Is It Too Late To Consider Deere (DE) After Its Strong Multi‑Year Share Price Run?

Simply Wall St.04-10

If you are wondering whether Deere’s current share price lines up with its fundamentals, or if the stock is running ahead of itself, this breakdown is designed to help you judge the value story using ...

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At a last close of US$609.32, Deere has logged returns of 6.8% over the past 7 days, 1.6% over 30 days, 30.5% year to date, 36.4% over 1 year, 65.3% over 3 years and 70.6% over 5 years. These figures provide important context for any valuation work you do next. Recent coverage around Deere has focused on its role as a key capital goods company tied to agriculture and heavy machinery, as investors watch how the business responds to sector trends and spending cycles. This backdrop helps explain why the stock’s performance figures matter so much when you are weighing what counts as a reasonable valuation. On Simply Wall St’s 6 point valuation checklist, Deere currently scores 2 out of 6. The next sections will walk through how different valuation methods assess the stock, and then finish with a practical way to pull those signals together into a clearer long term view.  Deere scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Deere Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to a present value. It is essentially asking what all those future cash earnings are worth in today’s dollars. For Deere, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $3.7b. Analysts provide detailed estimates out to 2029, and Simply Wall St then extends those projections further, with Free Cash Flow for 2030 expected at $12.4b, and additional years extrapolated beyond that. These projected cash flows, all in US$, are discounted back to today and aggregated to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value of about $686.04 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $609.32, this model suggests the stock is roughly 11.2% below that DCF estimate, indicating that the shares may be trading at a discount based on this cash flow analysis. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Deere is undervalued by 11.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 64 more high quality undervalued stocks. DE Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Deere. Approach 2: Deere Price vs Earnings (P/E) For a profitable company like Deere, the P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It links directly to what the business currently earns, which many investors find easier to relate to than longer term cash flow forecasts. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth outlook and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher uncertainty can point to a lower one. Deere currently trades on a P/E of 34.19x. That sits above both the Machinery industry average P/E of 27.62x and the peer average of 25.69x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Deere is 39.80x. This is its proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E might be given Deere’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk factors. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for Deere specific characteristics rather than treating all Machinery stocks as similar. Since the Fair Ratio of 39.80x is higher than the current P/E of 34.19x, this multiples based view suggests the shares may be trading below that Fair Ratio. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:DE P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Deere Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives are introduced here as a simple way for you to attach your own story about Deere to specific numbers like fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins, and then see how that story compares with the current share price. A Narrative on Simply Wall St links your view of Deere’s business, such as whether construction strength and an anticipated upswing in large agriculture can support earnings, directly to a financial forecast and an implied fair value, all in one place on the Community page that is already used by millions of investors. These Narratives then help you decide what to do next by comparing that fair value to today’s price. They do not stay static; they are refreshed when new data such as news, earnings or updated analyst expectations arrive. For Deere, one investor might align with the more optimistic Community view that combines higher earnings assumptions and a fair value around US$793.0. Another might prefer the more cautious view tied to a fair value closer to US$500.0. Both perspectives can sit side by side so you can see exactly which assumptions lead to which conclusion. For Deere, however, here are previews of two leading Deere narratives: 🐂 Deere Bull Case Fair value: US$664.01 per share Implied discount to this fair value: about 8.3% versus the last close of US$609.32 Revenue growth assumption in the model: about 58.9%  Analysts backing this view see precision agriculture, automation and software as key drivers for higher margin revenue and stronger net margins over time. They anchor on improving farm conditions outside North America, lower inventories and a build-to-retail approach as support for more resilient earnings through the cycle. The fair value of US$664.01 relies on earnings reaching US$8.4b by 2029, a future P/E of 27.5x and a 9.31% discount rate, with a spread of analyst targets between US$500.0 and US$793.0.  🐻 Deere Bear Case Fair value: US$500.00 per share Implied premium to this fair value: about 21.9% versus the last close of US$609.32 Revenue growth assumption in the model: described as flat, with a modeled change of about 80.9%  This more cautious view focuses on the risk that current construction demand, high equipment pricing and tariff costs near US$1.2b for 2026 could be hard to sustain, which may pressure margins. Bearish analysts assume more modest margin expansion to about 13.4% and earnings of roughly US$6.1b by 2029, using a 9.24% discount rate and a future P/E of 28.5x. They frame US$500.0 as a fair value that sits toward the lower end of the analyst range, implying that at today’s price the market may already be baking in stronger growth and profitability than this scenario allows.  Seeing both narratives side by side highlights the trade-off between paying for a stronger precision tech and cycle recovery story versus allowing for softer margins, steadier volumes and higher tariff and cost pressure. If you want the full context around these bullish and bearish paths, including the detailed numbers, risks and valuation work, To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Deere on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. Do you think there's more to the story for Deere? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:DE 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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