MW Crude-oil futures rise into Trump's deadline as SocGen sees chance prices could top $200
By Steve Goldstein
A woman holds Iran's national flag while standing near a billboard with a sentence reading 'The Strait of Hormuz remains closed' at the Enqelab Square in Tehran, on April 5, 2026.
Crude-oil futures rose on Tuesday ahead of President Donald Trump's self-imposed deadline to unleash attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure.
The lead Brent oil futures contract (BRN00) rose 1.5%, or $1.67, to $111.44 per barrel, as the front-month West Texas Intermediate contract (CL00), which expires in May, jumped 2% to $115.04.
Trump has set an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline for a deal with Iran that would open up the Strait of Hormuz and said he'll otherwise attack power stations and bridges in the country.
Iran so far hasn't shown signs of conceding to these terms, and there were doubts in the marketplace that Trump will carry through on the threats.
"Having experience of the president's shock and awe style of negotiation before, I would suspect that the attack will be called off at the last second," said David Stritch, currency analyst at Caxton.
Commodities analysts at Societe Generale wrote an analysis in which they considered three scenarios.
Analysts led by Mike Haigh, global head of fixed income and commodities research, said a scenario in which Iran imposes transit fees through the Hormuz would be manageable, and that the country could raise revenue of up to 4% of GDP from a levy of between 26 cents and 43 cents per barrel. However, the tolling system would institutionalize rather than solve the friction.
A scenario where the conflict drags into May, before easing, could see prices average $125 per barrel this month before easing slowly. And a third scenario, where not just Hormuz but the Bab el-Mandeb is effectively shut, could see prices surge beyond $200 as Saudi flows would be trapped as well as Russian Red Sea exports, the analysts told clients.
-Steve Goldstein
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 07, 2026 04:30 ET (08:30 GMT)
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