MW Why SpaceX could trade like a meme stock after its blockbuster IPO
By William Gavin
SpaceX has 'a massive narrative, a founder with a loyal following, and a valuation likely driven in part by future potential,' all ingredients for meme-like trading
SpaceX shares have the potential to be volatile after the planned IPO, particularly once the lockup expires and insiders are able to freely sell stock.
From a business perspective, SpaceX may not have much in common with GameStop or AMC. But its stock could end up trading like those classic meme stocks after a highly anticipated initial public offering later this year.
The rocket launcher and satellite maker is planning a public listing that's expected to break records. SpaceX is reportedly going to try and raise as much as $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would make for the largest initial public offering on record.
Experts say to prepare for stock-market volatility after the company goes public.
"I think the stock will be all over the place," PitchBook analyst Franco Granda told MarketWatch. He said he thinks things could get especially choppy once lockups expire, meaning company insiders and early investors are able to sell their shares after an initial restricted period.
SpaceX has the potential to trade like a meme stock, according to Angel Tengulov, a finance professor at the University of Kansas, who has researched how social-media platforms have enabled retail investors to coordinate market-distorting events.
Meme stocks are typically characterized by high trading volumes and price volatility, often driven by social-media trends. Their trading action can be "untethered" from business fundamentals and driven by "speculative fervor, viral momentum," which all can be pretty risky, as described by Roundhill Investments. The firm operates the Roundhill Meme Stock MEME exchange-traded fund.
See: These little-known chip stocks could be winners as SpaceX and Amazon make big satellite pushes
Tengulov said that SpaceX resembles what he called a "narrative stock," since the company is guided by ambitious goals, such as colonizing Mars. Such narratives are "perfect for the internet," he added, likening SpaceX to GameStop $(GME)$ and AMC Entertainment Holdings $(AMC)$, which developed cultlike followings on social media.
SpaceX "clearly has some of the ingredients: a massive narrative, a founder with a loyal following, and a valuation likely driven in part by future potential rather than just current fundamentals," Roundhill CEO Dave Mazza told MarketWatch in emailed comments.
The company, according to Reuters, is earmarking as much as 30% of shares for retail investors and scheduling a meeting with 1,500 of them at an event in June, once its IPO roadshow kicks off. Typically, IPOs allocate just 5% to 10% of shares to retail. But Bret Johnsen, SpaceX's CFO, told bankers on Monday that retail "is going to be a critical part of this and ?a bigger part than [in] any IPO in history," Reuters reported.
A representative for SpaceX did not immediately return a MarketWatch request for comment.
Mazza told MarketWatch that allocating such a large percentage of shares to retail investors increases the odds of meme-stock-like trading behavior after SpaceX lists. Tesla $(TSLA)$, which Musk leads as CEO, also has a sizable base of retail investors who often side with management during key votes, such as the one regarding Musk's controversial compensation package last November.
Read: SpaceX's stock could trade like Tesla 'on steroids' after its IPO, analyst says
Tesla has in the past been referred to as a meme stock, largely because of its share-price volatility and investors' focus on future goals over current fundamentals. JPMorgan's Ryan Brinkman this week warned investors to approach Tesla's stock with a "high degree of caution."
Tesla shares rose over 4% in early trading Wednesday as the broader market rallied. Shares of Tesla had dropped 23% so far this year but were up by about 56% over the last 12 months ahead of the rally.
"Volatility is the name of the game for $TSLA. Always has been. Will almost certainly be the same for SpaceX stock," Tesla influencer and investor Sawyer Merritt wrote on the X platform, owned by Musk, on Tuesday. "We've been through this many times before."
But Andrew Rocco, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, argues that neither Tesla nor SpaceX, once it's listed, would fit the mold of a meme stock. He pointed out that both companies are profitable, which is not often the case with meme stocks.
He does think, he said, that some investors could deem SpaceX's valuation extreme.
SpaceX's December 2025 insider share sale pinned the company's value at roughly $800 billion. Then, after acquiring the cash-burning startup xAI in February, it was valued at $1.25 trillion. SpaceX is now seeking a $1.75 trillion valuation, which would make it more valuable than Broadcom $(AVGO)$ or Tesla based on those companies' current market capitalizations.
SpaceX recorded earnings before interest, taxation, amortization and depreciation of $7.5 billion on revenue of about $16 billion, according to PitchBook. A $1.75 trillion valuation would be about 106 times SpaceX's estimated revenue.
As the company prepares for a public launch, experts have said SpaceX's IPO could wind up a friend or foe to the space sector, which itself is no stranger to meme stocks. Roundhill's MEME ETF includes both AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Rocket Lab (RKLB) among its top holdings, while JPMorgan recently noted that Planet Labs $(PL)$ and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) are among the most-hyped stocks on social media.
On one hand, SpaceX's IPO could bring more attention to the space trade, boosting trading activity and volatility for companies like AST SpaceMobile as investors seek "sympathy" trades, Mazza told MarketWatch via email. On the other hand, SpaceX could attract institutional investors and absorb interest that might've otherwise gone to smaller stocks favored by retail investors, he added.
See: Why Intel is teaming with Elon Musk on an ambitious chip-making venture
-William Gavin
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April 08, 2026 10:15 ET (14:15 GMT)
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