more use of gold and stablecoin as alternatives to the dollar. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1102 ET - Investors could start pricing in the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates if the Middle East war is fully resolved, XTB research director Kathleen Brooks says in a note. The news of a two-week cease-fire agreement brought relief to global markets and eased concerns about energy prices pushing up inflation. "If this ceasefire leads to a lasting peace, then the inflationary impact could be lower," she says. Investors have cut back their expectations of the BOE raising interest rates, currently pricing in one BOE rate rise in 2026 from two BOE rate hikes priced in prior to the cease-fire announcement, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1052 ET - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates twice this year, although persistent inflation could spoil the outlook, PGIM's Robert Tipp says. President Trump's Fed pick, Kevin Warsh, who needs confirmation by the Senate, seems inclined to cut but his colleagues could be wary of easing amid above-target inflation. "The odds-on forecast is that you're going to see a couple of rate cuts, but I think you have to keep an open mind because this wouldn't be the first time that you get a new Fed chair that's supposed to cut rates and, lo and behold, they don't." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1042 ET - The coming weeks will see whether the U.S.-Iran cease-fire rally is justified, but "markets are clearly operating on the assumption that the agreement to have a cessation of hostilities is a positive step," PGIM's Robert Tipp says. He thinks markets were already "aggressively priced" before the first U.S.-Israel strikes in Iran, and the hostilities triggered anxious sell-offs now reversed for fear of missing out on the "big trade." Tipp says a resilient U.S. economy and upcoming monetary easing will be the main drivers of investment decisions for the time being. The 10-year yield is at 4.266%, off early lows. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1016 ET - A key question about the Middle East war has been whether it will cause a temporary inflation shock affecting prices or a permanent growth scare with effect on valuation, and "it seems like it is going to just be a price shock," Morgan Stanley Investment Management's CIO Jim Caron says. A price shock means that the market is going to look through it and is going to start to think about the coming months, he says in a webinar. That said, activity data in March is going to be softer "for sure," he says. If the war and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz existed for a long period of time, it could destroy demand and growth expectations significantly, he says. That would reduce earnings and valuations, he adds. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
1011 ET - U.K. two-year government bond yields fall sharply as investors cut back expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates following the U.S.-Iran cease-fire deal. The two-week agreement brought relief to markets, pushing oil prices down and easing concerns about energy-driven inflation. Markets price in an 18% chance of a BOE interest-rate rise in April, down from 32% probability priced in prior to the cease-fire agreement. Two-year gilt yields fall 16 basis points to last trade at 4.176%, having hit a three-week low of 4.142% earlier, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1006 ET - European banks' direct exposure to private credit is tiny, with lending that does exist protected by senior claims to debt and higher-than-typical levels of collateral, Barclays analysts say in a note. Deutsche Bank is the most exposed bank, with private credit accounting for around 5% of its loan book, the analysts calculate. However, the exposure is across a broad mix of well-collateralized loans, the analysts say. The analysts exclude Barclays's exposure to the asset class. Banks will benefit from easing tensions in the Middle East and lower valuation levels, though some investors are wary of buying into banks' dip, the analysts write. A basket of the sector surges 7%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0939 ET - Cryptocurrencies are surging in reaction to the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, but the upside may be limited unless bitcoin can push through its resistance level of around $70,000 to $75,000, says Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau. "If it manages, we could see a rally toward the $90k mark over the coming months," says Puckrin. However, he notes, bitcoin's ability to push through that resistance is linked to the outcome of the ceasefire--if it leads to a reopening to the Strait of Hormuz. "For now, it's a fragile truce at best," says Puckrin. Bitcoin is up 4.8% to around $72,600, while Ethereum rises 7% to $2,263, and XRP climbs 5.2% to $1.39, according to LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 08, 2026 11:34 ET (15:34 GMT)
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