By Anita Hamilton, Callum Keown and Avi Salzman
Oil prices seesawed Thursday after Israel indicated that it was open to peace talks with Lebanon. But the U.S. benchmark was still trading just shy of the $100 a barrel mark shortly after 4 p.m. Eastern time.
Ongoing strikes in Lebanon have kept tensions elevated and threatened to derail the detente. Iran has said that Lebanon is included in the cease-fire, but the U.S. says it's not. That may be a deal breaker for Iran, which has called the strikes a violation of the agreement reached Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz has remained largely closed to shipping traffic, even though its reopening was a key term of the two-week cease-fire. Yesterday, just five ships passed through the critical waterway, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Only one, Iranian-flagged TOUR 2, was a tanker. The others were general and bulk cargo vessels.
Since the cease-fire began Tuesday night just nine ships have successfully traversed the strait, of which just four were tankers.
Ship-tracking service Kpler reported Thursday one tanker that made it through on Thursday was carrying liquefied natural gas, while another 14 such vessels remained "stranded" in the Gulf. "The operating environment in the Strait therefore remains unchanged, with permissive passings continuing under the same conditions as before," according to Kpler's MarineTraffic data service.
After rising 5% early Thursday, Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, settled up 1.2% to $95.92. Meanwhile West Texas Intermediate futures -- the U.S. standard -- settled up 1.2% to $95.92 after peaking at nearly 9% up. But both continued to rise later in the day, with WTI trading hovering around $99 a barrel by late afternoon.
A Very Different Mood on Day Two
Thursday's prices reflect a very different mood on the detente compared with a day ago. On Wednesday, both benchmarks tumbled sharply, with WTI settling down 16% and Brent settling down 13% following news of the two-week cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran.
Oil's price moves reflect growing concerns about whether the two-week cease-fire can hold. Already there are signs of cracks. Israel's strikes on Lebanon undermine international efforts to bring peace and stability to the Middle East, Pakistan's government said Thursday.
There are still few signs that the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal. Iran is asserting control of the waterway, and has begun setting up a fee-based system to let ships through. The fees could cost $1 per barrel, according to some reports -- a level that wouldn't impact oil prices much but would change the nature of the waterway from an open system to a toll road, according to Capital Economics.
That's a big problem for Iran's neighbors, who previously got free access to the strait. "This moment requires clarity. So let's be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled," wrote Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, on LinkedIn on Thursday.
Trump reiterated in his post that the U.S. and Iran have agreed the strait will be open and safe. He also said the U.S. would help with the traffic buildup in a separate post Wednesday. More than 400 vessels remain " effectively stranded" in the region, vessel-tracking company MarineTraffic said Wednesday.
Iran has told mediators it will be limiting the number of ships passing through to around a dozen a day and charge tolls, The Wall Street Journal reported.
What's Next for Oil
Analysts say that the oil market's fate depends on how quickly traffic restarts.
Goldman Sachs analysts wrote late Wednesday that they expect energy flows through the strait to start to recover this weekend, followed by a gradual one-month recovery in exports to prewar levels. They kept their fourth-quarter Brent crude forecast unchanged at $80 a barrel. But "we continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside on net from potentially longer disruptions and persistent crude production losses."
Goldman thinks high prices could last throughout the year in the event that the cease-fire doesn't hold. If the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed by a month, prices could average $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, Struyven estimates. If Gulf countries can't fully restore their production, prices could average $115.
UBS analysts said important questions still need to be answered, such as "whether ships will be happy to enter the Gulf, especially as we get closer to the end of the two-week period."
They added there is also the question of whether Gulf countries would be willing to send tankers through the strait under a process controlled by Iran. "This may be the case in particular with Saudi Arabia and UAE," they said, noting the two countries had a combined four million barrels a day of liquids production shut-in in the Middle East.
UBS also forecast Brent crude to fall to $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
Those price targets rely on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to start picking up -- and there's no guarantee of that right now.
Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com, Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com and Avi Salzman at avi.salzman@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 09, 2026 16:57 ET (20:57 GMT)
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