Trump's Iran War Sends Gasoline To Biggest Monthly Surge Since 1967 — 6 Energy Stocks To Watch

Benzinga_recent_news04-10

American wallets felt the impact of the war in Iran on Friday after the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report confirmed what drivers had already felt at the pump. Gasoline prices posted their ...

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That is a 39% increase in roughly six weeks, the fastest peacetime gasoline price shock in modern American history.\nThink of it this way: the average American drives about 15,000 miles a year and gets around 28 miles per gallon. \nAt $2.98, that was a roughly $1,600 annual fuel bill. At $4.15, it is now $2,200. The war has cost the average driver an extra $600 a year — and counting.\nThe energy index as a whole surged 10.9% in March — its largest monthly move since September 2005. Beyond gasoline, fuel oil rose 30.7%, its sharpest monthly climb since February 2000. \nAirline fares jumped 2.7%, the first visible signal of jet fuel costs passing through into consumer services, with jet fuel prices up 75% since the start of the war according to Goldman Sachs.\nJeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said “at least eighty percent” of the 0.9% monthly CPI increase was energy-related, rising even higher if airfares are included given transportation’s 16% weight in the index. \nRoach highlighted that core services, excluding housing — the Fed’s cleanest read on underlying price pressure — rose just 0.18%. That’s “the lowest monthly gain in almost a year,” he said, and the trajectory should not be overlooked. \nExpect another one to two hot prints driven by transportation services and durable goods, he adds. And second-order energy effects will add roughly 0.2 percentage points over the next few months. \n“The Fed clearly is on hold for the next several meetings,” Roach said.\nBernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the Federal Reserve will likely look past the energy supply shock as a one-time boost to inflation and focus instead on any weakening in the labor market, which is historically hurt by energy shocks with a lag. \nHe cautioned that the April CPI will also be uncomfortably strong: pump prices have continued to rise this month and a statistical quirk from the government shutdown will unwind, adding another unusual source of upward pressure. \n“Despite the temptation to compare to the last major geopolitical episode, this isn’t 2022,” Yaros said.\nChris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said, “the first inflation data from after the war in Iran confirmed what everyone was worried about” — the oil shock drove an extremely high headline CPI number of 0.9% month-over-month. \nHe noted the core reading of 0.2% gives the economy room to absorb the energy shock, even if consumers filling up at $4-plus and buying groceries are unlikely to feel it. \n“The duration of the war matters as does the extremely important Strait of Hormuz,” Zaccarelli said: a temporary supply shock leaves room for the Fed to cut by year-end, but a sustained one forces the central bank to hold rates for the entire year.\nThe same day as the CPI release, Goldman Sachs analysts Alexa Petrick and Neil Mehta upgraded two refiner stocks and identifying the clearest beneficiaries of elevated crack spreads and a structurally tighter energy supply chain. \nAnalysts said that “20% of global jet fuel and 10% of global diesel supply flow through the Strait of Hormuz,” and noted that “disruptions over the past month have further contributed to the tighter long-term setup” — with their commodities team estimating 2.1 million barrels per day of capacity outages in the Middle East. \nThe firm sees 7% upside to 2027–2028 consensus estimates across its refining coverage and raised its West Coast crack spread forecasts by over 15% on average, to $36 per barrel in 2026 and $33 per barrel in 2027–2029.\nGoldman’s preferred expression of the West Coast tightness theme is Par Pacific Holdings Inc. at the SMID-cap level and Marathon Petroleum Corp. among large caps. \nFor the RIN insulation theme, the firm highlights Delek US Holdings Inc. and HF Sinclair Corp.  RIN insulation refers to a refiner’s ability to avoid paying for Renewable Identification Numbers — the compliance credits the U.S. government requires fuel producers to purchase each year under the Renewable Fuel Standard. \nRefiners that receive Small Refinery Exemptions from the EPA are excused from that obligation entirely; in a high-RIN-price environment, that exemption can be worth hundreds of millions of dollars in avoided costs. \nFor investors seeking exposure to widening light-heavy crude differentials — a longer-dated structural call driven by Canadian production growth, Venezuelan supply recovery and an eventual OPEC+ unwind — Goldman points to Valero Energy Corp. and PBF Energy Inc.\nThe open question is the one no model can answer: how long does the Strait of Hormuz stay closed. \nA temporary shock with a clean resolution is one scenario. A grinding, multi-month disruption that bleeds into food, freight and manufacturing costs is another. \nThe March CPI data settled one debate — the war has arrived in American prices. It opened a larger one about whether this is a spike or a new inflationary regime.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2626195091","isCrawlerRequest":true}