Euro Could Outperform on Sticky ECB Rate Rise Bets -- Market Talk

Dow Jones04-09

0731 GMT - Expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates could allow the euro to outperform, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. Markets are still pricing in 58 basis points of ECB rate increases by year-end even after scaling back monetary policy tightening bets after oil prices eased in response to the U.S.-Iran cease-fire. "We doubt that a modest further decline in energy prices alone would be enough to push ECB pricing below 50bp," Pesole says. With no permanent cease-fire in place and uncertainty around oil flows persisting, the ECB is unlikely to rush toward a looser policy stance, he says. Sticky ECB rate rise bets favor the euro returning to $1.1700-$1.1730, he says. The euro trades flat at $1.1663. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 09, 2026 03:37 ET (07:37 GMT)

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With no permanent cease-fire in place and uncertainty around oil flows persisting, the ECB is unlikely to rush toward a looser policy stance, he says. Sticky ECB rate rise bets favor the euro returning to $1.1700-$1.1730, he says. The euro trades flat at $1.1663. 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Markets are still pricing in 58 basis points of ECB rate increases by year-end even after scaling back monetary policy tightening bets after oil prices eased in response to the U.S.-Iran cease-fire. \"We doubt that a modest further decline in energy prices alone would be enough to push ECB pricing below 50bp,\" Pesole says. With no permanent cease-fire in place and uncertainty around oil flows persisting, the ECB is unlikely to rush toward a looser policy stance, he says. Sticky ECB rate rise bets favor the euro returning to $1.1700-$1.1730, he says. The euro trades flat at $1.1663. 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