By Doug Busch
Few companies better capture the evolution of the modern economy than Amazon.com, whose reach now extends far beyond e-commerce into cloud computing, advertising, and logistics. As both a consumer and technology bellwether, Amazon's performance continues to offer a valuable window into broader trends across spending, innovation, and digital infrastructure. CEO Andy Jassy brought positive news this week when he downplayed fears of an AI bubble and indicated plans to maintain spending on the technology.
The stock is the largest holding in the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF, comprising 25% of the top-heavy fund. The stock trades 10% below its most recent 52 week high. It jumped 6% in yesterday's session to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average and was up more than 11% going in to today. If that holds through the close, it would be Amazon's first double-digit weekly gain since January 2023.
Back in February I wrote about Amazon's possible double bottom at the very round $200 number. That has played out so far. Let's now attempt to gauge where the stock might head next.
The daily chart illustrates the powerful move since the bullish harami candle on March 30 right off $200 number:
That level also formed a double bottom when the bullish morning star was completed with a doji candle on Feb. 13. On the ratio chart against the second-largest holding in the XLY in Tesla, Amazon has broken above a bullish inverse head and shoulders formation. Thursday's gap completed a bullish island reversal reclaiming the 200-day simple moving average. A double bottom base is setting up if strength continues to materialize with a $247.88 pivot.
One can enter on a pullback at $230 and look for a move toward the very round $300 in the second half of the year, which would be a gain of 29% from current prices. Remain bullish above $210. Amazon was trading around $238 Friday.
On the weekly chart, we can first see the break above a short downtrend compared with the more equally-weighted State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF:
When comparing a retail stock to the XLY, the comparison primarily reflects Amazon and Tesla, which combined make up 42% of the ETF's holdings. This week Amazon is breaking above a bear flag, which began with a nasty 12% loss the first week of February. We know that from false moves often come fast ones in the opposite direction. Additionally, Amazon has recouped its 50-week SMA. Previous occurrences in August 2024 and May 2025 saw the stock advance by 44% and 31%, respectively.
Amazon has delivered before, and the setup suggests it may not be finished yet.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
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April 10, 2026 11:13 ET (15:13 GMT)
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