The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1006 ET - Global markets have shown relative resilience, only posting mild selloffs amid the Middle East war. This modest reaction looks justified, Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen says in a note. Recently released U.S. jobs data and eurozone purchasing managers index survey show the economies remain sturdy, supporting markets' performance, Allen says. In addition, central banks are not signalling aggressive interest rate rises unlike during the 2022 oil shock when major central banks strongly supported rate rises, he says. "Given today's crisis doesn't yet meet the severity thresholds of past oil shocks, the more limited market reaction makes sense." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0932 ET - U.S. natural gas futures rise with the likely final cold spell in the northern U.S. seen petering out in the next few days and the market waiting for hot weather to lift demand. "The transition point nationally with cooling demand surpassing heating demand often does not occur until mid-to-late May," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. While prices have held up over the past month with the war in Iran, bearish fundamental pressure is mounting, he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.8% at $2.862/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0923 ET - Oil futures are higher as the U.S. hits military targets on Iran's Kharg Island ahead of President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has threatened a massive bombardment of bridges and power plants if Iran doesn't comply. The market "appears to be pricing in either another delay in Trump's threat to attack Iran's energy infrastructure or is discounting some type of a deal," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. "An attack on Iran's energy infrastructure would represent a major escalation in the war that has already been ramped up to a level unexpected at the beginning of last month." WTI is up 2.3% at $114.96 a barrel and Brent is 0.7% higher at $110.54. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0919 ET -- Pembina Pipeline's guidance through 2023 brings the company in line with its peers, says Scotiabank's Robert Hope. In a report, the analyst notes that the energy infrastructure company set its growth outlook through 2030, targeting 5%-7% compound annual fee-based adjusted Ebitda-per-share growth. The analyst says the targets represent a roughly 100 basis-point step-up from its prior 2024-2026 growth target, "and more in-line with its Canadian pipeline peers, which we view favorably." The growth is underpinned by improved returns on existing assets as utilization increases, and with the incremental contribution from projects under construction as well as a portfolio of opportunities designed to extend the franchise, Hope says. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0917 ET - Further escalation in the Middle East could push oil prices higher and accompanying inflation concerns would drive government bond yields further upward, DZ Bank analysts Christian Lenk and Christian Reicherter say in a note. Markets focus on President Trump's Tuesday-night deadline to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as well as on Friday's release of U.S. CPI data for March, which are expected to show increase in both the headline and core inflation. Government bond yields are currently rising again in the eurozone, with the 10-year German Bund yield up 5.4 basis points at 3.042%, according to Tradeweb. U.S. Treasury yields are stable to marginally lower for maturities of up 10 years, while ultralong Treasury yields edge higher. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0908 ET - Oil prices rise but remain in line with earlier levels after President Trump threatened that the Iranian civilization "will die tonight" if Tehran doesn't agree to a deal by 8 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday. Brent crude is up 1% to $110.82 a barrel, while WTI gains 2.6% to $115.37 a barrel. "As of now, it seems like the U.S.-Iran war is about to escalate to the next level, and that we might wake up to a scenario where oil and gas infrastructure suffers more long-term damage," analysts at DNB say. Earlier on Tuesday, the U.S. conducted more than 50 strikes on military targets on Kharg Island, the site of Iran's main oil terminal. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0640 ET - Oil prices trim earlier gains but markets remain on edge after President Trump gave Iran until 8 pm Eastern time to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for June delivery is up 0.1% to $109.94 a barrel, while WTI futures for May rise 1.2% to $113.72 a barrel. Prices opened the session higher, with the international oil benchmark above $111 a barrel and the U.S. oil gauge at around $115 a barrel. "All eyes are now on Trump for any signs of a deal or another deadline extension," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "Combined with reports of increased shipments through the Strait in recent days, such developments could ease the risk premium and weigh on futures prices." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0621 ET - Palm oil futures closed lower, likely due to profit-taking, says Kenanga Futures in a note. Despite the fall, crude palm oil prices could be supported by Thailand's move to impose stricter controls on exports effective Tuesday, says CIMB Securities' Ivy Ng. The policy signals a broader trend of prioritizing domestic supply security amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, which could tighten global edible oil balances, she says. However, the overall boost to palm oil prices may be modest given Thailand's relatively small share of global exports, she adds. CIMB Securities raises its 2026 and 2027 average crude palm oil projections to 4,400 ringgit and 4,500 ringgit a metric ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia contract for June delivery ended 45 ringgit lower at 4,766 ringgit a ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0601 ET - Sterling's direction largely depends on developments in the Iran war and oil prices in the absence of notable U.K. economic data Tuesday, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. Sterling remains sensitive to swings in oil prices and broader market volatility given the U.K.'s reliance on imported energy and a mixed domestic outlook, they say. This backdrop should keep the Bank of England cautious about raising interest rates, they say. "Our bias remains that without clear progress towards peace, sterling versus dollar rallies will be short-lived as safe haven demand for the dollar persists." Sterling rises 0.3% to $1.3271 as oil prices ease on tentative hopes for a de-escalation in the war. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8715 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0519 ET - Goldman Sachs trimmed its full-year copper price forecast, citing softer demand expectations and a larger surplus. The U.S. bank now sees three-month futures at an average of $12,650 a metric ton, compared with previous estimates of $12,850 a ton. With a 0.4-percentage-point hit to global GDP growth expected from the energy price shock stemming from the Iran war, Goldman lowers its forecast for global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2% previously, and says it now expects a surplus of 490,000 tons from 380,000 tons previously. In mid-morning trade, LME copper is up 0.6% to $12,426.50 a ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0507 ET - The effects of high energy prices are likely to be seen in the U.S. inflation data for March set to be released on Friday, BlackRock strategists say in a note. The consensus forecast by economists in a WSJ poll is for annual inflation for March to rise to 3.3% from 2.4% in February. The Middle East war has created supply chain constraints that are expected to push up inflation, the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0439 ET - What oil-price strength has created, and will continue to create, at least in the short term, is a more structural driver of inflationary pressures, First Abu Dhabi Bank analysts say in a note. Inflationary pressures have fueled a selloff in rates amid a removal of central bank rate-cut expectations, they say. Prewar expectations of two to three Federal Reserve rate reductions this year have been priced out. Money markets currently expect U.S. policy rates to remain largely unchanged in 2026, with a very small tightening bias, according to LSEG data. Even more hawkish scenarios are priced in for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England by year-end, with hikes of 74 basis points and 56 basis points, respectively, "largely as a consequence of Europe's imported energy-based inflation dynamics." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 07, 2026 10:06 ET (14:06 GMT)
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